Dutton to cut migrant numbers by 100,000 people each year

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Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has committed to cutting new migrant numbers by 100,000 people each year, reinstating an ambitious target the Coalition had walked away from and prompting industry warnings that it could jeopardise the workforce needed to build homes.

Dutton said the Coalition would impose the cuts “straight away, once we get into government” based on whatever the budget forecasts were, as he aimed to bring down population growth to free up housing for Australians.

Peter Dutton plans to cut new migrant numbers by 100,000 people each year.Credit: Matthew Absalom-Wong

But the significant reduction risks backlash from businesses, industry groups and farmers who rely on migrant labour. The opposition leader has also been forced to defend his support for immigration after facing an audience question at the first leaders’ debate about “demonising migrants” in political debate.

“I’ve said repeatedly that we are a great beneficiary of the migration program in our country,” Dutton said on Wednesday. He said migrant families were just as concerned about the housing market.

Australia’s peak body for builders, however, warned blunt cuts to migration could jeopardise efforts to build housing stock as 25 per cent of the industry is made up of overseas workers.

“Labour shortages are currently the biggest handbrake on new home building and infrastructure projects. If we’re to have any hope of building 1.2 million homes, we need to get skilled tradies into the country quickly,” said Denita Wawn, the chief executive of Master Builders Australia.

“Any changes to migration levels must not undermine our ability to secure the tradie workforce needed to build the homes Australians are crying out for.”

Based on Labor’s budget forecast that there will be a net increase of 260,000 migrants next financial year, the Coalition’s target would be 160,000 net arrivals – the same figure the opposition dumped in December in favour of a more “realistic” number.

Dutton made the commitment under questioning from this masthead during a press conference in the western Sydney seat of McMahon on Wednesday. The opposition had not outlined a target for net migration since abandoning the 160,000 target that Dutton had revealed after the 2024 budget.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton committed to the target during a press conference on Wednesday.Credit: James Brickwood

Industry groups – including the Business Council of Australia, Australian Chamber of Commerce and the Australian Industry Group – sounded the alarm about the Coalition’s target last year based on concern it would damage the economy and restrict the flow of skilled foreign workers when industries, including construction and tourism, are short of staff.

Bran Black, chief executive of the Business Council of Australia, repeated that warning on Wednesday. “These proposals could negatively impact our economy, compound our existing skills shortages and make it harder to invest in new projects and grow businesses,” he said.

“Australia’s migration program should be geared towards helping address our growing skills shortages and backing in our international education sector as the country’s fourth-largest export.”

Until Wednesday, Dutton had been campaigning on his plan to reduce permanent migration by 25 per cent. This is less contentious, as permanent migrants are often people already in Australia.

Net overseas migration, on the other hand, measures the total number of arrivals who increase the population, including students and skilled workers who stay for a set time. Those figures have caused a political headache for the Albanese government, as numbers have significantly exceeded its forecasts – reaching a record 528,000 in 2022-23 – and only more recently started to stabilise.

Asked on Wednesday whether he was still committed to cutting net migration by about 100,000 people, Dutton said: “Yes ... We can reduce the NOM [net overseas migration figure] by 100,000 … Straightaway, once we get into government, we can deal with Labor’s mess.”

Dutton said the Coalition’s precise target would be determined by figures in the final budget outcome. “If you look at the prime minister, [he’s had] all sorts of wild projections in relation to NOM [net overseas migration] ... and their migration targets always blow out,” he said.

“The figure that it is when we change government – we can reduce it by 100,000.”

Dutton confirmed that the target would be 160,000 if the budget papers retained a forecast of 260,000.

The pledge will require Dutton to find cuts in the migration program that go beyond the extra reduction of 30,000 foreign students he announced on the weekend.

Immigration expert Abul Rizvi said Dutton had not specified policies to cut numbers by 100,000, and that doing so would provoke fights with farmers, the tourism industry and businesses.

But Dutton on Wednesday said he was not concerned about backlash.

“I’m not worried about that. I’ve got the first and foremost interest in mind, and that is to get young Australians into housing,” he said.

“I’m not going to tolerate Labor’s policy where they’re happy that Australians and young Australians can’t get into housing.”

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