The more-than-Dan dilemma: Allan has to convince voters and colleagues, quickly

Neither Labor nor Coalition MPs can say with 100 per cent certainty who will lead them to the next Victorian election.

That’s not to say any threat to either of the major party leaders – Jacinta Allan or John Pesutto – is imminent, but it’s a reflection of the concern across parliament that the current leaders may not present them with the best chance of winning in 2026.

New polling gives Opposition Leader John Pesutto more reason to smile than Premier Jacinta Allan.Credit: Joe Armao

On the face of it, such musings seem premature for Labor and verging on absurd for the Liberals when you consider that – for the first time in a long time – the Coalition has a comfortable lead over Labor.

According to the latest survey by Resolve Political Monitor, voters are underwhelmed by Labor’s performance in the past 12 months, while the Coalition’s primary support has hit 37 per cent, giving the opposition a 10-point primary lead over the government.

On paper that’s a good result, but when you talk to Liberal MPs, a different picture about their position emerges.

The primary concern, across all factional groupings, is whether that vote will hold up once the legal stoush between Pesutto and Moira Deeming heads to trial in a fortnight.

Ultimately, one party in the case will be “vindicated” by the court, but you don’t have to be a King’s Counsel to understand that there are rarely many winners in defamation cases. Particularly one that will air political grievances and force MPs to effectively pick a side in the nasty saga.

In recent days, lawyers have begun contacting witnesses (including MPs) about their court dates. Deeming will be the first in the stand from September 16, with many of her alleged backers expected to give their accounts from around September 19, in what will be an enjoyable birthday treat for the premier.

The question for the Liberals is whether the evidence, embarrassment and pressure will force them to take the plunge and replace Pesutto as leader – potentially with any number of candidates being sold as future leaders, including Brad Rowswell, Sam Groth, Brad Battin – early in the trial.

Or do they leave it up to a federal court judge to decide Pesutto’s fate; a decision that could be months away, particularly if you factor in any potential appeals.

With the party room in a waiting game, the question Liberal MPs are asking themselves is whether any benefits flow from a leadership change, and if their 10-point lead over the government will absorb any midterm coup.

The question they must ask is: what benefit can a new leader bring to the Coalition when it is finally in with a chance, and does that outweigh the bloody display of disunity?

For a long time now, Victorian Labor has banked on the Liberal Party making the wrong choice in such predicaments, the sort of terrible decisions that have seen them repeatedly return to the opposition benches.

But now things are different.

Behind their bravado about the Victorian Liberals being a joke, some ministers harbour concerns about Labor’s dip in support and whether Allan is capable of turning things around before election day.

On any reading of political history, Labor – regardless of who’s in charge – should be running out of puff.

Optimists within the caucus insist (and hope) that the current rut is just midterm blues from a disgruntled electorate battling tough economic conditions and looking for someone to blame. They argue, somewhat rightly, that Allan has been left with little money, a mountain of policy problems and dwindling talent on her frontbench after almost a decade in power.

But there are those who fear Labor’s problems run a little deeper. They are concerned that Allan’s media appearances aren’t cutting through and that she will continue to struggle to appeal to voters.

Particularly if the Coalition’s depiction of her as the minister who oversaw many of the state’s infrastructure blowouts, as well as the Commonwealth Games saga, starts to stick.

For Allan to succeed, she needs to convince voters and her colleagues that she is not Andrews-lite.

She must prove she is capable of making tough calls on budget repairs, and factoring into that is how she chooses to proceed with the Suburban Rail Loop, an increasingly polarising project among the caucus.

Unlike Pesutto, Allan has more time on her side.

Then there is the National Party. It is often forgotten in leadership chatter due to a presumed stability, but there is a now a growing number of opposition MPs convinced this year will be Peter Walsh’s last as leader.

That opens the door to two primary candidates, Gippsland South MP Danny O’Brien and Emma Kealy from Lowan, who is understood to be Walsh’s preferred choice.

The difference here is that Walsh’s departure will come at a time of his choosing, and will probably be free of the bloodletting and collateral damage destined to dog the major parties.

Annika Smethurst is state political editor.

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