After a blur of bills, Albanese and Dutton must sharpen their focus for the fight ahead

Anthony Albanese clearly wants an election dividend from his policy slog over the past two weeks in getting laws through parliament to deliver on his promises.

But the prime minister cannot count on the reward when he knows that the next election will be decided on what he offers next.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese brings out Finance Minister Katy Gallagher and Treasurer Jim Chalmers to celebrate their successes. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

The Labor strategy is all about the “forward offer” to Australians about what they should expect over the next three years, rather than counting on their gratitude for the laws just passed.

Albanese emerges from this week with a greater confidence that he can get his way by holding the line. He secured the passage of cost-of-living measures despite Coalition objections, while gaining the sweet victory of staring down the Greens on housing.

Greens leader Adam Bandt has pivoted to keeping the Coalition out of power after spending most of this year targeting Labor for not going far enough on housing and the environment. The implicit admission is that the Greens have been splitting the progressive side of politics when many of their own supporters want them to confront the conservative side instead.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has kept a low profile during the frenzy in parliament. He has driven the agenda on one big change – the social media ban for under 16s that he called for in June, and which Albanese adopted in September. And he has done a deal with Labor on tougher migration laws for detainees. Now the test is what he does next.

Greens leader Adam Bandt has swung the message from attacking Labor to targeting Peter Dutton. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

Australians may not see this week as decisive at all. Why should they? The frantic passage of 31 bills in a single day has a real downside for the government because the changes will be a blur to many voters. In fact, they were a blur to some in parliament.

The Senate passed so many laws on Thursday night that some changes went through without a murmur of debate and no chance for opponents to question any of the details. Independent senator Jacqui Lambie was right to berate Labor for guillotining more laws in three years than the Coalition had in nine.

Anyone who remembers how the Senate should work, with a committee stage to subject draft law to scrutiny, could not possibly see the past week as a step forward for parliament.

To be fair to Labor, this reflects the fact that the Coalition seeks to block most government bills, the Greens delay changes they end up supporting and the crossbench is more fragmented than ever, with eight independents and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton kept a low profile this week but scored two significant wins. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

This week has answered the immediate question about a race to the election in the opening weeks of the new year. Albanese says he expects parliament to return in February. That leaves room for an election to be called later that month, although some believe Labor needs more time and should go to the polls in May.

Dutton is also pressed for time. There was no real test for him in parliament this fortnight, but there will be in the weeks ahead when he is expected to release details of his nuclear energy plan. After ducking questions for most of the year, he finally has to tell voters what he will do. That means taking a risk.

For all the argument about the cost of living, Dutton and the shadow treasurer, Angus Taylor, are yet to venture any significant plan to lower household costs or increase housing supply. Their migration plan is a vague target with no detail. And they have voted against household help like energy subsidies, a potential vulnerability at the election.

Can Dutton and Taylor really convince Australians with a policy blitz over a few short months? Assuming, of course, they have done the work on a policy blitz.

So this week was not just about the bills passed, but also the ones held over. There are several fights to be had in the new year – and Labor wants some of these fights to heighten its contest with the Coalition or the Greens.

Labor could have tried to rush through its tax credits for miners who dig up critical minerals like lithium for renewables and high-tech devices, but it has held this over in a bid to shame the Coalition in seats in Western Australia and other regions with a mining vote.

The government can also bring back a bill to offer more fee-free TAFE places, something it sees as a vote-winner.

The more complicated scenario is with the Nature Positive package, which would set up Environment Protection Australia. Albanese badly wants the Greens to back down on their demands for a tougher regime to stop big projects, even though Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek came very close to a compromise.

By holding out on Nature Positive, Albanese risks a backlash from Labor supporters who want to protect the environment. At the same time, he cannot risk losing seats in Western Australia or Queensland if voters blame him for caving to the Greens. The longer the debate, the bigger the fracture in the Labor base.

This week has reset the terms of the political argument. But all sides know it is just the start of a bigger contest to come.

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