The long climb: Disaster for Coalition in new opinion poll as Albanese builds on record win

The first post-federal election opinion poll has revealed the scale of the battle facing Opposition Leader Sussan Ley as she seeks to rebuild a shattered Liberal Party, with support for the Coalition falling to a near-record low.

But the new Resolve Political Monitor also shows that the dire situation confronting Ley has not translated into a surge of support for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, even as voters believe Labor is better able to deal with issues ranging from the economy to national security.

It’s good news for Anthony Albanese and not so good for Sussan Ley in the first post-election Resolve poll.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen and James Brickwood

The 48th parliament will sit on Tuesday for the first time since the May 3 election. Albanese holds a record 94 seats in the House of Representatives after trouncing the Coalition 55-45 on a two-party preferred basis.

At the election, the Coalition’s primary vote fell almost 4 percentage points to 31.8 per cent. The Resolve poll shows its primary support has fallen another 3 points to just 29 per cent – its lowest level since early 2023.

Most of that drop has flowed to One Nation, with Labor’s primary vote increasing marginally to 35 per cent. It secured 34.6 per cent at the May election.

On a two-party preferred level, based on preferences as nominated by the 2311 people who took part in the poll, Labor leads the Coalition 56-44.

Resolve Strategic director Jim Reed said the Coalition was now in “real strife”, arguing that while it needed a primary vote in the 40s to be competitive, it was struggling to get into the 30s.

However, he cautioned that Albanese was not enjoying the honeymoon he had following the 2022 election, when Labor’s primary vote regularly reached 42 per cent.

“This is more a renewing of the vows with a comfortable partner than the honeymoon we saw post-2022,” he said.

While the Coalition’s primary vote has slipped, the poll suggests that voters are open to giving Ley a chance.

At a net positive 11, Ley has the highest likeability rating of any MP or party. Albanese’s net likeability is positive 4 after slumping to minus 16 in February.

In terms of net performance, Ley is at minus 6 – a huge advance on the minus 24 that Peter Dutton registered in the final Resolve poll ahead of the election.

Thirty-eight per cent of respondents rated Ley’s performance so far as either good or very good, while 29 per cent rated it as poor or very poor. A third of those surveyed were undecided.

One of those surveyed noted of Ley that she “seems kind, I think her heart is in the right place”, while another said she was “not as polarising as Peter Dutton”.

But others pointed to the difficulty awaiting Ley to hold together the Coalition. “I think she’s probably too far left for most of her party – we’ll see if she lasts,” one respondent said.

Forty-five per cent of respondents rated Albanese’s performance as either good or very good while 42 per cent rated it as poor or very poor. His net performance rating of plus 8 is the highest in the past year. It had fallen to minus 26 in December.

There continue to be critics of Albanese’s overall performance among voters, some voters arguing he is “weak and wishy-washy”.

But others said the nation was “slowly making progress under his leadership”, and that while he was “not exceptional, he has a good team under him”.

Albanese holds a 15-point lead over Ley as preferred prime minister, a point down on his lead over Dutton in the last pre-election Resolve poll. Albanese’s overall support as preferred prime minister has slipped 7 points since April, to 40 per cent, while Ley is down 6 points on Dutton at 25 per cent.

Labor has a 10-point lead over the Coalition on who is best for the nation. It has an 18-point lead on which party has a united team, a 16-point lead on which party is communicating well and a 14-point lead on offering strong leadership.

Labor’s improved recent performance is being supported by voters’ outlook on the economy and their personal finances. The Resolve measure of personal and household outlook has reached its highest level since the 2022 election.

Reed said this was due to the improved economic situation that many Australians are noticing.

“People have seen rate cuts, some price stabilisation, a positive budget, a clear election win and few state elections on the horizon – all leading to the idea that things are more stable, and perhaps we’re turning a corner,” he said.

That is also being reflected in voters’ attitudes to the government’s handling of key issues.

As recently as February, voters believed the Coalition was doing better than the government on everything from the economy to crime and anti-social behaviour. Of 18 issues tracked by the Resolve Political Monitor, the government was rated more positively than the Coalition on just two – issues affecting Indigenous Australians and welfare.

In the post-election poll, the government is rated the better performer on every issue. It is 2 points stronger on the economy, 3 points on national security and 17 points in front on welfare.

One of Ley’s first tests is to lift female representation within the Liberal Party. She has said she is open to quotas while stressing this is up to the party’s state divisions.

Thirty-two per cent of those surveyed backed quotas – almost the same as the third opposed. A large proportion, 36 per cent, were unsure.

But in a sign of the potential political trouble facing Ley, just 27 per cent of Coalition supporters backed the use of quotas compared with 44 per cent who were opposed.

Thirty per cent of women backed quotas compared with 27 per cent who were opposed. Among men, 34 per cent supported them, but 39 per cent were against.

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