The perfect storm Fatima Payman’s new party needs to win seats

The chances of Fatima Payman’s new party succeeding at the next election are slim according to one of Australia’s leading psephologists, who says the first-term senator would need many factors to swing her way to secure even one seat.

Polling expert Kevin Bonham said while it is not unusual for minor parties to gain 1 or 2 per cent of the vote, Payman’s candidates would need to convince at least one in every 25 voters of a given state to gain a seat in the Senate.

Independent senator Fatima Payman said her new party would provide an alternative to Australians who were disillusioned about the “politicking” of the major parties.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

“You need a lot to go your way to even get one seat,” Bonham said. “For a half-senate election, [a candidate with] less than 3 or 4 per cent of the vote is not at all likely to win. A minor party that’s coming out of nowhere could be needing 7 per cent or more.”

Gone are the days when candidates could be elected from a primary vote of half a per cent. “That’s been stopped,” Bonham said.

Payman, a former Labor senator turned independent, will this week formally announce the name of her party which she said would contest the Senate race in every state, as well as marginal lower house seats.

A change in voting rules after 2016 meant Payman’s recently appointed chief of staff, political strategist Glenn Druery, would not be able to lean on the preference-swapping deals he used to vault micro-parties into the Senate in 2013.

Payman’s party would need to take advantage of a “long-term pattern of decline in the major parties”, siphoning votes from both sides of the political spectrum.

For Payman, who resigned from the Labor Party in July after crossing the floor to support a Greens motion to recognise a Palestinian state, that would mean not only attracting the votes of disillusioned Labor voters but tapping into the Coalition vote, as the teals did in 2022.

This is especially the case, Bonham said, because polling was suggesting a modest swing from Labor to the Coalition.

Winning over Greens votes would also be a difficult task, despite many voters likely linking Payman to the Greens for her position on Palestine. “The Greens vote seems pretty resilient against minor parties,” Bonham said.

Payman previously told this masthead that she had not sought funding from Climate 200: the major financial backer of the teals, even though she hoped the party would appeal to teal voters.

But Bonham said even that would not be a guarantee of success. “Those independent campaigns by the teals relied on big spending in specific electorates,” he said.

While the name of the party remains a secret, and redacted in a copy of the party’s constitution seen by this masthead, Bonham said a “catchy name” would be crucial.

Payman said her party would provide an alternative to Australians who were disillusioned about the “politicking” of the major parties on issues including the housing crisis.

“The major parties have been twiddling their thumbs and have had it too easy for too long,” she said. “I’ve already been contacted by so many disenfranchised Labor members, and even former candidates, who have expressed their interest to join the party that’s about to be announced,” she said.

Payman’s party would need to create “a big splash”, according to Bonham, and said her stated aim of securing a seat in every state was “very optimistic”.

But Payman, who looks up to former Labor giants including Gough Whitlam, Bob Hawke and Paul Keating, said she was well aware it wouldn’t be an easy task.

“I think, you know, it’s time,” she said. “I’m here to do what’s right, not what’s easy. Once the name of this party is announced, everyone will understand. You’ll know why there’s a need for this party to exist.”

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