Canberra's February home values dip with signs of a nervous nation

Canberra home values dipped into negative territory during February, with one of Australia’s leading analysts predicting property values will flatline across the territory in 2019.

February data released by independent analytics firm CoreLogic has revealed Canberra house values fell by the smallest of margins, 0.1 per cent, in February, while unit prices dropped 0.4 per cent.

Canberra property values are expected to flatline in 2019, according to CoreLogic.Credit: Rob Homer

Using a database which tracks transaction data for every home sale in every state and territory, the report put Canberra’s median house value at $665,701, down from $668,469 one month ago.

Canberra’s median unit value in February was $432,389, having fallen from $437,271 in January.

Corelogic’s head of research, Cameron Kushner, said the combination of the impending federal election, a tightening of credit conditions, the housing market slowing elsewhere around the country and a general public sentiment running against housing investment have all contributed to a less-than-optimistic outlook for the ACT.

"The [national] decline has been driven out of Sydney and Melbourne, but we're now seeing that filter into Canberra," he said.

Mr Kushner observed that the Canberra unit market, in particular, could come under significant pressure in the months ahead.

“We have never seen as many unit and apartment approvals going though in Canberra as we have in the past few years, with completion due on these in the next 12 months," he said.

"If values soften even further, then it will start to become quite challenging.

“What will be interesting to watch is the sentiment of the offshore buyers - those investors who put down unit deposits two or three years ago and are now coming up for settlement. If the market softens quickly, that can have a major knock-on effect.”

He said Canberra was not in an oversupply situation yet but “the potential for it certainly exists”.

Canberra value growth retreated into negative territory in four months last year: December (-0.1%), October (-0.1%), May (-0.3%) and January (-0.4%).

Every capital city bar Hobart reported a fall in housing values through February, while regional areas such as NSW's southern highlands and the West Australian wheatbelt are now facing substantial declines.

Credit and housing finance data from the Reserve Bank and the Australian Bureau of Statistics  have showed a consistent reduction in credit flows and mortgage activity, resulting in a slowdown of investment.

UBS economist George Tharenou said home sales had now "collapsed" to a 21-year low, while the turnover rate, which is sales divided by available stock, dropped to a record low.

But some analysts argue there are some positive signs both in the house-price data and recent auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne.

Commonwealth Bank economist Gareth Aird said consumer confidence had not yet been affected by the fall in house prices while the jobs market remained strong.

"In that context, if employment growth remains decent, as the leading indicators continue to indicate, households can remain reasonably upbeat even if dwelling prices continue to deflate," he said.

"After all, a third of households rent. And for would‑be buyers, falling dwelling prices are a positive."

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe is due to give a speech next week on the link between the housing market and the economy.

• with Shane Wright