By David Crowe
Former Labor foreign ministers have warned that Australia must reconsider the AUKUS pact with the United States in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election, predicting the US will scale back the deal to protect itself.
The warnings heighten the argument over the far-reaching defence pact as Foreign Minister Penny Wong insists the government will keep ambassador Kevin Rudd in place in Washington, DC, despite his past criticism of Trump.
Former Labor foreign minister Bob Carr believes AUKUS should be reconsidered.Credit: Christopher Pearce
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton have both insisted the alliance is secure because of Australia’s historic friendship with America, while the defence plan assumes the US will sell nuclear-powered submarines to Australia from 2032.
Former foreign minister and NSW premier Bob Carr said the United States was already struggling to meet its targets to build more nuclear-powered submarines and would be reluctant to sell vessels to Australia as promised.
Carr said the most likely outcome was that the US president – such as the leader who comes after Trump – would decide to keep the Virginia-class vessels to maximise the number of nuclear-armed submarines in the US fleet. Once sold to Australia, the vessels could not be nuclear-armed.
“They’re not going to harm themselves by selling precious subs to Australia that, once they are sold to Australia, will cease to be nuclear-armed,” he said.
“I think that’s going to be the transmutation of AUKUS into a simple pact that says US subs will be based on the west and quite possibly the east coast of Australia.
“And it means the only sovereign submarine capacity we’ve got is the ageing Collins-class and what in the future might emerge from British shipyards.”
Carr said the “grandiosity” of AUKUS rendered it vulnerable to decisions by the Trump administration and a decision in the 2030s by a future president.
A US Virginia class nuclear-powered submarine berths in Western Australia in 2024. Credit: RAN
“I think at the very least there’s got to be a serious discussion in Canberra about whether we want a sovereign submarine capacity and whether we’ve got to accept that under intense competition with China, whether America in the 2030s can conceivably adhere to the grand promise.
“We’ve got to discuss the prospect that the decision will be made by people not yet in power in America.”
Gareth Evans, foreign minister in the Hawke and Keating governments, said the new administration was likely to voice support for AUKUS until practical pressures forced a new approach.
“Trump is transactional and will start like the Biden administration – seeing this as a good deal for the US financially and because the boats will be, for all practical purposes, US assets,” said Evans.
“But that will last only until it becomes apparent, probably in the next year or two, that the US shipyards are not meeting their own Virginia replacement targets.”
The AUKUS pact says the first vessel in a new design, known as the SSN-AUKUS, will be completed at an Australian shipyard in the early 2040s.
As an interim step, the government assumes US and UK submarines will start operating on rotation from HMAS Stirling, near Perth, from 2027, easing the burden on the ageing Australian Collins-class vessels.
Australia will also pay $4.7 billion to US companies to help fund the technologies – such as nuclear propulsion – needed for the new fleet.
Former attorney-general George Brandis, who was Australian high commissioner to the UK when the AUKUS pact was struck, said he believed the agreement was not under threat from Trump.
And former prime minister Scott Morrison, who struck the AUKUS alliance with the US and UK in 2021, said he was “quite confident” the Trump administration would support the agreement.
“It is true that President Trump has a reputation for being transactional, but that doesn’t mean he likes bad deals. He likes good deals. AUKUS is a good deal,” Morrison told Sky News on Wednesday.
“Australia carries its weight in that deal; you won’t find another defence agreement anywhere in the world where your ally is actually paying to support the industrial base in your own country, in the United States.”
Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull said he did not think Australia would ever get the Virginia-class submarines promised under AUKUS, but he said this would be due to constraints on the US Navy and not the personal views of Trump as president.
“The bottom line is the American Navy is at least 17 Virginia-class submarines short of what they believe they need,” Turnbull told Radio National on Thursday.
“The legislation which authorises America to sell Virginia-class submarines to Australia says that before doing so, the president has to certify that the US Navy’s underwater capabilities would not be diminished by the sale.
“In other words, that they’re surplus to the US Navy’s requirements. Now, I don’t see how an American president could do that.”
Rudd described Trump as “nuts” and a “traitor to the West” because of his stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but the former prime minister made the remarks as a private citizen before he was named as the ambassador in December 2022.
Coalition foreign affairs spokesman Simon Birmingham signalled on Wednesday morning that the government should reconsider Rudd’s appointment if he became a liability with the new administration.
“Obviously, everybody’s aware of what was said in the past that’s been publicised, but Kevin Rudd’s done a good job while he’s been in Washington,” Birmingham told the Nine Network.
“Now, the job is bigger than any one person or Anthony Albanese’s loyalties to any one person, so if he can’t do the job, he can’t get through the door and have the influence we need, then, of course, somebody else should take that on.
“But we wish him nothing but success because we want to see Australia’s best interests protected at all times.”
Wong backed Rudd on Thursday morning.
“Kevin’s done an outstanding job as ambassador, and he’s done an outstanding job with both Republicans and Democrats,” she said.
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