The Liberal Party is going to war with itself in court, and the only winner will be Jacinta Allan

“Our only hope now is that Iran invades Israel, and only then might this saga stay out of the papers,” one Liberal MP quipped this week.

The saga, of course, is the courtroom showdown between Opposition Leader John Pesutto and ousted MP Moira Deeming.

Opposition Leader John Pesutto and MP Moira Deeming.Credit: Darrian Traynor

Starting in 10 days, a judge will be asked to decide over the course of three weeks whether, on the balance of probabilities, Pesutto made imputations, including that Deeming “supports, sympathises with or associates with white supremacists and neo-Nazis”.

Yet, it’s difficult to find a Liberal MP who thinks the judge’s verdict will be the most damaging aspect of this case.

If one of Deeming’s ultimate aims was Pesutto’s demise, Liberal MPs I’ve spoken to have broadly conceded that she is likely to be granted her wish.

From September 16, a handful of current Liberals MPs, including the leadership team and members of Pesutto’s staff will face a very public cross-examination from the country’s most formidable barristers.

Any MPs who dismiss the seriousness of the situation do so at their peril.

This is not a weekend press conference at Glenferrie Station where MPs bat away a few thorny questions by declaring it isn’t in their portfolio area or that they haven’t been briefed.

In any case, civil or criminal, the credibility of witnesses is crucial. And the aim of both sides will be to challenge the credibility of witnesses. In this case, it includes elected members of parliament, shadow ministers and the opposition leader.

Liberal MPs will likely be asked, under oath, about the leadership team’s move to expel Deeming in March 2023. Any conflicting accounts from MPs and staff, including aides who have since left Pesutto’s office, will further stoke division as witnesses strive to defend their advice and decisions.

Any political strategist will tell you that disunity is one of the greatest challenges when it comes to winning elections. How is the public expected to trust a politician if they don’t have the support of their own colleagues?

The case will also give the public an insight into the underbelly of the Victorian Liberal Party – how the players communicate behind the scenes and how they may have used the media to their advantage.

Among the witnesses there remains a naive confidence from some MPs who expect they will be called during the trial but who insist they will be able to make their point without any personal toll. The more shrewd realise that once they are in the witness box it’s easy to lose control of the narrative.

Putting aside the possibility of any adverse or critical findings, this case carries the risk of exposing disunity through the introduction of additional adverse material.

Text messages and emails that will be tendered as evidence could damage the credibility of not just the current leadership team but future party leaders. The ethics and practices of the wider party room will be scrutinised and the credibility of its members will be at stake.

The best any MP facing cross-examination can hope for is that the judge finds them an honest and reliable witness. But what if he finds them to be dishonest and unreliable? Hardly something they’ll want to include in their re-election material.

There is a view in the party room that Deeming, who has already lost her position as a Liberal MP, and sits on the crossbench, has little left to lose. But for her, beyond the profound personal and financial impact, the stakes are also high.

This week we were provided an insight into the strategy of Pesutto’s legal team when the opposition leader’s lawyer, Matthew Collins, KC, argued that correspondence showed Deeming had an “engagement with journalists from all media outlets, including at times, seeking advice from journalists on maximising the amount of damage to Mr Pesutto”.

An excerpt from her first affidavit was also read aloud in court, in which she alleges she felt “powerless” and that she had to trust the issue could be “resolved privately”.

In recent days Liberal MPs have begun openly discussing the very real prospect that this case will trigger a change to the leadership team, possibly in the first sitting week in October. That’s if there is still an alternative candidate left unscathed by the trial.

If Pesutto and his leadership survive the case, there remains the possibility the judgment – which might not be handed down until 2025 – will bring more instability, particularly if it comes out during a federal election campaign.

While mediation has repeatedly failed, sources say a settlement still remains a possibility, even once the trial is under way. If, however, the trial runs its course, there will only be one winner: Premier Jacinta Allan.

Annika Smethurst is state political editor.

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