Dutton the Queenslander to kick off shadow election campaign in Melbourne

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will hold his first campaign-style rally in Melbourne on Sunday, joining Anthony Albanese on an early-January shadow election footing as both politicians pitch to voters in states critical to their paths to victory.

The opposition is on guard for an early election after Albanese sprung into campaign mode with a tour of regional Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia this week, putting pressure on Dutton to match the prime minister.

Anthony Albanese donned his Akubra to begin the new year campaigning in Queensland, while Peter Dutton will be in Melbourne.Credit: Marija Ercegovac

Senior Liberals were told on Wednesday of a Sunday morning rally in Melbourne’s east, where the opposition is desperate to win back the seats of Chisholm and Aston, which could help pave an unlikely pathway to The Lodge for Dutton.

“You’re invited to a CAMPAIGN RALLY with Peter Dutton,” reads an invitation sent to Liberals on Wednesday and seen by this masthead.

It said an eastern suburbs location would be revealed on Friday. The event will be in Chisholm, a Chinese-heavy seat which Labor won from the Coalition in 2022. Using the party’s election slogan, the invitation added: “Let’s get Australia back on track.”

It is unusual for political leaders to pitch to voters in the holiday period weeks before Australia Day, but Albanese could call an election on January 19 for February 22. However, political insiders regard that as unlikely.

Independent MP Jacqui Lambie told Sky News this week it was “bizarre” politicians were campaigning so early, saying Australians wanted to enjoy their holidays undisturbed.

Several government insiders, unable to discuss election timing publicly, said they believed he was more likely to set a date for early April, after the March state election in Western Australia. That would also avoid having to deliver a budget in March, showing major deficits. May is the last month an election can be held.

Albanese has been coy on election timing. His decision to begin the unofficial election campaign in mining states reflects his desire to cling to four key seats in Western Australia and keep Queenslanders onside with billions of dollars for roads, housing and community facilities that the prime minister has announced this week.

Facing questions in Mount Isa on whether Labor’s spending had fuelled inflation and thwarted rate cuts, Albanese defended his record and said spending on aged care, childcare and the NDIS created a fairer society at risk from the Coalition’s pledge to cut spending in unspecified areas.

“What I say to people is, if you’ve got a mum or dad who’s in aged care, you’re pretty damn glad that there’s a nurse in a nursing home 99 per cent of the time,” Albanese said in Mount Isa. “[Dutton] has a small, myopic vision for this country.”

Dutton, who has not made public appearances this week, will kick off his year in Melbourne’s diverse suburbs.

Chisholm, where Sunday’s rally will be held, has the highest proportion of Chinese-Australian voters of any seat nationally, and flipped to Labor at the last election as part of a backlash over the Morrison government’s strident criticism of China.

Victoria has emerged as a key focus for Liberal campaign officials this year after several elections in which the state had few seats in play.

But an unpopular and ageing state Labor government has contributed to a swing of 4.6 per cent away from the federal party in Victoria since the 2022 election, compared to between about 1-2 per cent in other states, according to an average of opinion polls compiled by the PollBludger website.

Liberal MP Keith Wolahan, whose electorate of Menzies borders Chisholm, has led his party’s mission to mend relations with this group of voters after they turned away from the Morrison government in large numbers, in part over its criticism of China.

This masthead’s Resolve Political Monitor puts Labor’s primary vote at 29 per cent in the state, compared with 32.8 per cent at the election, and on par with the national average.

While some Liberals remain cautious about a jurisdiction in which they have won only one state election since 1996 and hold 11 of 39 federal seats, they are hopeful the recent switch from state leader John Pesutto to Brad Battin has put an end to a lengthy internal rift over the fate of renegade state MP Moira Deeming.

Credit: Matt Golding

Dutton’s office declined to comment on Sunday’s event.

Other than Aston and Chisholm in the east, other Liberal targets include McEwen in the outer north, and bayside’s Goldstein. Safer Labor seats in working-class areas such as Bruce, Hawke and Holt are also being talked about by Labor and Liberal officials, but are less likely to turn blue. The Liberals are also eyeing the seats of Corangamite, around Geelong, and Dunkley, centred on Frankston.

Tony Barry, a former Liberal strategist and director at political consultancy Redbridge, said it was unclear if Dutton’s hardman image would resonate in arguably Australia’s most cosmopolitan state.

To win a majority, Barry said Dutton needed to win about six seats in Victoria, a task he said would require wins in difficult seats.

“Although Victorian Labor traditionally has a strong incumbency campaign program, they are fighting against the political gravity of significant party brand damage and an electorate experiencing high levels of economic stress,” he said.

“The risk for Dutton is he is putting a lot of his of eggs in the Victorian Liberal Party basket case.”

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