By Daniella White
Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff will seek to re-form government with an increased primary vote as Labor stares down the barrel of its worst result in the state’s history in an election dominated by a divisive debate over a new AFL stadium.
But a 3.3 per cent boost to the Liberal Party’s vote will likely not be enough for the party to lead a majority, and it remains possible for Labor to form a minority government.
Tasmanian Liberal leader Jeremy Rockliff called an early election after he lost a no-confidence moton in parliament.Credit: AAPIMAGE
With 39 per cent of the primary vote, the Liberal Party is set to fall short of forming a government in its own right and may be forced to negotiate with a largely left-leaning crossbench.
Rockliff said the result was a re-endorsement of the Liberal government and urged Tasmanian MPs to “respect the will of the people”, in a veiled reference to the dysfunctional Parliament which saw him lose a no-confidence vote brought on by Labor that led to the election.
Speaking in the election tally room in Hobart just after 9.30pm, after walking out to jubilant cheers of “Rocky, Rocky”, Rockliff said he would visit the state’s governor, Barbara Baker, and ask her to recommission his government “so we can get on with the job for Tasmania”.
“A little over six weeks ago, the leader of the Opposition forced this unnecessary election on the Tasmanian people by moving a vote of no confidence,” Rockliff said.
Miranda Bennett, Ulrike Loofs Samorzewski and Grace Fridheim in the Tasmanian election tally room in Hobart on Saturday night.Credit: Peter Mathew
“Well tonight, the people of Tasmania in return have said that they have no confidence in the Labor Party to form government.”
With counting continuing late on Saturday night, Labor faced a 2.9 per cent swing against it, in a sign voters have punished the party for triggering an early poll by bringing the no-confidence motion which the Greens and some independents supported.
ABC election analyst Casey Briggs said it amounted to the party’s worst vote in Tasmanian history at just 25.8 per cent of the primary vote as of 10pm.
Speaking at the tally room on Saturday night, Labor leader Dean Winter did not concede but also would not reveal whether he will seek to work with the Greens.
But he said whoever forms government will have to form a “new approach to politics in the state” and show a willingness to work together.
Winter noted the parliament would likely return a majority of progressive MPs.
“Tonight, the Tasmanian people have spoken, and they have delivered another hung parliament and, with it, a resounding message that they want their politicians to work together more collaboratively. They aren’t happy with politics as usual, and they want to see things done differently,” he said.
Saturday’s snap poll, the second in under two years, was called after Rockliff lost a no-confidence-motion brought on by Labor, which criticised his budget management and the bungled roll-out of Spirit of Tasmania ferries. Rockliff chose to call an election instead of resigning.
Travis Price and his dad James Price support the proposed stadium in Hobart.Credit: Peter Mathew
Labor has ruled out doing a deal with The Greens to form government, but has left the door open to accepting supply and confidence from the minor party.
The party is predicted to hold either nine or 10 seats in the new parliament, with the Liberals remaining on at least 14. Eighteen seats are needed for a majority.
Speaking just after 10pm on Saturday night, Tasmanian Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff said Winter needed to have a conversation about the possibility of forming government with the Greens, despite his previous refusals to do so.
“There are differences, but the Greens and Labor have a lot in common too. We are ready. We are ready to work collaboratively in the best interest of Tasmanians and, Dean, I hope you put them first this time too,” she said.
The stadium plan has become the main issue for footy-mad TasmaniaCredit: Peter Mathew
The early election has delayed a key vote around the proposed $945 million Macquarie Point Stadium in Hobart and brought fierce anti- and pro-stadium sentiment to the forefront of the campaign.
The stadium project – an AFL condition of a new Tasmanian team, The Devils – is backed by Labor and Liberals but opposed by the Greens and most independents.
For many, like Hobart resident Travis Price, the proposed stadium and the prospect of a Tasmanian AFL team have ignited a newfound interest in politics.
“The team and the stadium have probably been the first major thing that’s got me to actually follow along with the politicians and what’s important for the state,” Price said on Saturday at an election-day rally in support of the stadium.
He said he voted Liberal, seeing the party as the strongest advocates for the stadium’s completion.
His dad, James Price, said he was a rusted-on Labor voter. But this election, he instead voted Liberal and blames Labor for bringing about the election and putting the stadium plan in jeopardy.
