Gladys Berejiklian risks an election loss as the worsening internal chaos in the federal Liberal Party threatens to derail the Coalition's re-election hopes in NSW.
Exclusive polling reveals the Coalition trails Labor 49 to 51 on a two-party preferred basis as the fall-out from the bloody coup that deposed Malcolm Turnbull continues to impact NSW.
Polling shows Gladys Berejiklian could lose the state election if it were held this weekend. Credit: James Alcock
It also comes just a week after the Victorian Liberals suffered a spectacular loss in a state election.
The Herald polling puts new Opposition leader Michael Daley well ahead as preferred premier, with more than 54 per cent of voters saying Mr Daley would make a better premier than Ms Berejiklian.
The UComms/ReachTel state-wide poll of 1557 voters taken on Thursday night reveals that 50 per cent of people say the ongoing woes of the Morrison government would impact their vote.
Just over 36 per cent of people said federal politics would not influence them and 13 per cent were undecided, the polling reveals.
The poll also shows that despite Mr Daley only being in the top job for three weeks, 57 per cent of people knew he was the Opposition leader.
Labor strategists had expected the party to take a hit in the polls after the dramatic downfall of former leader Luke Foley, who quit last month amid sexual harassment allegations.
But Labor's primary vote has surged to 34.1 per cent, up from 31.5 per cent when the Herald polled in September. The Coalition's primary vote is 36.5 per cent, down from 41.9 per cent in March.
In the September poll, the Coalition and Labor were neck and neck on the two-party preferred.
The Greens are at 9.6 per cent and One Nation, which will be led in NSW by the former federal Labor leader Mark Latham, is on 7.5 per cent, up from 4.2 per cent in September.
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are on 3.3 per cent and independents 5.8 per cent.
The Nationals, which hold four of the Coalition's six most marginal seats, fear that the minor parties such as One Nation or conservative independents could be their biggest threat.
"It will really only be Nats versus Labor in Tweed and Monaro but it will be independents or the minor parties that will cause us trouble elsewhere," a senior National source said.
Michael Daley has only been in the top job for three weeks, 57% of those surveyed knew he was the Labor leader. Credit: AAP
A senior Liberal strategist said the Coalition's primary vote would need to be at least 36 per cent to win and anything below that figure would almost certainly land them in minority government.
The government only holds a six-seat majority after its humiliating loss in the Wagga Wagga byelection in September. The seat was won by an independent, Joe McGirr.
"Anything less than 36 that could put us in minority government but I think we could win on 36. It would be bloody but I think we would get there," the source said.
Senior Liberals have conceded that the party’s brand is damaged federally, but believe they can differentiate themselves from the Morrison government.
One senior Liberal MP said the Coalition's biggest problem was that it had not developed a clear message to convince voters to return them for a historic third term.
"I think that people need to know what we stand for and clearly we are not communicating that message well at all," the MP said.
One long-time Liberal Party observer said the Coalition would be foolish to only point the finger at their federal colleagues.
"The preferred premier result demonstrates this is not all about the Federal Coalition. It would be wrong of them to solely blame the Feds and not look at themselves," the source said.
A senior government source said the NSW election would come down to a seat by seat battle but optional preferential voting made it difficult to predict outcomes.
"There is a lot of variance in seats and with optional preferential voting in NSW you see high Labor or high Liberal votes in strong Labor or Liberal seats," the source said.
"While state-wide figures give a good indication, they are not representative of how each seat would play out."