Tactical Labor and Green voters drove teal wave, study finds

The teal wave that wiped the Liberal Party from inner-city electorates was driven by tactical Labor and Green voters, a major study of the 2022 election has found while revealing Anthony Albanese was viewed by voters as far more trustworthy and honest than Scott Morrison.

The Australian Election Study, compiled by the Australian National University and Griffith University, also showed Albanese was the most popular leader at an election since Kevin Rudd’s 2007 victory while Morrison was the least popular since the study started in 1987.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on election night with Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong and Albanese’s partner Jodie Haydon.Credit: Janie Barrett

The long-running study is based on a national survey of voters who took part in the 2022 federal election at which the primary vote for both major parties fell while support for independents and alternative parties soared.

The study found the number of people who said they had always voted for the same party fell to a record low of 37 per cent at this year’s election.

Much of that support had flowed to the Greens and teal independents who took previously safe Liberal seats including Kooyong and Goldstein in Melbourne, North Sydney and Mackellar in Sydney and Curtin in Perth.

The study found the majority of teal independent voters were tactical voters intent on unseating incumbent Liberal MPs. Of teal voters, 31 per cent had backed Labor at the 2019 election while 24 per cent had supported the Greens.

Another 23 per cent had voted for another party or individual while just 18 per cent had supported the Coalition at the 2019 election.

The study found a majority of teal supporters saw their traditional party as “non-viable” in their local seat, so decided to switch their vote to an independent expected to have a greater chance of victory.

The Liberal Party was viewed as more right-wing by teal voters than Labor voters.

Study co-author Sarah Cameron said the conditions for the rise of non-major parties and independents had been brewing for some time, with the 2022 election delivering voters viable alternatives.

“Voters were dissatisfied with the major parties generally, and the incumbent Coalition government and prime minister in particular,” she said.

“The teals also ran well-funded, well-organised campaigns that were widely covered in the media.

“The medium-term success of the teals will depend on how much they can create a distinct political identity to carry to the 2025 federal election.”

A key factor in this year’s election was the standing among voters of Albanese and Morrison.

Albanese was the 10th most popular leader of the 26 to have gone to an election since 1987, on a par with John Howard’s victory of 1998. Morrison was the lowest ranked, below Liberal leader Andrew Peacock at the 1990 election.

Morrison’s popularity was 25 per cent lower this year compared to his 2019 election victory.

While Coalition and Labor voters rated their respective leaders around the same, Coalition voters rated Albanese more highly than Labor voters rated Morrison.

Albanese dominated Morrison across most key leader characteristics measured by the study.

Among those surveyed, 73 per cent rated Albanese compassionate compared to 34 per cent for Morrison. Voters found Albanese far more trustworthy than Morrison (57-29), more competent (59-47), honest (61-32), sensible (68-46) and intelligent (65-61).

Study co-author Professor Ian McAllister said the public’s perceptions of Morrison around honesty and trustworthiness were a disadvantage.

“Anthony Albanese was evaluated more favourably than Scott Morrison in eight of nine leader characteristics, with the biggest differences in perceptions of honesty, trustworthiness and compassion,” he said.

“Labor entered the election with a leader, Anthony Albanese, who was more popular than both Scott Morrison and his Labor predecessor Bill Shorten.

“With Anthony Albanese as party leader, Labor attracted more votes based on leadership than in the 2016 and 2019 elections.”

The survey also suggests Nationals’ leader Barnaby Joyce was also a factor in the election, with an overall popularity level much lower than even Morrison.

Voters are also taking more control of their preferences. In 1996, 56 per cent of those surveyed said they followed a how-to-vote card. This year, that had fallen to 31 per cent, a majority saying they had decided their own preferences.

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