Election delivers hard lessons for the Libs. But they can’t say they weren’t warned

The federal election result carries some hard-won lessons. The overarching lesson for the Liberals is to accept that they’re just not very good at politics.

A fundamental failure: They’ve been suffering a shrinking share of women’s votes since 1996. But the evidence shows they prefer to keep the boys’ club intact even if it pushes them into extinction.

Illustration by Dionne Gain

In their search for guidance after their crushing defeat on Saturday, Liberals and their media allies are turning to sources of conservative wisdom, including Margaret Thatcher. I haven’t seen any of them citing Thatcher’s 1975 observation: “In politics if you want anything said, ask a man. If you want anything done, ask a woman.”

The Liberals suffer male-pattern deafness on this wisdom. Women voters are not a minority to be tolerated. They are the majority. On Saturday, just as they did in 2022, female voters of every age preferred Labor.

The Liberals know they have a problem. Ten years ago, they set a target to achieve 50 per cent women’s representation in parliament by 2025. Instead, they preselected only 34 per cent women for Saturday’s election, very few of them in winnable seats.

We await full results, but as things stand, there are just four women out of the 30 Liberal and LNP candidates for the House that the Electoral Commission classifies as “ahead” in the count. Do the Liberals think it’s a mere coincidence that all the “teals” taking once-safe Liberal seats are women?

A reader of the Herald, Alastair McKean of Greenwich, wrote a one-sentence letter to the editor on Monday: “I wonder where the Liberal Party would be today if it had elected Julie Bishop as leader seven years ago?”

It’s a fair bet that they’d be in better standing than they are today. Bishop was by far the most popular Coalition politician at the time. The Liberals chose Scott Morrison instead.

The Coalition’s policy to end working from home for public servants, withdrawn after the damage had been done, was disastrous mainly because it was profoundly anti-women. But the Liberals blundered ahead with a male-centric campaign featuring Peter Dutton driving trucks and endlessly pumping petrol into cars.

Another lesson the Liberals consistently fail to learn? The senior Coalition partner is being inexorably consumed by the junior, a reverse takeover of the Liberals by the Nationals. Ever since Barnaby Joyce led the Coalition away from John Howard’s policy in favour of investigating an emissions trading scheme, the Liberals have been beholden to the Nats, especially on climate change.

Peter Dutton, talking about the petrol excise policy at a petrol station. Credit: James Brickwood

Tony Abbott partnered with Joyce to lead the Coalition deep into climate denialism. And because it worked politically for a while, the Liberals were enchanted with running continuous energy wars against Labor. To the point where, as Nationals leader David Littleproud boasted last week, he “got nuclear up” as Coalition policy, though he later said it was a joint project with Dutton. Even after Saturday’s election loss, Littleproud refused to accept that the plan for a nationalised nuclear energy system was a reason for the defeat.

And why would he? The Nationals did well on Saturday. Of their 10 seats in the House, they lost one but gained another, so they remain with their total intact. So they outperformed the Liberals, as they did in 2022.

Love from the Murdoch media is the siren song that lures smitten Liberals onto the rocks of electoral disaster.

One of Dutton’s achievements was to keep the Coalition unified. But only by agreeing to Nationals’ priorities that sometimes harmed the Liberals: “The Liberals should stop letting the National Party and Peta Credlin design their energy policy,” a senior Liberal says. “Neither of them has any credentials in energy or economics. The election was a referendum on their pro-nuclear, anti-renewables policy, and it was rejected overwhelmingly. It’s 2025, not 2013 when Abbott won an election.”

The smart move for the Liberals is to move into the 21st century. Accept that climate change is real. Accept the imperative of the transition to renewables and maximise Australia’s gain from the greatest global investment boom in a generation. And argue with Labor over how – rather than whether – to roll it out. This is what the NSW Liberal government did.

So what if the Nationals take a different position? That’s the whole point of the Coalition – the Nationals appeal to a regional constituency while the Liberals win seats in the cities. The Liberals need to recover the ability to fulfil their existential purpose.

A third lesson that the Liberals really should learn? The Murdoch media is their ally, but it is not a good indicator of electoral support. When The Australian, Sky News After Dark, the Daily Telegraph and the rest lavish praise and encouragement on the Liberals, the credulous Libs interpret this as public support.

It is not. It is Murdoch support. And that is not going to win you an election. This election, once again, illustrates the impotence of Murdoch to generate votes. Love from the Murdoch media is the siren song that lures smitten Liberals onto the rocks of electoral disaster.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers (right) and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on the campaign trail. Credit: Getty Images

Saturday also offers two heartening lessons from Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Parrots. One is confirmation that money can’t buy federal elections in Australia. Palmer spent an estimated minimum of $50 million, garnered under 2 per cent of the vote and won nothing but ridicule. The other is that populism isn’t necessarily popular.

Finally is the lesson that Jim Chalmers appears to have learnt. The treasurer has a PhD in Paul Keating studies. One of his conclusions seems to be that it is wiser to work loyally with your prime minister than to set up an all-consuming Keatingesque rivalry.

Although Chalmers has emerged as the obvious successor to Anthony Albanese, he calls his leader a Labor hero, credits him with the election victory and says that “my expectation and my hope is that he serves a full term and runs again”. Abjuring personal ambition, he says he’d be “very happy” to remain as treasurer for the life of the Labor government.

This is smart. Overweening ambition is highly destructive. Albanese is 62. Chalmers is 47. He can afford to wait. Now Chalmers needs to learn the positive lesson that Keating dispensed – how to take advantage of a prime minister’s success in winning elections to carry out a treasurer’s job of revitalising the economy.

Peter Hartcher is political editor.

Read more on Labor’s landslide election win

• Inside story: How the Coalition campaign was a catastrophe months in the making
• Some seats are still too close to call. Here are all the races that remain in doubt – plus every seat that’s changed hands 
• Interactive: See how your polling booth voted in this election
• Live results: Track every seat in the country 
• Live blog: Anthony Albanese plans second term, Liberals plan a leadership change

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