‘Three natural disaster events in one’: Northern NSW braces for Cyclone Alfred

Residents in low-lying parts of north-east NSW are being urged to act now as they brace for “three natural disaster events in one” when Tropical Cyclone Alfred makes landfall on Friday.

More than 120 schools in the north have been closed, evacuation centres have been established and flights have been cancelled, with recovery planning for the looming destruction under way.

Alfred, which was sitting 365 kilometres east of Brisbane and 340 kilometres north-east of Gold Coast on Wednesday night and is moving at 7 kilometres per hour, is expected to make landfall as a category 2 storm near the Queensland capital about 7pm on Friday.

It is forecast to bring up to 800 millimetres of rain over four days in parts of north-east NSW. The weather bureau has warned the system could become a “low end” category 3 before making landfall, but was likely to remain as a category 2.

NSW SES has advised residents of northern NSW with a flood evacuation warning in the late hours of Wednesday night as Alfred continues to loom.

The warnings extend to Ballina, Tweed Heads, South Golden Beach, Pottsville and Hastings Point. “You should monitor the situation and prepare to evacuate so that you can safely evacuate when instructed to do so by NSW SES,” they said in a statement.

“Wherever possible, you should prepare to stay with family or friends, or make other accommodation arrangement. If you remain in the area, you may become trapped without power, water and other essential services. It may be too dangerous for NSW SES to rescue you.”

Several evacuation centres have been set up in the north-east and will be operating from 4pm Wednesday.

Combined with increasing winds in the Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast regions on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, and heavy rainfall peaking on Thursday night and Friday morning, residents are facing a “deteriorating weather situation”, the weather bureau’s Jane Golding said.

“We are dealing with three natural disaster events in one,” NSW SES Commissioner Mike Wassing said on Wednesday morning, adding NSW had not experienced a similar situation since Tropical Cyclone Nancy hit in 1990.

Wassing said winds of up to 100km/h and gusts “far in excess of that” would most likely bring down power lines and trees and restrict road access.

“We’re already starting to feel the early impacts of those winds, but the worst-case scenario is we start to really feel that in terms of Thursday afternoon and into Thursday evening as the tropical cyclone crosses into Queensland. Again, what that means is that if people feel like they are in unsafe locations, now is the time to relocate,” Wassing said.

“I want people to act now, relocate now, before those circumstances are occurring. This is not just a rain event, this is a wind event, multiple wind events and then a potential flash flood and flooding event so now is the time to act. By Thursday afternoon and into Thursday evening, it is too late.”

Hundreds of additional SES personnel have been deployed to the Northern Rivers and the Mid North Coast, as well as communication equipment, aviation resources and specialist vehicles. More than 100,000 sandbags were available for those who needed to protect their properties, Wassing said.

Flood watch alerts have been in place since Monday for the Northern Rivers, a region devastated by floods in 2022, and the Mid North Coast.

Offshore waves as big as 10 metres have been recorded east of Coffs Harbour, Golding said.

“This is a very dangerous weather situation and we’re just urging everyone to please keep up to date and heed the advice of emergency services,” Golding said.

The NSW government has closed 121 schools in northern NSW for the rest of the week, an Education Department spokesperson said.

In Lismore, confirmed closures for schools, medical centres, courthouses, law firms, public transport services, city council on Thursday will take place. Hospitals, ambulance, police and fire stations are still open.

Minns hoped the impacts on Lismore would be less than the devastating 2022 floods, but was “planning for the worst and hoping for the best”.

Supermarket shelves in the Northern Rivers have been stripped since the cyclone warnings were issued, with Minns urging people not to panic buy.

All Qantas and Jetstar flights to Ballina on Wednesday have been cancelled until at least midnight Thursday, a Qantas Group spokesperson said.

Flights to and from Coffs Harbour will be suspended from midnight Wednesday until at least midday Thursday, while flights to and from the Gold Coast will be suspended for 24 hours from 4pm on Wednesday.

Flights to and from Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast were expected to continue as scheduled as of Wednesday afternoon.

Lismore Mayor Steve Krieg said the community, which is still rebuilding after the record flooding in 2022, was facing the “great unknown” of how badly hit the city would be.

Lismore Mayor Steve Krieg, pictured in 2022, said the community was facing the “great unknown” of how much damage would occur.Credit: Elise Derwin

Krieg, who lost his home and business in those floods, said a disaster as bad as 2022 would be demoralising.

“That would break many, many people,” he said. “It would be hard to get up and keep going after that.

“There’s a lot of very fragile people in Lismore and in the region.”

NSW Reconstruction Authority chief executive Mal Lanyon said the authority was “pre-planning for recovery even before we go into a response phase” in the Northern Rivers.

“We will stand alongside you. We understand the trauma of that previous event. I want to make it very clear that we have listened to the messages, and we have learnt from 2022, and we understand that speed to recovery is essential for the community,” he said.

Lanyon said his thoughts were “very much with the people of the Northern Rivers”.

Isolated downpours from Wednesday could bring as much as 800 millimetres of rain in far north-east NSW over several days, while 400 to 600 millimetres is likely in areas 50 to 100 kilometres south of the Queensland border.

Widespread heavy rainfall of up to 400 millimetres is expected to fall between Coffs Harbour and the Queensland border. The heaviest rainfall is expected south of where Alfred makes landfall.

Friday is likely to see the heaviest of the rain before Alfred travels inland, where between 25 and 100 millimetres of rain is expected over the weekend as the system weakens into a tropical low. Wind gusts of up to 120km/h are expected in some parts of north-east NSW.

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