Pesutto is Libs’ most popular recent leader. It’s not likely that will save him

Victorian Liberals are poised to jettison their most popular leader in recent history, based on expert analysis of poll results, and state MPs are already speaking about John Pesutto’s reign in the past tense.

Resolve Strategic director Jim Reed examined 21 consecutive polls dating back to mid-2021 and found Pesutto had performed better than former opposition leaders Michael O’Brien and Matthew Guy on key measures.

Opposition Leader John Pesutto.Credit: Eddie Jim

“Pesutto is preferred premier, less disliked than [Premier Jacinta] Allan and holds a primary vote lead over Labor,” Reed said.

“This is more than his predecessors managed, yet he’s facing a challenge to his leadership from within. This is abnormal, but Victorian politics in 2024 has been neither a normal place nor time, particularly the opposition benches.”

The scramble for the top job has also sparked concern about the lack of women among the names being openly thrown around for a new leadership team – potentially spearheaded by Berwick MP Brad Battin.

Among those being touted are former tennis player Sam Groth as Battin’s deputy, Brighton MP James Newbury as shadow treasurer and ex-health minister David Davis as upper house leader.

Such a deal would leave current finance spokeswoman Jess Wilson – a moderate considered a strong performer even by Labor ministers and who was touted as a possible deputy leader – without a high-level portfolio.

Five Coalition sources, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal matters, said they expected Wilson and her backers were no longer needed by Battin’s conservative camp after the defection of a handful of moderates.

“We are a complete rabble,” one Liberal said.

It is not yet known who would be deputy upper house leader under a Battin-Groth team.

The leadership talk has prompted Hilma’s Network – an organisation set up to recruit, support and promote Liberal women – to weigh in urging MPs to ensure at least one woman is part of any future leadership team.

The Liberals traditionally have four MPs in leadership positions: the leader, deputy Liberal leader, and a leader and deputy in the upper house.

“In the [Pesutto] team we had just one woman and three men,” Hilma’s Network executive director Charlotte Mortlock said. “If they think they can take on a female premier by going backwards and not having a single woman in the leadership ranks, they are naive and not serious about winning.

“It’s not about ticking a box. It is about acknowledging the merit of the impressive women we have in the team and showcasing them to the public. If we don’t promote women, the public assumes we don’t have any. And that doesn’t go well with voters.”

Another Liberal, who also wished to remain anonymous, suggested Battin had failed the first test of leadership before he had even started.

“It’s disappointing that the incoming leader has stepped away from a unity deal that’s in the best interests of the Liberal Party and all Victorians,” they said.

“Victorians want to see political leaders that reflect their communities. They want to see young and capable women in positions of leadership.

“At the first opportunity, the incoming leader has failed to guarantee that his leadership team will reflect Victorians.”

But a Battin supporter, also speaking on the condition of anonymity, hit back, saying some moderates were crying foul because they no longer had the numbers.

“The Liberal Party is better than just picking people because of their gender,” the source said, adding that a Battin-Groth leadership would represent the end of the “inner east” clique. They said conservative stalwart Beverley McArthur could end up deputy upper house leader.

Pesutto became leader in late 2022, winning a narrow party room vote over Battin after Matthew Guy stepped down shortly after losing the state election.

Jim Reed’s analysis of Resolve Political Monitor surveys – conducted exclusively for The Age going back to O’Brien’s leadership in mid-2021 – found Pesutto was the most popular opposition leader since then on three key measures: net likeability, preferred premier and primary vote.

The final survey before the 2022 election put the Coalition’s primary vote at 36 per cent. The most recent poll, conducted in October and November of this year, had the opposition on 38 per cent. Just before O’Brien was overthrown by Guy in late 2021, the Coalition was on 35 per cent.

The most recent Resolve survey had Pesutto’s net likeability at minus 8, compared with Premier Jacinta Allan’s minus 17. Just before the 2022 election, Guy’s net likeability was minus 14, while then-premier Daniel Andrews’ rating was plus 3.

Before he was deposed, O’Brien’s rating was minus 9.

Pesutto overtook Allan as preferred premier for the first time in November. Thirty per cent of eligible voters said they would prefer him as premier, compared with 29 per cent for Allan. Forty-one per cent of voters were undecided.

Critics of Pesutto maintain the Coalition would be performing even better in the polls if the Hawthorn MP were no longer opposition leader.

Liberal MPs set aside their differences – and their phones – on Monday to attend the funeral of former federal Liberal minister Kevin Andrews at Melbourne’s St Patrick’s Cathedral.

Wilson and current shadow treasurer Brad Rowswell were spotted walking in with Liberal senator James Paterson, while Guy was also there. Pesutto did not attend.

Liberal MP Jess Wilson (left), Senator James Paterson (centre) and Victorian shadow treasurer Brad Rowswell attend former federal minister Kevin Andrews’ state funeral on Monday. Credit: Eddie Jim

The embattled opposition leader made a last-ditch effort on Sunday to save his job by agreeing to readmit exiled MP Moira Deeming – whose successful defamation case against Pesutto sparked the latest ructions – to the party room.

Liberal MPs will vote on Deeming’s readmission this Friday. A leadership spill is expected to occur at that meeting.

Reed said the Deeming affair appeared to be “more of a trigger than a root cause”.

“The fault lines and brittle structures have to be there already for this sort of tremor to have such an impact,” he said.

Reed said a party wanting to form government required stability and unity before voters would be inclined to hand them the keys to power – no matter how much people disliked the incumbent.

Separately, Labor confirmed on Monday that high school teacher and CFA volunteer John Lister would run as the party’s candidate in the byelection in Werribee to replace former treasurer Tim Pallas.

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