The Voice failed the ‘man from the moon test’. Its architects must come back to earth

As own goals go, they don’t get any more spectacular or unnecessary than the Voice referendum. From the moment the die was cast at the 2022 Garma Festival, hot on the heels of the federal election, the Yes campaign was fuelled and defined by unbridled naïveté and wishful thinking. This was mixed with political ambition and egos, led by a selfish alliance of non-Indigenous and Indigenous leaders, elected and unelected.

One of the most notable hallmarks of this selfish alliance was the total refusal to admit defeat even when there was time to stage a tactical retreat. There was time to respectably cancel this unfolding train wreck. But the baby and the bathwater were both dispensable. Suddenly, the immediate challenge was about saving political face rather than closing the gap.

Anthony Albanese claims election victory in 2022. Twelve months later his referendum has failed. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

When Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced in Adelaide on August 30 that October 14 would be referendum day, he should instead have announced the cancellation of the referendum. But like crazed generals fighting an unwinnable war, there was too much invested in cancelling the referendum. That’s selfish.

As the fall-out is assessed, the architects of this ill-conceived referendum should not be hailed as well-intentioned reformers who were ahead of their time. We require nothing less than the unvarnished version of what went wrong. The onus is on Anthony Albanese to be the author of the truth rather than the subject of it.

The government got it hopelessly wrong, ignoring the lessons of history and failing to understand Indigenous and non-Indigenous contemporary Australia. Celebrity money and endorsement created its own hubris, compounding the notion of the Yes campaign being a creation of the political elites.

My old boss Nick Greiner, as NSW premier decades ago, would encourage his ministers to apply the man from the moon test. That was Nick’s way of encouraging us to be objective and rigorous to help the quality of government decision-making. The man from the moon, as the ultimate outsider, had no baggage, prejudices or network. His gift to any situation was flawless objectivity.

So, what would the man from the moon say about the Voice referendum, from conception to death?

He would say:

1. Never ignore 122 years of referendum history;
2. Never have a referendum without bipartisan support;
3. Never have a referendum without the clear support of those most affected;
4. Never believe that political victory translates into referendum victory;
5. Never be afraid to use the escape hatch in the face of certain defeat;
6. Beware the power of celebrity – especially corporate celebrity.

The Yes campaign ignored or failed to embrace all these imperatives.

For months, Indigenous Australians were verballed and patronised with the outrageous claim that 80 percent of First Nations people were on board with the Voice.

Former NSW premier Nick Greiner peruses the menu, possibly looking for mooncake. Credit: AFR

Smart political insiders often say there is no point getting policy right if the politics is wrong and there is no point getting the politics right if the policy is wrong. Those planets need to align – or at least align enough.

In the case of the Voice referendum, the good policy – constitutional recognition – was poisoned by the Voice. That meant the politics of the six-week campaign and the lead up to it were disastrously and irredeemably diverted. The train wreck continued.

George Brandis, former attorney-general and high commissioner to the UK, has pointed out the important healing job the PM now has ahead of him. But effective healing will only happen with effective ownership of what went wrong. Nelson Mandela introduced us to the maxim of “truth and reconciliation”. Putting the truth first is essential in that process.

There are many broken pieces, dreams, ambitions and hearts from the resounding 60/40 defeat of the Voice referendum. The result is a disaster. But political life provides a constant reminder of how short memories are. One day’s disaster can be a dim memory within days or weeks.

What will not be forgotten by Australian governments for decades to come will be that, in 2023, the referendum spectacularly failed. The reasons will become the reference point for decision-making about future referendums for generations. The suggestion that this failed referendum could poison the well for other constitutional reforms is not far-fetched.

Australians too young to vote in this referendum may not see a bold move like the Voice referendum in their lifetimes. Decades after the memory of the Voice has faded, there will be a vivid and enduring memory that this reckless roll of the dice failed. That memory will be as vivid and enduring as the memory of the celebrated success of the 1967 referendum affecting Indigenous Australians.

As for the “what do we do now” question? A seamless refocusing on closing the gap seems to be the most constructive and achievable option on offer, at the same time the architects of the Voice must get their act together to explain how and why the referendum went to custard.

The man from the moon will be keen to hear their explanation.

Michael Yabsley was a minister in the Greiner government and a federal treasurer of the Liberal Party. He is the author of Dark Money – A plan to reform political fundraising and election funding in Australia.