Watch the exits: The ‘real issue’ missing in the migration debate

Political leaders are being urged to tackle the growing problem of more than 80,000 temporary visitors who will not leave Australia amid a heightened debate about migration after Opposition Leader Peter Dutton dumped a target to cut the intake.

One of Australia’s leading population experts, Professor Peter McDonald of the University of Melbourne, warned that promises to cut net migration could not be delivered without a sharper focus on the backlog in departures.

A leading population expert said preliminary ABS numbers had underestimated arrivals and overestimated departures since the pandemic.Credit: Scott McNaughton

The warning comes as official figures due on Thursday are likely to reveal that net overseas migration exceeded the government’s most recent forecast of 395,000 for the year to June, continuing a series of missed targets since borders were opened after the pandemic.

McDonald said part of the challenge was that “bogus asylum seekers” were staying in Australia after their claims had been rejected by federal officials and the courts.

Dutton vowed in May to cut net migration to 160,000 a year if elected, but retreated from that pledge in an interview on Sunday, while business leaders warned that stricter controls would stop the arrival of skilled foreign workers and hurt the economy.

The federal government has promised to reduce net migration by slowing arrivals and encouraging departures, but has blamed the Coalition for undermining this policy by voting against caps on overseas student numbers.

McDonald said Thursday’s Australian Bureau of Statistics update should be treated with caution because it could be wrongly interpreted by politicians and the media as the “number of migrants entering Australia” when the figure also reflected departures.

Under the ABS approach, a migrant arrival is someone who arrives in Australia and then spends 12 out of the next 16 months in the country. McDonald said the preliminary numbers had underestimated arrivals and overestimated departures since the pandemic.

“We must interpret what is happening in terms of the numbers of arrivals and departures, not fictitious ‘net migrants’,” he said in a paper to be published at the Australian National University Migration Hub and based on a presentation he made to Department of Home Affairs officials last month.

“From this perspective, recent high levels of NOM [net overseas migration] are due substantially to the low number of departures, not the number of arrivals. Departure levels remain the same as they were when the border was closed.”

McDonald said politicians and others would call for a reduction in arrivals without having any strategy for departures, which he named as the “real issue” to be tackled.

“This is a point on which politicians of both sides must be challenged,” he said.

“There are some 80,000 to 100,000 persons presently in Australia whose last resort to stay has elapsed.

“Many are from the cohort of bogus asylum seekers who entered during the term of the previous government.”

People can apply for asylum after running out of other options to stay in Australia, with some remaining in the country after their asylum applications have been rejected. This masthead reported last month that the number of people in migration “limbo” was growing by about 1000 per month.

Dutton said in his budget reply speech in May that a Coalition government would cut permanent migration to 140,000, down from the budget forecast of 185,000.

Days after that speech, he told radio station 2GB that he would reduce net overseas migration to 160,000 a year – 100,000 places lower than the budget forecast for this financial year.

On Sunday, he declined to commit to the net migration target when asked several times on Sky News if he stood by his earlier pledge.

Dutton emphasised his plan for permanent migration on Sky News on Monday night.

“We’ve said that we would cut by about 25 per cent the permanent intake,” he said. “That would reduce it down to 140,000 in year one, and again in year two it ramps up to 150, and then 160,000 in year four.”

The permanent migration intake covers those who are given permanent residency each year. It is separate from the net overseas migration measure of those who arrive and depart over a period of time. Permanent migration was 195,000 last year, and employers fear the Coalition target would mean turning away skilled workers.

McDonald said targeting the net migration figure without a plan for departures or the permanent intake would lead to bad policy.

“To summarise, prioritise permanent migration and its components,” he said.

“Don’t allow short-term political considerations to ruin good permanent migration policy.

“Don’t destroy valuable temporary visa programs by curtailing arrivals while not recognising that Australia has a significant problem with departures of temporary residents.”

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