Trump is already casting Iran’s retaliation as a sign of peace. It offers both sides an ‘off ramp’

Iran’s missile attack on a US air base in Qatar was telegraphed well in advance, suggesting Tehran intended a symbolic show of force while offering a way to de-escalate after US airstrikes over the weekend.

In a social media post on Monday afternoon, US President Donald Trump called the strike a “very weak response” and thanked Iran “for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured.”

“Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same” Trump said. “IT’S TIME FOR PEACE,” he added in a subsequent post.

Oil prices slumped in the wake of Iran’s attack on the US base, with West Texas Intermediate plummeting by more than 6 per cent to trade below $70 a barrel. That reflected investor sentiment that the Iranian strikes were less severe than feared and supplies from the Middle East won’t be disrupted.

The assault, which involved short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, early on Tuesday AEST targeted the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which officials said had been largely evacuated.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said the number of missiles fired matched the number of bombs dropped by the US on the Islamic Republic days before and the strike “poses no danger” to Qatar, which it called “our friendly and brotherly country”.

One official with knowledge of Western intelligence assessments said the attack was a typical example of an “off-ramp” escalation and warned it was more difficult to understand whether – and at what point – Israel would stop its own military activities in the region. There was no immediate response from Israel to Trump’s posts late Monday.

“It feels choreographed and intentional,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East. “The Iranians get to tell their population they struck a mighty blow against the US, even if they didn’t, and Trump has the room now to decide not to retaliate.”

The Iranian strategy bore the hallmarks of the two strikes it launched against Israel last year – Tehran’s first-ever direct attacks on its long-time enemy. Those were meant to look overwhelming but caused little damage. And in 2020, after Trump ordered a drone strike killing a top Iranian general during his first term, Iran responded with a missile barrage on a US-managed airbase in northern Iraq that resulted in no fatalities.

Trump had threatened “far greater” attacks if Iran didn’t respond peacefully to the US bombing over the weekend.

Trump visited Al Udeid last month as part of a larger tour of the region, giving a campaign-style speech to troops there. Many staff and a large number of military aircraft were later evacuated in anticipation of a possible Iranian strike.

One unknown is how the strike will factor into the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, which touched off with Israeli strikes across the country more than a week ago.

Israel hit targets including airports, a prison, and an internal-security headquarters run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Monday, and targeted a fresh assault on Iran’s Fordow nuclear site. Iran responded with missile attacks of its own.

In the aftermath of the US strikes against Iranian nuclear sites, US officials had sought to portray Trump’s attack as devastating but limited. They said the US wouldn’t put boots on the ground and the strikes were aimed at Iran’s nuclear program, not the country more broadly.

“Iran was very careful, measured in their response,” former Central Command Commander Frank McKenzie said in an interview. “They tried to do as little as they could do and get away with a sense of honour.”

Bloomberg

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