I’m sorry to say that while the federal election will be close and exciting, it won’t be particularly inspiring
We are potentially just a week away from Prime Minister Anthony Albanese sliding into “C1”, his white BMW 7 Series car, and making the short trip from Parliament House in Canberra to Government House to call the federal election.
The most likely scenario over the coming week is that Treasurer Jim Chalmers hands down the federal budget on Tuesday, he and Albanese sell it for a few days, and then the prime minister visits Governor-General Sam Mostyn on Friday or Sunday.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in C1 earlier this year. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
The election will be on May 3, May 10 or May 17 – nearly three years to the date since the 2022 poll when Scott Morrison and the Coalition were swept from office.
Who is going to win in 2025? I have no idea. Anyone who tells you what will happen is lying because polls suggest the race is tight and a disastrous election campaign from either Albanese or Opposition Leader Peter Dutton could seal their fate.
However, both sides are preparing for a possible hung parliament, which would trigger a scramble to secure the support of minor parties or independents. Published opinion polls suggest Labor’s primary vote is still in the low 30s, or perhaps as bad as the high 20s, and it is hard to see the government picking up a swag of seats in May. It’s also hard to see the Coalition winning the 20-plus new seats needed for it to form government in its own right.
After a summer of panic from Labor MPs, momentum appears to be swinging back towards the prime minister and his government. Dutton spent much of 2024 setting the political agenda but has had a shocker of late following a series of self-inflicted errors and confusion over policy.
The latter was brilliantly exposed this week by the Herald’s terrific political correspondent Paul Sakkal, who revealed Dutton was considering an election pledge to hold a referendum next term on deporting criminal dual nationals. Paul’s story triggered a day of mixed messages from Coalition frontbenchers and gave voters reason to doubt whether the opposition leader was really focused on the issues of most importance to them.
Under the leadership of federal bureau chief Michelle Griffin, the Herald has detailed plans for covering the coming election, and our reporters from Canberra, Sydney and Melbourne have put a lot of thought into how best to tackle the race. An important aspect is reporting on what politicians aren’t talking about, but should be.
For me, the biggest gap in politics right now is ideas. I loved a recent piece by chief political correspondent David Crowe, who lamented that Australia is in an economic holding pattern after the pandemic, yet there is no consensus on reform.
“Productivity is woeful,” David wrote. “The Reserve Bank thinks it shrank 1.9 per cent last year. Households are not wrong to feel they are falling behind: without a significant economic turnaround, living standards will decline.
“One of the best measures of personal prosperity, real household disposable income per capita, was flat over the past year. It was, at least, up by 0.7 per cent in the quarterly results issued last week.
“Which side has an answer? So far, neither. Labor offers platitudes, the Liberals offer complaints. Australia needs more ideas that will lift growth, add to household wealth and build a stronger nation. Where are they?”
As David wrote, next Tuesday’s federal budget forces attention on these questions.
But don’t hold your breath for compelling answers. The election race may be tight, and it will certainly be interesting. But it’s not going to be inspiring.
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