What fuelled Dutton’s rise is now derailing his bid to be PM

How did the Coalition enter this campaign so poorly prepared? The second-most remarkable thing about this election is how far in advance we all knew what Labor had planned. We knew the timing – give or take a month – because Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he wanted to serve a full term. We knew Labor’s slogan because it was revealed last year. Labor telegraphed that its major announcements would be completed well before the campaign – and, except for some small tax cuts, they were.

Most importantly, Labor’s argument for itself has barely shifted in three years. We had a pretty good sense even from Albanese’s time as opposition leader, when he declared voters had “conflict fatigue”. Albanese set the tone in his first year: deliberate and unostentatious, avoiding fights, arguably unambitious. Workmanlike.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton at their final debate.Credit: AAP

The single most remarkable thing about this election, then, is how little the Coalition’s campaign seems to have been framed against a Labor campaign we knew was coming. Successful campaigns are built around contrasts. The best possible campaign will contrast your most obvious strengths with your opponent’s most obvious weaknesses. John Howard’s accusation that Kim Beazley lacked “ticker” – to contrast with his own stubborn courage – was perfect.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s campaign has been the opposite of this. Instead of highlighting Labor’s flaws, it feels as though the Coalition has done all it can to underline Albanese’s modest strengths.

Think of it this way. Imagine your opponent has a slow, steady, gradualist approach, one that hasn’t overly impressed. How to make it seem like an appealing option? You’d pepper your campaign with confusion and backflips. Suddenly, tedious predictability seems quite good.

Or what if your opponent’s modest pitch was built around basic competence – how could you make that sing? You’d show voters what it looks like when a leader can’t nail down numbers or hold a line.

And what if your opponent’s campaign offering was moderate in size, something not remotely bold but utterly plausible. How to make that seem like a good offer? Perhaps you’d propose something that tests the bounds of plausibility, like, say, building functioning nuclear plants in 12 years.

In other words, do exactly what Dutton has done.

Of course, Dutton has also been unlucky. Donald Trump intervened. But the possibility that Trump would help Albanese was always there – I wrote about it last November. And inflation was always going to level off.

If Dutton loses badly – and don’t forget, victory is still possible – an almighty blame game will begin. His critics should not conveniently forget the structural barriers to success. It was always going to be tough to unseat a first-term government. The teals made it harder still. That said, the list of campaign mistakes is truly impressive. Indonesia, work from home, fringe benefits tax, referendums, several public service shifts, the reluctance to discuss nuclear, the lack of detail in defence policy, Kirribilli. I am including only those in which Dutton was directly involved.

Dutton’s demeanour projects a sense of discipline.Credit: James Brickwood

Voters may be surprised by all this carelessness. Dutton’s demeanour, combined with the bearing of the policeman he once was, projects a sense of discipline. And yet, if you examine the shape of Dutton’s career, it has arguably always been leading here.

In his Quarterly Essay on Dutton, Bad Cop, writer Lech Blaine records Dutton’s 2019 attack on his opponent in the seat of Dickson, Ali France. Dutton said she was using her disability as an excuse not to live in her electorate – before apologising in a tweet. “It was trademark Dutton. Generate outrage, then kind of say sorry, without outlining what he was sorry about.”

Ignore the question of sincerity. The habit to note is Dutton’s willingness to say something drastic, hitting the general theme he wants to hit, in the belief he can sort out any issues afterwards. We’ve seen this repeatedly in recent weeks. Ever-confident of his theme (public service, the prime minister’s weakness on national security), he goes a little further than he should (women job-sharing, or verballing the Indonesian president), believing problems can be fixed later – with more detail, or a backflip, or an apology. Done occasionally, this can work. But it has happened again and again, in the full glare of a campaign.

This looseness in Dutton’s approach has often been missed. Sometimes that is because when these problems crop up, most attention understandably goes to his exploitation of the politics of race. It is well known that Dutton criticised Malcolm Fraser for letting in Lebanese refugees. What is usually overlooked is that conservative commentator Andrew Bolt had brought the subject up, more or less giving Dutton the words that he then repeated back. The words themselves were a problem. But the fact Dutton was willing to have those words put in his mouth was a problem, too.

This tells us something about Dutton – but it also tells us something about the Coalition of recent years. As Blaine tells me, Dutton’s habits, now doing him damage, are the same habits that allowed him to rise in his party. It was this very looseness, Blaine says – Dutton’s willingness to make incendiary comments – that nabbed him prime conservative media spots; taking those spots then reinforced the habit. His comments may be less incendiary now, but the looseness remains. If Dutton fails on Saturday, it will be a failure that has much to say about the party he leads, what it values, who it promotes and why.

But again, Dutton may do better than now expected. If so, given his awful campaign, Labor will be the party reassessing its approach, not just to campaigning but to governing. And it should be said that even if Dutton fails, it is still possible that his most significant strategic decision – to go after outer-suburban seats rather than pursue the teal seats – turns out to be the Coalition’s best long-term hope.

Saturday may show signs it could work in future, even if it doesn’t work this time. If Dutton wants to improve his chances of still being leader when it does, he should make sure the final week of his campaign is very, very different from the four that preceded it.

Sean Kelly is an author and a regular columnist. He is a former adviser to Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd.