The ‘dad vote’ crucial to Labor’s polling rebound

Labor has rebounded from months of political pain to harness a big shift in its favour from male voters, including younger men who were leaning towards the Liberals before the election campaign began in earnest.

Men have backed Labor in force over the past four weeks and helped the government recover some of the ground it has lost since the last election, to the point where their support for Labor in two-party terms has climbed to 50 per cent, up from 42 per cent over the first two months of the year.

Voters aged 35 to 54 have also shifted strongly behind Labor and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese over the past four weeks, lifting their support in two-party terms to 52 per cent, much higher than their support of 45 per cent during January and February.

The exclusive findings, in the Resolve Political Monitor conducted for this masthead, also counter a recent theory that Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has benefited from young men becoming more conservative.

The results suggest that young men are shifting back to Labor. While there have been signs of a move the other way, the new data shows young men are about as likely as young women to prefer the ALP in a two-party contest.

The findings in the Resolve Political Monitor compare surveys of more than 3013 voters in January and February with a separate group of 3083 voters in March, just after the federal budget.

The trend across the two cohorts suggests there is a single set of voters in both groups – young fathers – who are turning in Albanese’s favour. Resolve director Jim Reed said the “dad vote” was helping to give Albanese a strong start to the race for power.

“The data tells us that medium-income, middle-aged men have swung back with gusto,” Reed said. “This suggests that Labor’s message to middle Australia has been pitched correctly. It also reflects the changing judgment of leadership strength and competence that we know appeals to the ‘dad’ segment.”

Women are slightly more likely to vote Labor, with 51 per cent giving the party their support in two-party terms in March, but this is not a major change because 50 per cent backed the party in the January and February results.

The results are based on the same questions asked of voters in three monthly surveys, with respondents nominating their preferences as they would on a ballot paper at the election. This generates a guide to the final two-party support.

Analysis: Labor’s gains could still leave it stranded on plateau

Three big themes emerge from the last three months of Resolve Political Monitor data and its core finding that Labor and the Coalition are on 50 per cent each in two-party terms at a national level when voters nominate their preferences.

The first is that Albanese and Labor have recovered ground and launched their campaign on a strong footing – not just in this survey but in others.

The second is that Dutton and the Coalition have gained ground over this term. Labor has not won back all the voters it lost over three years, so the Coalition primary vote and two-party vote are both higher than at the last election. This means Labor is in trouble if it merely reaches a new plateau after its recent climb. It needs to keep climbing.

The third is that neither side can be confident of majority government on these results. Dutton and Albanese would have to negotiate for power in a 50:50 outcome. Both have the prize within their sights, even if Albanese has his fingertips a little closer.

The January and February results were combined to produce a larger base of 3013 eligible voters who could be studied by age and gender. The March survey, with 3083 respondents, was twice the size of the usual monthly track and therefore matched the scale of the combined group from the two earlier surveys.

The findings show that Dutton has several strongholds in the community. Voters aged over 55 back the Coalition by 60 to 40 per cent against Labor in two-party terms – stronger support for the Coalition than was seen at the last election, when it was 55 to 45 per cent.

Dutton also has many more supporters in his home state of Queensland, where the Coalition vote in two-party terms is 58 per cent and Labor has just 42 per cent. This is why Albanese is putting so much work into Brisbane seats, reasoning that Dutton has other parts of the state locked away.

The March data shows that men aged 18 to 34 tend to favour Labor: 33 per cent give Labor their primary vote, 27 per cent choose the Coalition and 23 per cent back the Greens. After these voters nominate their preferences, the result in two-party terms is that Labor leads by 62 to 38 per cent against the Coalition.

Among women the same age, the two-party result is 64 per cent for Labor and 36 per cent for the Coalition, which is not hugely different to the men. But the women get there a different way.

When asked for their primary vote, 30 per cent of young women back Labor and 23 per cent choose the Coalition, while 28 per cent support the Greens. They mark down the conservative side and prefer the Greens, which lifts the Labor vote in two-party terms.

In some electorates, those dynamics work differently, such as the seats held by the Greens and “teal” independents.

The rise of Donald Trump has provoked an ongoing debate about whether young men are growing more conservative. Other surveys have seen a hint of this at earlier times, but it is not happening in this latest survey.

Young men backed Labor by 55 to 45 per cent in Resolve surveys at the time of the last election. Now they side with Labor by 62 to 38 per cent.

“What had become a gaping partisan gender divide has slammed shut in the last month or so,” Reed said.

Labor may be turning things around with policies like its 20 per cent cut to student debt and cheaper childcare.

Other surveys may find different results. All surveys have a significant margin of error with these smaller cohorts that segment voters by age and gender.

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