Libs and Greens out, teals in: Election results send shockwaves across state

While the world’s gaze is fixed on the consequences of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, closer to home Victorian MPs are reeling from the results of local council elections and the implications for their own campaigns.

On Thursday afternoon, the electoral commission started to declare winners in 78 municipalities across the state.

Rob Baillieu, son of former Victorian Liberal premier Ted Baillieu.Credit: Simon Schluter

While most ratepayers are simply keen to know if their rates are going up and bins will be collected each week, for political parties, a presence on local councils can be the key to success at a state and federal level.

Many prominent MPs launched their political careers in local council chambers.

Federally, Clare O’Neil and Julian Hill are both Labor MPs who were former councillors.

At the state level, so are Steve Dimopoulos, Nick Staikos, Eden Foster, Ros Spence, Natalie Suleyman, Paul Mercurio and Luba Grigorovitch, just to name a few.

Former Victorians Greens leaders Samantha Ratnam and Greg Barber also got their starts on councils.

Sophie Torney was successful in gaining a council foothold should she seek to again challenge the Liberals for the state electorate of Kew. Credit: Eamon Gallagher

And while the Liberals have never been as successful at stacking out local government, Tim Smith, Julian McGauran, Bev McArthur, David Hodgett, Don Chipp and Clem Newton-Brown are just some of the former and current MPs who served on councils.

While some of these MPs might not be your cup of tea, selecting candidates from councils is often seen as a safe choice for political parties as they usually come with some experience in chairing meetings, campaigning and, importantly, knowing how to navigate a bureaucracy.

But local councils provide more than just a training ground for wannabe MPs. For state and federal MPs, a good relationship with local councils can be vital for their success.

Councillors have far more contact with their local communities – and public funded venues – than their state and federal counterparts and through these associations they can be a wealth of information.

It can also give parties vital campaigning infrastructure in a community come election time.

For these reasons, some within the Liberal Party have been dumbfounded by their poor showing in crucial pockets of Victoria. A little extra Liberal presence come election day would have been priceless.

Take the leafy municipality of Boroondara in the city’s inner east, which includes suburbs like Camberwell, Kew and Hawthorn. For decades, Liberal-aligned councillors have been a dominant force in local government.

Now, residents appear to have rejected Liberals in favour of so-called teal independents, potentially making life a little harder for local state MPs John Pesutto and Jess Wilson.

At the last state election, Pesutto and Wilson just snuck across the line in the face of teal threats, including from Sophie Torney who battled Wilson for the seat of Kew.

Torney has now been elected to the Studley ward – taking in parts of Kew – giving her two years to permeate the electorate, build her brand and give the wider teal movement a foothold in the area should she wish to stand again.

Meanwhile, Rob Baillieu, the volunteer manager for Kooyong independent Monique Ryan, will join Torney on council, which has also raised eyebrows among Liberals who fear the result could further damage their hopes of taking back the federal seat next year.

As one local Liberal member said: “We are just not serious people allowing them to get a foot in the door.”

Council results suggest the Greens’ numbers have also been decimated across the state, worrying many long-time members who have previously raised concerns about the direction and instability within the Victorian branch.

At the 2020 council elections, 36 Greens representatives were elected to local government. As counting wrapped up and candidates were declared this week, Greens insiders feared that number could halve.

Councils that once had a heavy Green presence including Melbourne, Yarra and Darebin have seen their numbers drop, which, one Greens members said, “does not bode well for state and federal elections”.

In Stonnington, where four Greens-aligned candidates were running, not one seems likely to make the cut. Couple that with the party losing its local state MP last week when Sam Hibbins resigned after admitting to a relationship with a staff member, and it spells trouble for the Greens in Melbourne’s inner south.

By contrast, Labor has managed to hold on in key areas, though insiders admit there are still red flags the party can’t ignore.

Melbourne’s outer fringe has long been safe Labor territory, but there are mounting concerns among government strategists about the party’s ability to hold these areas in the future.

In Melton, Andrew Deeming, the husband of ousted Victorian Liberal Moira Deeming, trounced Labor’s candidate Ujjala Camilleri.

On the traditionally Labor-heavy Dandenong council the ALP’s numbers are also forecast to drop. Veteran ALP councillor Angela Long has already lost. Labor’s numbers on Kingston council could also fall.

Council elections aren’t the perfect litmus test, but with a federal and state election due in the next two years, they should be a warning to political parties about dangers ahead.

Annika Smethurst is state political editor.

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