‘Cut admissions in 2026’: The new rules shaking up university entry

Year 12 school leavers could face increased difficulty securing a spot at university from next year with at least one institution expected to cut admissions in response to a major funding overhaul.

The government is moving to exert greater control over the allocation of places, giving each university its own “managed growth target” which is effectively a cap on domestic admissions from 2027.

Analysts say that universities are poised to cut admissions due to the changes.Credit: Oscar Colman

Analysts expect that universities which are significantly over-enrolled will cut admissions from as early as next year in a bid to bring enrolments down in preparation for the new policy.

Education Minister Jason Clare said the new policy is moving to a managed system rather than a previous “Hunger Games” approach, with an extra 9500 Commonwealth supported places given to institutions next year.

“More Australians next year will start a university degree than ever before,” he said.

“This is 4.1 per cent growth year-on-year … And it will be even more the year after that, and the year after that.”

Monash University higher education analyst Andrew Norton said the push to limit institutions from over-enrolling students was a significant change to the tertiary system.

Higher education analyst Andrew Norton from Monash Business School.Credit: Renee Nowytarger

“The minister is correct in saying they’re going to fully fund more places, but incorrect in saying there will be more in total,” he said.

He said the change would not necessarily result in more students at university because students who were rejected from one institution would not necessarily enrol in another one.

“Some unis will reduce their intake in 2026 to make sure their total number of Commonwealth supported places comes under the new cap,” he said.

Charles Sturt University’s deputy vice chancellor (academic), Professor Graham Brown, said while the minister spoke about more Commonwealth supported places, the new policy effectively prevented his institution enrolling more students.

“Under current law, universities can enrol Commonwealth-supported students beyond their funding cap, receiving only the student contribution. The 9500 places act as a ceiling, not a gateway,” he said.

A Commonwealth supported place is a university spot partly subsidised by the Australian government through the Commonwealth Grant Scheme. The student pays only the remaining portion, called the student contribution, and can defer that amount through a HECS loan.

“We are seeing increasing demand for our courses, yet in order to comply with the [Australian Tertiary Education Commission] cap, we will have to cut admissions in 2026 and turn away students who want to study with us,” Brown said.

“We’re having to make concrete decisions literally now about how many students to admit to which courses in 2026 without any sight of the legislation or exact funding rules that will fund them from 2027 onwards.”

The number of year 12 leavers applying for a NSW university jumped in the past 12 months, from 46,863 last year to 48,822 in 2025. In Victoria, 53,178 school-leavers have applied for uni this year.

A University of Sydney spokesperson said in 2024 it enrolled 4 per cent more than their allocated Commonwealth-funded places but, unlike Charles Sturt, did not expect to have to cut enrolments.

“Though figures for this year are not yet finalised, domestic demand has been strong across the sector and we expect to remain over-enrolled,” the spokesperson said.

For the new funding system, transition arrangements are being put in place where currently over-enrolled universities will have a “glide-path” agreed with newly formed Australian Tertiary Education Commission. This will enable universities to continue to retain student contributions for over-enrolled students beyond a buffer between 2 and 5 per cent.

The government says a transitional funding floor guarantee will apply in 2026 while a funding floor for most universities will remain in place until 2031, guaranteeing 97.5 per cent of Commonwealth Grant Scheme funding from the previous year.

The government has said it wanted 80 per cent of the workforce to have a tertiary qualification by 2050, up from around 60 per cent today.

However, the Group of Eight, which represents the country’s research-intensive universities, last year said a cap on students would limit growth in tertiary attainment.

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