The narratives cloaking ‘weak’ Albanese and ‘nasty’ Dutton are setting like cement

This time next year, Australia will more than likely be knee-deep in a federal election campaign. If things continue as they are, the major parties will go backwards.

Irresistible forces are preparing to strike moveable objects.

The budget presents an opportunity for Labor and the Coalition to regroup.Credit: Dionne Gain

The teals are targeting more Coalition seats while the Greens aim to slice further into Labor territory in Wills and Richmond, and against the Liberals in seats like Sturt.

Take the NSW seat of Bradfield, once the bluest of blue-ribbon Liberal seats. In 2022, Paul Fletcher suffered a 15.28 per cent drop in his primary vote after a challenge from unknown independent Nicolette Boele. Fletcher held on with a two-party preferred vote a smidgen over 54 per cent.

Back then, the community independents movement didn’t think Boele stood a chance, and so failed to pour resources into the seat. They are not making that mistake again, assuming Bradfield still exists after the NSW electoral redistribution.

Boele has set herself up as the shadow member for Bradfield. In mid-March, a uComms poll for Climate 200, obtained by this columnist, shows Boele on 16.3 per cent while Fletcher’s primary vote was languishing around 36 per cent, almost 10 per cent below that of 2022. After preferences, and without the benefit of a full-on campaign, Boele wins with 53 per cent to Fletcher’s 47 per cent.

There are several regional seats vulnerable to the two-strike strategy where independent candidates made significant inroads in 2022 – Wannon, held by Liberal frontbencher and potential leadership aspirant Dan Tehan, Grey in South Australia, where sitting Liberal Rowan Ramsey is retiring, and Cowper and Nicholls, held by the Nationals.

Climate 200 founder Simon Holmes a Court thought the teals’ success in 2022 would force Liberals back to the centre. “How wrong I was,” he says now. “[Peter] Dutton is more unpopular with the voters he needs, especially women, than Morrison was at this point in the electoral cycle.”

Without dismissing the threat, Coalition MPs argue it’s different now: “We don’t have Morrison hanging around our neck, and people are struggling to feed themselves.” While conceding Dutton can be a polarising figure disliked in the cities, they say he travels well in regional Australia.

The narratives which have cloaked the major party leaders – that Albanese is weak and Dutton is nasty – are setting like cement. Too often Albanese’s good intentions are derailed by ill discipline or grouchiness, as happened at the women’s march in Canberra. He was right to attend and wrong to let heckling get under his skin. He needs to keep cranky Albo locked in the cupboard.

Dutton rations his appearances. He seldom surfaces at weekends. He was absent for days after the Bondi murders, nowhere in public during the women’s marches, then available early two days later, following the arrest of a released Kuwait-born detainee for a violent home invasion. Even if legitimate, his criticisms came across as highly selective and aggressive. Dutton’s comfort zone is ripping into the government.

The budget and Dutton’s reply to it presents another opportunity for Labor and the Coalition to regroup, to give people a clear sense of their agendas for the next year and the next term to address the many vexed problems the country faces.

How do they propose to repair the economy, strengthen national security, mitigate the impacts of global insecurity, ensure social cohesion, protect women from violence, care for the aged and fix the weather?

No pressure then on Jim Chalmers to frame a document which does more than assure families he feels their pain. The treasurer does a very good line in empathy, but voters pay on results. They want lower inflation, job security, a safe environment and renewed hope that life will get better.

A couple of interest rates cuts would help lighten the national mood before polling day. Labor might get lucky. Philip Lowe waited too long to increase rates, Michele Bullock might not want to wait too long to cut them.

Voters are pessimistic and with good reason. It was no accident Albanese referred to himself as an optimist when he was trying to put flesh on the skinny bones of his Made in Australia venture – a policy marketed as forward-looking which reeks of governments past.

Voters haven’t totally given up on him. Nor are they convinced Dutton has any answers. They are not angry over a particular broken promise – power bills or tax cuts – however they do remember Albanese promised life would be better under Labor. Plainly that hasn’t happened. And on too many fronts.

His brain snap at Sunday’s rally aside, Albanese has responded appropriately to the horrific murders of the past few weeks which demand a whole of government, whole of society approach.

The tragedy of it is that it took the deaths of so many women to prompt the emergency meeting of national cabinet. Women infuriated by the extent of the violence, the seeming lack of action to combat it, the never-ending recitation of platitudes can only hope that the suite of measures announced on Wednesday by Albanese work.

It also cannot end there. Yes, he is the prime minister, as he unwisely reminded everyone, which means he has to ensure the states do more and better.

Dutton also has an important role to play. If he wants to be taken seriously as the alternative prime minister, he needs to do a lot more than catastrophise.

Calling for a boycott of Woolworths for failing to stock Australia Day merchandise was beneath a national leader. Vandals attacked stores and shoppers abused staff.

Peter Dutton rations his appearances and was absent for days after the Bondi murders.Credit: Dion Georgopoulos

Dragging the Port Arthur tragedy into the Middle East conflict in a scripted speech was stupid and insensitive, especially in such violent times. Another grave mistake would be to pursue a rape victim over a compensation payment.

Sensible women and men have had more than enough. They also have plenty of alternatives if they think the current crop of national leaders is failing them.

Niki Savva is a regular columnist and author of The Road to Ruin, Plots and Prayers and Bulldozed, the trilogy chronicling nine years of Coalition rule. She is a member of the board of Old Parliament House.

The Opinion newsletter is a weekly wrap of views that will challenge, champion and inform your own. Sign up here.