A year ago it was Minns’ mini-city, but was he backing the wrong horse?

NSW Labor (and plenty of trainspotters) celebrated some highs in 2024, largely thanks to the government having the good fortune of being able to cut the ribbon on projects built or started by their Coalition predecessors. The new metro lifted Sydney’s mood and the government’s stocks, as we finally felt like a grown-up city. Then NSW Labor finished off the year with the less glamorous – but still important – unveiling of the long-delayed intercity trains.

Those trains had been collecting dust in stabling yards for four years, but as of Tuesday, they are finally running between Central Station and Newcastle. The trip connecting the state’s biggest cities is no faster, but at least it will be slightly more comfortable. There is air-conditioning and charging ports for phones. Hardly groundbreaking, but it didn’t stop one train enthusiast from describing the fleet’s arrival as akin to finding the love of your life. (I plan to catch the train on the weekend and will report back on whether it tops meeting my husband).

Home and hosed? Not quite. Premier Chris Minns and Transport Minister Jo Haylen announce the proposed development at Rosehill racecourse almost a year ago to the day.Credit: Dion Georgopoulos

Of course, 2024 has had its lows as well for the government. Battles with unions over pay rises have been a big distraction. And while 65 per cent of public-sector workers have now received pay bumps, the government is still warring with train drivers and nurses. Those battles remain ugly.

As the Minns government fast approaches the halfway mark of its first term, what will 2025 and beyond look like? Disappointments and missed milestones are likely, starting with the under-threat Rosehill mini-city proposal, which looks more and more shaky as time goes on.

The plan to redevelop Rosehill racecourse, announced a year ago this week, was, in the words of Premier Chris Minns, a “once-in-a-generation opportunity”. At its core were plans for the Australian Turf Club to sell its 60-hectare site in western Sydney to developers to make way for 25,000 new homes. It would also provide the necessary impetus for the government to build another station for the under-construction Metro West. No mini-city, no extra station.

The ATC reckons it could get $5 billion for the site and the government had a part-solution to the housing crisis it must fix. But there is a major sticking point. It looks increasingly like a majority of ATC members won’t back the sale when it goes to a vote in April. At last week’s annual general meeting, two new board members were elected or, in the case of former ATC deputy chair Tim Hale, re-elected. Hale has been vocal about his opposition to the Rosehill sale, and the other new board addition, lawyer Annette English, had the backing of the lobby group Save Rosehill.

A majority of the board is now against offloading Rosehill, and high-profile racing figures – including champion trainers Gai Waterhouse and Chris Waller – have loudly opposed the sale.

There are more complications. The parliamentary inquiry into the proposed development is due to report on Friday, with likely criticisms of the government’s handling of the plan. The inquiry probed the deal and how the idea for it was originally hatched during a meeting between Minns and his long-time friend Steve McMahon, an official at the ATC. They served together on Hurstville Council, and McMahon ran unsuccessfully for Labor in the federal seat of Barton. It was characterised simply as a “meet and greet” in the premier’s diary, locked in just a couple of days after McMahon called Minns’ office and requested it.

All of this will matter little to voters if the ultimate result is that ATC members kibosh the plans and the Rosehill proposal dies. Minns has walked back the certainty around it in recent months, insisting it will only happen if the ATC members agree. Perhaps Minns was too hasty in making such a bold announcement in the hope that a positive reaction would be enough to drag dubious ATC members over the line. Time will tell.

The government will push on with its housing reforms in 2025, but it is already a long way from meeting its target under the National Housing Accord to build 75,000 homes a year for five years. The latest Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure forecasts estimate only 151,670 homes will be built in Greater Sydney by July 2029.

With tough economic times ahead, unresolved union deals and an impenetrable housing crisis, NSW Labor will start 2025 on the back foot. But it does have one more ribbon to cut when the Sydenham-to-Bankstown line becomes part of the metro sometime next year. It will be hoping that commuters fall in love with that shiny new project, too, as it wades through what is likely to be its hardest year so far in government.

Alexandra Smith is state political editor.

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