Politics, like comedy, is about timing. Albanese will be a victim of the liberal era’s fall

Great politicians seem to have two main things in common: they pick the right time to be born and they pick the right time to leave office. Everything in between will be recast in their favour if they only get these two things right.

Former German chancellor Angela Merkel recently released her memoir. She, without a doubt, picked the right time to be born. She was 35 when the Berlin Wall fell, creating a cause – an East German voice and self-determination in reunifying with the West – that impelled her into politics. She was undeniably smart, but also the right age and the right symbolic vehicle to catch chancellor Helmut Kohl’s eye and become his protegee. In just under 15 years, she became chancellor. If she’d left after one term – two at most – her greatness would never have been questioned. But after that, her legacy as a crucial advocate for East Germans in the process of unification and her historic ascent was overwritten by a series of decisions that have turned out to be disastrous for Germany, economically and geostrategically.

A shadow has fallen over Anthony Albanese’s prime ministership in 2024.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

US presidents Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton could also be said to have picked the right time to be born and, thanks to term limits in the US, also the right time to leave office. Reagan performed a necessary service in deregulating a sclerotic US economy, mired in stagflation, while presiding over the end of the Cold War.

Clinton presided over a peaceful age of free trade and international co-operation. While neither was a flawless leader and the numerous mistakes they made can easily be identified, they avoided leading their nations into catastrophe.

Anthony Albanese also picked the right time to be born: at the beginning of the ’60s, as the fruits of a social revolution against the rigid morality of the war generation were ripe and not yet spoiled. He was a beneficiary of the blossoming of the self-actualisation century, in which the chains of the traditional family were being rejected, to be replaced by a paternal social welfare state. As the child of a single mother, his timing was especially fortuitous; he and his mother were poor, but in highly relative terms historically. They lived in government-owned housing and his mother was entitled to (and received) a disability pension, as she was unable to work. His own university degree – nominally in political economy, mainly in ruthless campus politics – was free (to him, but of course not the taxpayer).

Albanese was, as it were, born into a cause: to call for more of this, which made him possible: more social solidarity delivered by the state to replace the sticky ties of family and community obligation that had been found to be unreasonably oppressive by his generation and some in the one before it. Though it wasn’t visible at the time – transformations of this kind are mostly visible only with the benefit of hindsight – Albanese was in on the ground floor of the transformation of Labor from the party of the worker to the party of the left-liberal, the party of welfare.

Operating the politics of this movement, Albanese gained the respect of his colleagues and parts of the public. In retrospect, his ideal moment to leave, with this legacy at its zenith, might have been the day in 2013 when he fronted cameras to lament the self-harm playing out within the Labor Party during yet another spill of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era.

Had he left then, he would have gone out channelling the disgust of Australians at the shenanigans of self-absorbed politicians, an avatar and hero of the people. Or maybe he could even have drawn it out a little longer and left a few years later, at the height of his “everyman” identity (according to The Daily Telegraph, which campaigned to “Save our Albo” in the face of a challenge to his seat from a group of further-left candidates).

In either scenario, he would have been remembered as a likeable character in the soap opera of politics – good for future cameos to rally the faithful, positioned for a plum public role. Instead, he became prime minister. And the times have not suited him at all.

I could talk about inflation and the cost of living, misjudging the mood of the nation over the Voice referendum, the war in the Middle East and antisemitism at home. Or his approach to change, which has been deemed too incremental by some, too radical by others. I could point to the grip in which he finds himself pinioned, between the forefinger of his younger self in Green-on-the-outside, red-on-the-inside ideologist Max Chandler-Mather and the thumb of John Setka loyalists and the rebellious union movement.

But none of these things are as fatal to his legacy as the luck of timing, because Albanese is a man built for an era of liberal gentility, who became PM just as the liberal era was drawing to an end.

Albanese can, at least in part, blame Merkel for ending it. The post-Cold War leader of Germany, which, as the largest European economy, has an outsized role in underwriting the European Union, placed her faith in diplomacy over energy security and military deterrence. Germany and Europe are now less able to stand up against Russian strongman Vladimir Putin’s attempt to seize Ukraine because of her miscalculations.

The chief foreign affairs columnist at the Financial Times, Gideon Rachman, also implicates former US President Barack Obama for compounding Merkel’s mistakes by responding weakly or seeking to appease dictators. He concludes that “decisions taken by the two leaders – or often the decisions not taken by them – had a damaging, if delayed, impact on global stability”.

When even liberals like Rachman recognise that liberal heroes have made the world more dangerous, it is no wonder that voters around the world (who are usually quicker than FT columnists to sniff approaching dangers) are choosing a rougher cut of leader to champion them into the second quarter of the 21st century.

Albanese will never be that. His political tradition is liberal largess, not protective menace. With the bad luck of timing hanging over him, whether he scrapes over the line at the coming election is moot. The politician he might have been remembered as has been overwritten. The question now is only whether his career is ended by his friends or his foes – with a bang, or with a long, drawn-out whimper.

Parnell Palme McGuinness is managing director at campaigns firm Agenda C. She has done work for the Liberal Party and the German Greens.

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