Urgent investment is needed to support new sources of affordable electricity in the coming decade when 90 per cent of coal-fired generation will cease.
The latest modelling, released by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) on Friday, shows coal power plants are closing earlier than planned and people are electrifying their homes at a faster rate.
Upgraded power systems will be capable of running at times entirely on renewable energy, according to system planning that also relies on an ongoing role for gas. But businesses and industry are expected to need more energy not less as they double their grid electricity consumption.
Grassroots organisation Rewiring Australia urged AEMO to shift the focus of energy planning to electrification and rooftop solar as these will help reduce the cost of energy even as large renewable projects suffer from delays.
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Co-founder Saul Griffith said AEMO was “yet to catch up with the rooftop revolution” led by millions of Australian households.
“Household energy should be seen as a resource, not a risk and the market redesigned to help consumers reduce bills from their solar, batteries and EVs, which is what these technologies can do,” Dr Griffith said.
An Integrated System Plan (ISP) is prepared every two years and the latest draft reflects a change of federal government and a slew of announcements on rewiring the nation and support for new energy assets.
But there are fears that Australia is falling behind on required investment, hampered by red tape, community uncertainty and fierce competition for equipment and workers amid a global push to replace fossil fuel-fired networks.
The demand for energy sector workers is forecast to grow from 40,000 people in 2023 to a peak of over 70,000 by 2050. This workforce is needed across every discipline, not just engineering.
The possibility that replacement generation is not available when coal plants retire is “real and growing, and a risk that must be avoided,” the AEMO report said.
The sooner renewables and energy storage are connected, the more secure the energy transition will be.
“We need a reliable grid that supports that changing energy profile,” Energy Minister Chris Bowen said.
AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman said the draft plan for 2024 highlights the “urgency for investment” to ensure Australians have access to safe, reliable and affordable energy.
“Gaining the trust of regional and rural communities is essential to avoid the risk of essential infrastructure not being built before coal-fired generators close,” he said.
AAP