By Clay Lucas and Benjamin Preiss
Property buybacks could be needed in flood-prone areas along the Maribyrnong River, according to a new report that also urges improvements to forecasting and early warning systems in Melbourne’s inner west.
The review, commissioned by Melbourne Water into flooding that inundated hundreds of homes and businesses caused tens of millions of dollars in damage in October 2022, was released on Friday.
Lee Lanzafame at his Maribyrnong home. One year on from the floods, the ground level is still not repaired.Credit: Simon Schluter
The water authority will ask Planning Minister Sonya Kilkenny to designate parts of the city’s west hit by flooding last year as subject to inundation.
The report said buyback schemes for flood-prone properties may be needed in some areas.
“This may result in significant disruption to the social fabric of an area and would have to be done with great sensitivity and care,” it said.
The report found it was unclear whether the flood wall built around Flemington racecourse had exacerbated flooding for residents upstream.
“The degree to which the flood wall contributed to the duration and extent of the flood event cannot be assessed directly, as there is no modelling of the event that includes the flood wall,” said the report from the inquiry, led by former federal and Victorian Supreme Court judge Tony Pagone.
It also found that the flooding risk at Rivervue retirement village in Avondale Heights, where 47 properties were inundated, could worsen “as a result of climate change and with further development upstream”.
Pagone was appointed to the role after the first chair of the inquiry, Nick Wimbush, quit after The Age in February revealed his previous role in supporting planning changes that led to the retirement village building homes in areas that flooded.
Former premier Daniel Andrews ordered Melbourne Water to conduct the review.
That inquiry was criticised from the outset because of a perceived lack of independence and because of the limited scope of its terms of reference, with matters such as emergency responses, flood recovery and urban planning excluded.
A parliamentary inquiry was also later established after extensive reporting by The Age, and the Coalition, Greens and crossbenchers teamed up to launch a wider-ranging flood review.
Last October’s flood hit more than 600 homes and businesses across Maribyrnong, Avondale Heights, Kensington and Ascot Vale. It was the third-worst flood on record for the Maribyrnong River – with only floods in 1974 and 1906 hitting the area harder.
The report recommended that Melbourne Water undertake more regular reviews of flood models, considering the best estimates of climate change.
Melbourne Water general manager Nerina Di Lorenzo said the water authority would work to implement all the report’s recommendations.
She said it would take a year to model the impact of the Flemington racecourse flood wall on the wider deluge because it was such a complex task.
Di Lorenzo said long-term flood mitigation measures could “mean a number of things”, including planning controls, rather than building a new dam upstream on the river or levees along the banks.
The Flemington racecourse flood wall.Credit: Darrian Traynor
“We can’t discount physical infrastructure, but we have also got to know that they have to be very carefully assessed before you can go down that path,” she said.
Di Lorenzo said that since last October’s flood Melbourne Water had begun providing new flood modelling for every river catchment in Melbourne by the end of 2026. “That includes climate change impacts projected to the year 2100.”
She said there were outstanding issues to resolve at Rivervue, and this work remained a priority for Melbourne Water, including a flood management plan for the retirement village that was underway.
Maribyrnong resident Lee Lanzafame, whose house was inundated in last year’s floods, said the report failed to convey the extent of flood damage to homes and businesses.
Lanzafame said there had been no discernible improvements to warning systems and residents grew anxious when their phones pinged with general flood warnings even if they did not apply to the Maribyrnong River.
Melbourne Water’s flood alert system failed to warn residents during last October’s disaster – leaving residents to flee as water rushed into their properties.
The first time many residents in Maribyrnong learnt they should evacuate was via text messages sent by the State Emergency Service between 4am and 6am. The river ultimately peaked at 4.2 metres – 1.8 metres higher than Melbourne Water had predicted the night before.
“Nothing has changed in 12 months to improve this,” Lanzafame said. “Emotionally, we’re not great.”
Lee and Selin Lanzafame in January holding up two images of their flooded home, taken 48 years apart.Credit: Jason South
Lanzafame’s family is living on the second floor of his Maribyrnong home while they try to decide whether it is worth repairing the ground level that has a lounge room, study and bathroom.
Lanzafame said he was waiting for the conclusion of a parliamentary inquiry into the floods to see whether it recommended greater protection for residents. “If mitigation is one of the recommendations, we’ll stay,” he said. “If not, we’ll leave.”
Opposition water spokesman Tim McCurdy said that Melbourne Water had shown complete disregard for residents along the Maribyrnong River. “It refuses to accept any responsibility,” he said, arguing the state government “continues the ‘nothing to see here approach’ while Maribyrnong residents seek genuine answers”.
Water Minister Harriet Shing’s spokeswoman said the government would “work with Melbourne Water to address the findings of the report and identify areas to improve flood mitigation, communication and response efforts”.
Last October’s Maribyrnong River flood.Credit: Luis Ascui
Chair of Maribyrnong Council’s Community Recovery Committee, Madeleine Serle, on Friday attacked the report as largely pointless. “This was an egregious waste of time,” she said.
Hydrologist Geoff Crapper worked at Melbourne Water and its predecessor, the Melbourne Metropolitan Board of Works, for three decades until 2003 and helped implement the river’s first warning system after floods in 1974.
He said it was “wonderful” that Pagone’s report recommended Melbourne Water investigate “flood mitigation options for the Maribyrnong”. Crapper said Melbourne Water must revisit a 1980s report by the state government recommending a flood-retarding basin be built on the Maribyrnong River at Arundel, near Keilor.
The report noted that mitigation measures like levees and flood walls could be “costly and can also result in a number of negative side effects, such as negative environmental impact and the transferring of flood risk from one location to another”.
Crapper was among those who opposed the construction of the Flemington racecourse flood wall when it was proposed in the early 2000s, because of the risk it would exacerbate flooding. On Friday, he warned that Melbourne Water – which allowed the wall to be built – could not now fairly review its impact.
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