Men swing support to Dutton as Labor loses ground in battleground states

Male voters have turned against Labor and increased their support for the Coalition in a big political shift over the past six months, deepening the dangers for the government when it is also losing ground in battleground states.

An exclusive survey shows men have cut their support for Labor from 37 per cent in the final months of last year to 31 per cent in the first months of this year.

Women’s backing for the government fell from 36 per cent to 33 per cent over the same period, returning their Labor primary vote to the level seen at the federal election two years ago.

The Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for this masthead by Resolve Strategic, also reveals a move against Labor in the five biggest states, including a decline in its Queensland primary vote from 33 to 29 per cent since the final quarter of last year.

However, the government has gained ground in marginal seats over the past two years. Resolve director Jim Reed said the findings suggested a narrow Labor victory or a hung parliament if the results were reflected at an election.

“There’s now a small two-party preferred swing against Labor since the last election nationwide, but they’ve actually gained a few points in suburban marginal seats,” Reed said.

“These gains make it harder for the Coalition to wrestle marginal seats back because they’re having to fight a national campaign at the same time [as] they spend more on local battlegrounds.

“It’s way too early to make election predictions, but certainly the current standing would result in either a hung parliament or another narrow Labor majority.

“We detect a strong protest message in the anti-Labor vote in our analysis right now, so it’s entirely possible that those people come back to the fold or at least preference Labor when it comes to the crunch. That’s if they are still listening by the election.”

The findings come as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers seek to lift the government’s fortunes in the federal budget next week after heated debates about male violence against women, student protests about the Middle East and border protection.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (left) has retained his personal lead over Peter Dutton in NSW and Victoria, but the opposition leader has turned the tables in his home state of Queensland.Credit: Fairfax Media

The survey results show voting trends over many months and do not reflect views on the recent debate on violence against women.

The most dramatic changes shown by the new analysis are the fall in support for Albanese and Labor over the past year, wiping away the gains made during the post-election “honeymoon” period when the party’s primary vote climbed from 33 per cent to 41 per cent.

Labor’s core support has fallen from 34 per cent in February to 32 per cent in March and 30 per cent in April, giving it a primary vote of 32 per cent over the quarter. The Coalition primary vote over the last three months is 36 per cent nationwide, confirming the party has returned to the core support it recorded at the election.

The results across all marginal electorates over the past three months show Labor has a primary vote of 29 per cent in those seats. This is down over the past year after reaching 39 per cent in the June 2023 quarter, but slightly higher than the 27 per cent result for the party at the last election. The Coalition is down from 41 to 38 per cent in marginal electorates over the two years.

Albanese remains ahead of Opposition Leader Peter Dutton in NSW and Victoria when voters are asked to name their preferred prime minister, with a national lead of 40 to 31 per cent.

But Dutton has turned the tables in his home state of Queensland, where he is now the preferred prime minister by a margin of 40 to 34 per cent. Albanese led on this measure by 39 to 32 per cent in Queensland in the final three months of last year.

The state-by-state results show Labor’s primary vote has fallen in the major states since the last quarter and the Coalition has increased its core support from 30 to 34 per cent in Victoria, 34 to 36 per cent in NSW and 35 to 40 per cent in Queensland.

Labor risks losing office or sliding into minority government if it cannot hold key seats in Western Australia, where it made big gains at the last election. The government has promised the state at least $5 billion a year in top-up GST payments, infuriating other states, and Albanese is making regular visits to WA to shore up support.

The new analysis shows West Australian voters have cut their support for Labor from 34 to 32 per cent since the December quarter. This compares to the Labor primary vote in the state of 37 per cent at the last election.

The Coalition has a primary vote of 35 per cent in WA in the latest Resolve analysis, in line with the result of the last election.

The Resolve quarterly analysis is based on responses from 4614 voters over three surveys from February to April. This enables comparisons with the earlier quarterly periods and the outcome of the last federal election.

The survey groups change each month and reflect the national population, which means the sample sizes are smaller for states such as WA and the margin of error is therefore greater for state-by-state results.

Because the Resolve surveys ask voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they fill in their ballot papers for the lower house at an election, there was no “undecided” category in the results, a key difference from some other polls.

Reed said economic pressures were driving some of the shift in support.

“The Coalition’s biggest gains over the last two years have come from older people, especially males, smaller states, rural areas and those on lower or fixed incomes,” he said. “These groups tend to be more sensitive to financial pressures.”

Men increased their primary vote support for the Coalition from 33 per cent in the December quarter to 39 per cent in the last three months. Women increased their support for the Coalition from 31 to 33 per cent over the same time.

Surveys by Freshwater Strategy in The Australian Financial Review have shown a similar trend among men. Freshwater director Michael Turner said Labor’s primary vote in December 2022 was 37 per cent for men and women, but this fell to 29 per cent among men and 33 per cent among women in last month’s survey.

“There has indeed been a larger decline in support for Labor among men,” Turner said.

The Resolve surveys show Labor’s primary vote among men has fallen from 41 per cent in the December quarter of 2022 to 31 per cent in the three months to April this year, and from 39 to 33 per cent among women over the same period.

Labor lost ground across the three age cohorts in the Resolve surveys, with voters aged 55 and older cutting their support from 38 per cent in the December quarter to 30 per cent in the past three months.

Younger voters’ support was down by a smaller amount. The primary vote fell from 38 to 35 per cent over the same period among those aged 18 to 34 while those aged 35 to 54 cut their Labor primary vote from 34 to 31 per cent.

The Coalition won more support in each of those age cohorts compared to late last year, including an increase in primary vote from 40 to 46 per cent among voters aged 55 and over.

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