Dutton abandons Liberal principles in nuclear energy pitch

Friday the 13th marked an auspicious day for the Coalition’s free market principles. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton declared his government would spend tens of billions of taxpayers’ dollars to achieve his nuclear ambitions.

This is a startling goal for the conservative force in Australian politics, which traditionally advocates shrinking the role of government.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen.

Not only does Dutton aim to increase public spending; he would bring to a screeching halt the private investment – $40 billion in the past four years – pouring into renewable energy. And all without any evidence his actions would bring down power bills.

The Dutton plan says renewable energy would not exceed 53 per cent of the grid’s supply – a level set to be reached sometime in 2026 – largely through projects already under way.

Dutton wants to present a cheaper alternative for the energy grid so he can attack the Albanese government over its failed, ill-advised 2022 election promise to cut household power bills by $275 by next year.

He showed on Friday that he’s willing to ditch the private sector to do it.

As opposition energy spokesman Ted O’Brien said on Saturday: “Our focus is not trying to ensure investors make a buck. Our focus is trying to ensure households save a buck.”

The problem for Dutton is that the CSIRO says nuclear energy in Australia would be at least 50 per cent more expensive than renewable energy.

That’s a key reason why the opposition cannot point to any figures showing its plan would bring down power bills.

But there is also a problem with the opposition’s claim that its plan is 44 per cent cheaper than the government’s. The plan relies on a power grid that would be 40 per cent smaller than the government’s in 2050 (with much of the cost of building nuclear reactors repaid after 2050 and not counted in its figures).

The modelling cited by the opposition assumes industrial energy use will fall 45 per cent by 2030.

While the opposition is right to state previous forecasts for energy use have proven too optimistic, it cannot avoid the fact that its energy plan outlines a vision for a smaller economy, with less private investment and fewer businesses.

It is also betting against growth in future industries that use vast volumes of energy, such as data centres, AI and cryptocurrencies.

‘Shutdown scenario’

University of NSW senior researcher Dylan McConnell said this spells a significant reduction in energy use, or “load”, from businesses such as aluminium smelting and manufacturing.

“Essentially, it’s a shutdown scenario, where there’s a closure of large industrial load,” McConnell said. “It’s planning for a lower economic growth and a sadder future.”

While the opposition veers into the economic turf of the left, the Albanese government is relying on the market for hundreds of billions of dollars to boost renewable energy to 82 per cent of the grid by 2030 – a goal some experts say is unreachable.

Voters are left to choose between a deeply cynical opposition and an overly optimistic government.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis from Jacqueline Maley. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter here.