Nationals’ nuclear climate policy puts Australia’s Paris deal in doubt

The Coalition cannot commit to Australia’s 2030 emissions reduction targets, with senior Nationals MPs conceding a plan to adopt nuclear power would mean a future Coalition government would not comply with the Paris Agreement.

Days after Opposition Leader Peter Dutton delayed his announcement of up to six sites for future nuclear power plants – the announcement is now expected after the budget – Nationals leader David Littleproud told this masthead the path to net zero emissions by 2050 would not be linear under a future Coalition government.

Nationals leader David Littleproud. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

The Nationals’ stated aim of slowing down the rollout of large-scale renewable energy projects, combined with the 15-year timeline for building a nuclear plant, means the Coalition would struggle if returned to power to meet Labor’s current target of 43 per cent emissions reduction by 2030.

But a Coalition government would inherit Australia’s legally binding 2030 target under the Paris Agreement, which requires nations to contribute to an international effort to keep global warming under 2 degrees.

Walking away from the Paris Agreement would infuriate Liberal moderates and MPs in metropolitan seats, where climate action is more popular; embolden the teals and other independents; and risk reigniting the climate wars fought between Nationals and Liberals in the former Morrison government.

Littleproud said “there is not a linear pathway to net zero, and trying to achieve one will have a detrimental impact on the economy. We have to have a broad-based solution rather than an all renewables approach.”

He would not commit to Australia’s climate target, set by the Albanese government, to cut emissions by 43 per cent by 2030.

“We want to wait and see what the modelling we come up with for 2030 [in the party’s new nuclear policy] says, but we won’t rush into anything ...”

Experts including former chief scientist Alan Finkel and former Australian Energy Infrastructure Commissioner Professor Andrew Dyer have said it would take a minimum of 15 years for a nuclear plant to be built in Australia.

Grattan Institute deputy energy director Alison Reeve said it would be impossible for Australia to reach its 2030 Paris target if there were a slowdown in the renewables rollout – including a pause to accommodate nuclear plants.

But former Nationals leaders Barnaby Joyce and Michael McCormack and the party’s Senate leader, Bridget McKenzie, have also questioned the government’s 2030 climate goals.

The Nationals’ pushback on the 2030 target is preventing moderate Liberals from advocating support for climate targets that would comply with the Paris deal.

Ted O’Brien, the opposition’s climate spokesman, did not answer questions about whether the Coalition supported Australia’s 2030 climate target but said he remained committed to net zero by 2050.

“Labor’s 43 per cent emissions reduction target, 82 per cent renewable energy target, 89 per cent electric vehicle target and the all-important $275 reduction in power bills are all dead in the water,” he said.

Opposition energy spokesman Ted O’Brien says nuclear power could be a reality in Australia within 10 years.Credit: Dion Georgopoulos

A spokeswoman for Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen said emissions-tracking data from December confirmed the government was on track to achieve its 2030 climate target, driven by renewable energy.

The most recent Resolve Political Monitor, published this week, showed Labor’s primary vote had fallen from 32 to 30 per cent while the Coalition’s had increased from 35 to 36 per cent. The parties’ relatively low primary votes suggest each could struggle to form a majority government.

Dutton and Littleproud say they are not opposed to renewable energy, but both warn the Albanese government’s target to double renewables’ share of electricity to 82 per cent of the grid by 2030 will increase power prices, destabilise supply and unfairly impact regional communities.

While Labor wants to replace coal-fired power plants with wind and solar, Dutton and Littleproud want the renewable rollout slowed down and nuclear power used as a replacement for polluting coal-fired power.

Former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce said, “We never signed up to 2030; we signed up to 2050 as a target.

“When I negotiated with [former prime minister Scott] Morrison, I said 2030 was off the table ... now people are coming onto people’s farms and building swindle [wind] factories or solar factories,” he said.

“If you want to drive your economy into the dirt and make Australia weak and unable to have the economic strength to stand up to China, continue on this [renewables] path.”

Fellow former Nationals leader Michael McCormack said the 43 per cent target Australia had signed up to was too ambitious.

“If you believe the experts, we are something like 1.6 per cent of world emissions ... and we’re taking all of these energy sources offline to have a 43 per cent target.”

Bridget McKenzie, who is also the Coalition’s infrastructure spokeswoman, described Australia’s “aggressive commitment to the Paris Agreement” as unfortunate and argued Labor did not have a credible path to lower emissions.

“Our focus, therefore, is on a credible, sustainable and, importantly, a regionally equitable pathway to net zero by 2050.”

The Grattan Institute’s Alison Reeve said Australia would not hit the 2030 target under the Coalition’s nuclear push because most of the decarbonisation needed hangs off the government’s renewable goals.

“If you don’t reach that, you just don’t meet the 2030 target,” she said.

The bulk of reductions are to come from reducing coal-fired power and achieving the target to boost renewables to 82 per cent of the grid by 2030.

Reeve said cutting emissions from the energy sector by replacing fossil fuel electricity with renewables was a fundamental underpinning of Australia’s climate policy and any slowdown in wind and solar farms would make it harder for other sectors to clean up their act.

“A lot of decarbonisation for the rest of Australia’s economy requires switching to electricity, so you need it to be clean, cheap and available. And we need a lot more of it,” she said.

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