“They’ve already spent a lot of money on the stadium, we can’t afford to have Labor come in with Greens or independents who don’t want a stadium,” he said.
However, not all football fans share the Prices’ enthusiasm for the current proposal. Sharyn White, while keen for Tasmania to have a stadium, believes the deal demanded by the AFL is unfair on the state. She hopes independents emerge as the big winners on election night.
Sharyn White loves football, but she doesn’t like the stadium project.Credit: Peter Mathew
“Our politicians didn’t negotiate us a good deal,” White said. “We need reasonable people who listen to expert advice.” She was frustrated that the stadium had dominated Tasmanian politics, overshadowing critical issues such as the lack of housing infrastructure, health reform, and education.
In 2023, Tasmania was granted a licence for its own AFL team, contingent on the construction of a new 23,000-seat roofed stadium. But the no stadium, no team ultimatum has since been embroiled in political turmoil, with recent polling showing roughly 60 per cent of Tasmanians oppose the contentious development.
Both Labor and the Liberals back the stadium, but with independents and anti-stadium Greens likely to play a key role in the event of a hung parliament, there is the possibility they will demand the stadium plans be dropped or altered.
Just hours after polls opened, more than a thousand pro-stadium footy fans made their views heard, marching to North Hobart Oval.
Stadium fans Hudson, Noah and Jack with Jack’s dad Aaron Hilder at the start of a march on Saturday in support of Hobart’s proposed AFL stadium.Credit: Peter Mathew
Aaron Hilder attended with his family and said a stadium would be a game changer for everyone in the state and the loud opposition was frustrating.
“It’s so close, but we need to get it over the line,” he said.
High-profile independent Kristie Johnston said the stadium project was a key “filter question” for voters.
“We can’t afford it, we don’t need it, and it doesn’t fit on the site,” she told this masthead.
Independent candidate for Clark Kristie Johnston opposes the stadium plan.Credit: Peter Mathew
“As soon as I say no [to the stadium] they are engaged and wanting to know more about what else I stand for in terms of health, housing and education.
“So it’s not necessarily a referendum on the stadium, but it’s symbolic of the underlying issues about the future of the state.”
Johnston accused the AFL of treating Tasmania with “great disdain” and said the next parliament must “stand firm … and demand a team, but not be dictated by the AFL in terms of what the conditions for that are”.
For many Tasmanians, the debate over the proposed stadium became a reflection of their broader values.
As she cast her vote at a polling station on Saturday, Hobart resident Heidi Mirtl said the highly visible debate had taken on profound significance.
“It is the thing that becomes the centrepiece around what underpins the values people hold when they vote,” she said. Mirtl, who believes the state cannot afford the project, cited the Greens’ opposition to the stadium as a key reason for her vote, arguing the priority must be the “desperate need for housing and addressing poverty”.
Heidi Mirtl, with her son Em, says Tasmania can’t afford the stadium project.Credit: Peter Mathew
Influential pro-stadium independent David O’Byrne, a former Labor leader, said the prospect of a local AFL team had made politics “white-hot” and had motivated a new cohort of voters.
“The issue crosses ideological lines,” O’Byrne said. “There is a group that is motivated to vote strategically in support of something they feel strongly about, which is essentially delivering a Tasmanian football club that we have wanted for a generation.”
Tasmania, along with the ACT, uses the Hare-Clark electoral system in the lower house. A form of proportional representation, it was recently expanded so that seven MPs, instead of five, are elected from each of the state’s five electorates. This lowers the quota of votes needed to win a seat, boosting the prospects of minor parties and independents.
O’Byrne, who said Labor was being blamed by many voters for causing an unnecessary election, pledged to work constructively with whoever can form government if he was re-elected.
“I won’t dangle that as a threat,” he said. “Part of the problem is you’ve had a couple of independents who provided that supply and confidence last time but, all of a sudden, made everything a test of the relationship and therefore [the government] collapsed.”
O’Byrne resigned from Labor after failing to win preselection for the 2024 election following an internal investigation into a sexual harassment allegation from 10 years prior. The investigation found O’Byrne’s behaviour was “inappropriate and wrong” but did not constitute sexual harassment. He was re-elected in 2024 with the highest primary vote of any independent candidate.
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