Peter Dutton likely to lead the opposition, but will he go the way of Brendan Nelson?

Peter Dutton is in the box seat to become the next leader of the federal opposition, but is he the right man to take the leadership of the Liberal Party?

Saturday’s election saw a progressive wave sweep away at least 17 of the government’s lower house MPs, with Labor, the Greens and teal independents all gaining seats.

Peter Dutton is poised to be the next leader of the Liberal Party.Credit: Jamila Toderas

Dutton’s public persona is set in cement: he’s the conservative warrior and arch-China hawk from Queensland who led Health, then Home Affairs and finally Defence over the last nine years; he dislikes “woke” morning teas, boycotted the apology to the stolen generation and relishes the scrap with Labor.

After the electorate’s comprehensive rejection of Scott Morrison’s government, it would seem the last thing the Liberal Party would want to do is move further to the right under Dutton.

But in reality it has little choice.

First of all, Dutton will be the first man not from NSW to lead the Liberal Party since Alexander Downer in 1995.

Since Downer, there have been five blokes from Sydney to lead the Liberals, and while going to a bloke from Queensland isn’t exactly going to win the opposition a diversity award, the state remains relatively conservative – aside from “Greensland” in inner-city Brisbane – and he will shore up that state.

Second, with the exit of Josh Frydenberg, there is no one in the Liberal party room who has anything like the public profile and experience of Dutton, not to mention the numbers in what is now a more conservative party room following the loss of Liberal moderates.

And third, Dutton is well liked by colleagues, seen as a pragmatic social conservative rather than a religious ideologue. Dutton was one of the fixers and architects of the same-sex marriage postal survey, and in his pitch to colleagues he has been promising a sensible approach to policy and that he won’t make a Trumpian lurch to the right.

That matters because the Coalition has lost nine formerly blue-ribbon Liberal heartland seats – six to the teals (adding to the three in parliament), one to the Greens and two to Labor (in Boothby and Higgins).

If Anthony Albanese fails to scrape together a majority of 76 seats, the teals will potentially be able to influence key decisions on climate policy and integrity, for example.

But if Labor does secure 76 seats, the teals will have less influence on policy but will be able to ensure their political brand remains unsullied by the horse-trading of parliamentary politics.

Either way, there is a very real prospect they could win a second term and if Rebekha Sharkie, Zali Steggall and Helen Haines are any guide, independents can be very difficult to remove after a term or two.

If those teals seats are lost to the Liberals then the task of winning back government will be even harder.

Liberal MPs who have spoken to The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age in the days following the election have said there is no appetite for another fight over climate change policy or on social issues like transgender rights.

But Dutton has a mountain to climb to overcome voters’ perceptions of both himself and the Coalition.

The risk for the Liberals is that no matter how hard Dutton fights, voter perceptions could be set. Like Brendan Nelson, who took power after John Howard lost in 2007 and was dumped as leader less than a year later, Dutton could end up as little more than a placeholder opposition leader, destined for the scrap heap.

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