Ministers must make hard decisions on the NDIS to guarantee its future for those who need it most

The latest quarterly health check on the National Disability Insurance Scheme makes for sobering reading, and should act as a much-needed wake-up call for political leaders who must do more to ensure the scheme remains financially sustainable for those who rely on it most.

A key legacy of Julia Gillard’s time as prime minister, the NDIS has become as much a part of our economic framework as it is a powerful demonstration of Australia’s underlying egalitarian spirit. It is a huge employer – the scheme is responsible for directly or indirectly supporting as many as 500,000 full-time or part-time jobs – and costs the budget some $48 billion a year.

The NDIS costs the budget about $48 billion a year.

The annual cost is projected to reach $92.7 billion by the 2033/24 financial year – a huge figure which, without recent work to crack down on fraud and reduce spending on some questionable support programs, was forecast to be even worse. When the NDIS was launched in 2013 it was thought the scheme would grow at a peak of just 4 per cent per year.

The latest report does include some bright spots: the rate of annual spending growth is sitting at 10.6 per cent – down from the forecast 12 per cent. While continued growth at that scale is still entirely unsustainable, the lower-than-projected result is good news.

But there are also some alarming new statistics our nation must grapple with.

The first is the sheer number of people still joining the scheme despite recent attempts to curb growth. As of March, some 717,000 people now have approved NDIS participation plans – up from 461,000 just four years ago.

Second and perhaps of even greater concern is the revelation by the Herald’s political correspondent Natassia Chrysanthos that 10 per cent of five- to seven-year-old children now rely on the NDIS for support, up from 8 per cent two years ago.

Professor Andrew Whitehouse, an autism expert who also advises the government on school funding, said he was not surprised the number of children joining the scheme had continued to grow, with under-15s now making up 70 per cent of new participants.

“In the absence of reform, the numbers of kids that require support and will be attracted to the NDIS as a mechanism for support will continue to grow,” he warned.

As Chrysanthos reports, families of young children have continued flocking to the NDIS since a major review called for an overhaul of how disability support should be provided 18 months ago. Yet progress has been glacially slow on a new disability system, called “foundational supports”.

State and federal disability ministers are yet to resolve how they will delineate funding and responsibility for the new system, meaning it will not begin its phased launch by the July 1 deadline. Put simply, they need to get their act together and fix this mess.

The Herald is a strong supporter of the NDIS. But hard decisions must be made to guarantee not just the scheme’s financial sustainability, but the community’s continued support for its ongoing place in our nation.

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