Voters back migration cuts as Dutton retreats on target

The Coalition is standing by its stated goal of reducing permanent migration after scrapping a separate pledge to cut the number of net arrivals to 160,000 a year as an exclusive survey shows strong majority support for a lower intake.

The revised policy is to set a “realistic” target to ensure the intake is lower than the Labor alternative, but opposition immigration spokesman Dan Tehan is yet to name the new goal for net migration.

Peter Dutton said in May that a Coalition government would cut permanent migration to 140,000, down from the budget forecast of 185,000.Credit: Aresna Villanueva

Labor seized on the retreat to accuse Opposition Leader Peter Dutton of dumping a promise he made in May, while a former migration official said the Coalition’s tough talk was unworkable without a damaging cut to the skilled workforce.

The new survey, conducted for this masthead by research company Resolve Strategic, found that 64 per cent of voters backed a reduction in the number of immigrants to Australia. Only 16 per cent were against the idea and the rest were unsure.

The two major parties have made competing pledges to slow arrivals following a surge when Australia opened its borders after the worst of the pandemic, but official figures to be released this week are likely to show the intake remains high.

Dutton said in his budget reply speech in May that a Coalition government would cut permanent migration to 140,000, down from the budget forecast of 185,000.

Days after that speech, he told radio station 2GB that he would reduce net overseas migration to 160,000 a year – 100,000 places lower than the budget forecast.

The permanent migration intake covers those who are given permanent residency each year, while net overseas migration measures the total number of arrivals who increase the population, including students and skilled workers who stay for a set time.

On Sunday, however, Dutton declined to commit to the net migration target when asked several times on Sky News if he stood by his earlier pledge.

Tehan said on Monday a Coalition government would cut permanent migration from 185,000 a year to 140,000, but did not name a new goal for the net intake.

Industry groups including the Business Council of Australia and the Australian Industry Group had warned against the Coalition plan out of concern it would restrict the flow of skilled foreign workers when industries including construction and tourism are short of staff.

Former immigration department deputy secretary Abul Rizvi said Dutton had not explained how he would reach his permanent or net targets without turning away students, workers and people seeking to reunite with migrant families in Australia.

“The arithmetic does not work,” Rizvi said of the opposition leader’s promises.

“He has plucked the numbers out of thin air without thinking about how he would do it.”

Net overseas migration was 528,000 in the year to June 2023 and included 265,000 overseas students, 71,000 working holidaymakers, 12,740 permanent humanitarian places, 25,000 New Zealanders, 44,000 temporary skilled workers and 30,000 permanent skilled workers.

While the government has sought to lower the foreign student intake by placing caps on universities, Dutton chose to vote against the draft law last month without revealing an alternative measure to reduce the numbers.

Tehan said on Monday a Coalition government would reduce international student numbers at major city universities but did not elaborate.

Rizvi said Dutton could only achieve a deep cut to the intake by hurting employers who wanted more workers.

“He would have to buy some fights with the farmers, the tourism industry and the BCA to get net migration down to 160,000,” he said.

“He would also have to get unemployment up to about 6 per cent – that reduces arrivals and increases departures because a lot of people would not get a job.”

Australian Industry Group chief Innes Willox said employers needed more staff to support their growth and that the demand for skilled foreign workers should be treated separately from the debate about overseas students.

“We may have an unemployment rate of 4.1 per cent, but there are still major skills shortages, particularly in technicians and trades,” he said.

The government forecast net migration would fall to 395,000 in the year to June 2024.

Rizvi said the government would miss the forecast when official figures were released later this week, estimating the outcome would be a net intake of about 460,000 people, plus or minus 20,000.

The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1604 eligible voters from Wednesday to Sunday, generating results with a margin of error of 2.4 per cent.

A slight majority, 51 per cent, backed the idea of reducing the number of foreign students, but 20 per cent were opposed and 29 per cent were undecided.

The survey found strong support for one of the key features of a law passed in November with Coalition support to toughen the approach to immigration detainees, with 58 per cent of respondents backing travel bans on countries that refuse to take back their citizens. This is a key issue for Iran, for instance, which refuses to accept people who seek asylum in Australia but are rejected.

Forty-four per cent of voters supported sending immigration detainees to a third country rather than letting them stay in Australia, a new federal law that responds to High Court decisions that have forced the release of hundreds of detainees.

Voters were divided on this issue, however, with 23 per cent against the idea of sending detainees to a third country, while 33 per cent were unsure.

While the government has not named the countries it would ask to accept immigration detainees, refugee advocates have named Nauru as one of the logical partner countries. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met Nauruan President David Adeang in Canberra on Monday.

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