If not now, when? Frydenberg now bets on a distant future

The campaign for Josh Frydenberg turned into a rapid retreat on Monday when the former treasurer doused talk about returning to politics and pledged his support for the Liberal woman who aims to win the seat he once held.

Frydenberg took to social media to declare his plans. “I am not rushing back to politics,” he said. “I will continue to support the Liberal Party and our local candidate Amelia Hamer.”

Josh Frydenberg says he will not contest his former seat of Kooyong at the next federal election.Credit: Michael Quelch

Hamer, the Liberal choice to contest the seat of Kooyong in the wealthiest parts of Melbourne, can now focus on trying to defeat the teal independent, Monique Ryan, without worrying about being pushed aside for Frydenberg.

Everyone seemed content. Frydenberg can focus on his job as chairman of Goldman Sachs Australia, with a very good salary and time to coach his children at football. Senior Liberals wish him well. And Opposition Leader Peter Dutton does not have to worry about a potential rival returning to parliament.

This means Frydenberg has no realistic way to contest the next election. Could he try for Kooyong after that? In theory, that makes him a potential candidate in 2028 – a far distant future.

Frydenberg, who turns 53 next month, has an obvious ambition to become prime minister, but there is no easy option to reclaim Kooyong and seek that victory.

The truth is that nobody gets a smooth elevation to the top. The last federal leader to enjoy a spectacular rise was Bob Hawke, who entered parliament in October 1980 and became prime minister in March 1983. This was proof he was one of a kind.

Amelia Hamer will be the Liberal candidate for Kooyong at the next election.Credit: Eddie Jim

John Howard had to survive 13 years in opposition before becoming prime minister at 56. Anthony Albanese had to wait for nine years of Coalition rule before he became prime minister at 59.

Frydenberg’s friends say he has strong support to return to parliament and can call on that loyalty when the time is right. His enemies, however, are fed up with claims that the party is begging him to return.

Some in the Victorian division of the Liberal Party want to freeze him out for good. Every time he dips his toes in the water, if they have their way, his feet will turn blue.

Even those who admire Frydenberg are frustrated with the regular speculation about his return. Some blame the media for this, as if it is making it all up. But the story is not fiction. Former cabinet minister Karen Andrews went public on Sunday for a reason when she said Frydenberg should return to politics. Like others, she wanted to make it happen.

Yes, the push ended quickly, but it was real.

Will there be another cycle of speculation? Some groan at the thought of going through it again. After all, there was talk about drafting Frydenberg after the October 7 terrorist attack on Israel, then again when the preselection began for Kooyong at the start of this year, and then again in the past few days.

Credit: Matt Golding

“This is the third time he’s put a kite up – it’s a problem with indecision,” says one senior Liberal. There will be no patience with another kite.

A strong supporter of Hamer, Charlotte Mortlock, seems overjoyed at Frydenberg’s statement.

“It’s been fantastic to see the outpouring of support from people both inside and outside the party for our brilliant candidate for Kooyong,” says Mortlock, who founded advocacy group Hilma’s Network to encourage Liberal women.

Hamer is so happy she has thanked Frydenberg for his “unwavering” support. “I think Josh is a fantastic figure in the party, but I am the candidate for Kooyong and I intend to continue standing,” she says.

This is a good outcome for Hamer’s supporters including Coalition finance spokeswoman Jane Hume, one of the federal party’s most senior Victorians. It is a victory for those who want to encourage more women into the party and appeal to voters who have drifted to the teal independents.

But it is also an important moment in the Liberal timeline. What if Dutton does not make much headway against Labor at the next election? What if the party needs to turn to a new leader? Frydenberg, a popular treasurer, would be a logical contender. But he will not be in parliament.

Perhaps Ryan could hold Kooyong for so long that he never gets a chance to return. Perhaps Hamer will win the seat at the coming election, joining a new generation of Liberals who will remake the party. Perhaps Frydenberg can return only by challenging a sitting Liberal. He has done this before; he can be ruthless when needed.

That’s why the past few days were important. The moment to restore Frydenberg to federal politics may have passed. But if it ever comes, it will not come easy.

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