The ‘huge problem’ that could stop Iran hitting the US where it hurts

Washington: Iran had vowed to retaliate against American bases in the region even before the United States attacked its nuclear sites, and US intelligence agencies have long warned that the military should prepare for such a response.

While Iran will probably attempt a fierce barrage, US and Israeli officials said before the attacks on Saturday night (Sunday AEST) that Israel’s strikes in recent days had severely damaged Iran’s ability to mount attacks, wiping out launchers and damaging military bases.

In more than a week of fighting before the US attacks, the Israeli air force struck Iranian missile launchers and launch teams, and Iran depleted its stockpile of medium-range missiles, according to US and Israeli officials.

Iranian missiles and a launcher during a joint army and the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard manoeuvre in 2021.Credit: AP

In an address from the White House on Saturday, US President Donald Trump warned Iran against further actions and demanded that Tehran “make peace”.

“There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days,” Trump said. “But if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill.”

Iran could ignore Trump’s comments and deploy its remaining medium-range missiles, or its short-range weapons and cruise missiles, which could be used to threaten US bases in the Middle East, according to experts.

Nicholas Carl, who studies Iran for the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, said those weapons had too short a range to be directly fired against Israel. But a number of US bases are within range.

In addition to cruise missiles and rockets, Iran also has an ample supply of attack drones, which could be particularly effective if they were smuggled to Shiite militias in Iraq and fired at US bases there, US officials said. The Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen, which reached a ceasefire agreement with the United States last month, could resume its attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.

“Iran has many ways of imposing pressure on the West and the international community writ large,” Carl said in an interview before the strike on the three nuclear sites.

US officials said Iran would probably use its bases in the southern part of the country to launch missile attacks on US bases in the Persian Gulf.

The fighting has strained Israel’s supply of missile interceptors and Iran’s capacity to attack.

When the war began, Iran had some 2000 long and mid-range weapons, one of the largest collections in the region, according to Israeli officials. US officials have generally accepted that estimate. It is not clear how much of Iran’s arsenal remains. The country has fired off hundreds of missiles and Israel has damaged sites where they are stored.

Israel’s strikes on missile launchers have been even more significant, limiting Iran’s ability to fire missiles and large-scale barrages, US officials and outside experts said. Israel’s campaign has also hurt Iran’s ability to co-ordinate attacks, according to experts and Israeli officials.

US bases in the Middle East are protected by missile defences, and Iran would probably have to fire a large co-ordinated barrage of missiles to penetrate them.

Carl said Iran’s capacity to fire large numbers of missiles was increasingly limited. At least half of Iran’s launchers had been destroyed.

“As you begin to whittle away at the launchers, the Iranian ability to summon these large volumes of missile fire is diminished,” Carl said. “And that is a huge problem for Iran.”

The Israeli attacks have forced Iran to change tactics and operations. Carl said that in response to Israel’s strikes on missile crews preparing to launch weapons, Iran appeared to be trying to launch missiles more quickly.

“The Iranians appear to be accelerating their launch timeline,” Carl said. “That means it is harder to co-ordinate large-scale attacks across the country.”

Where are Iran’s missiles, and can they hit US military bases?

Iran’s missile bases are typically built in mountain valleys and have tunnels and bunkers where transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) and missiles are stored, according to military analyst group Janes. 

Experts say Israel has badly damaged a number of Iranian bases, as well as production facilities. Critically, it has also destroyed up to half of Iran’s long-range surface-to-surface missile launchers.

According to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Israel has struck 12 missile sites, including Kermanshah, Bid Kaneh, Tabriz, Shiraz, Khorramabad and Piranshahr, as well as a military airport.

Maxar satellite imagery from June 15 showed a base just to the east of Kermanshah was heavily hit, Janes reported, although there was less damage to other bases and some remained intact.

Overnight, Israel hit a strategic missile base in Yazd Province - where long-range Khorramshahr ballistic missiles were reportedly kept in underground tunnels - and struck a facility near Shahroud City where missile fuel was made, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

Given the risk of escalation if Iran strikes US bases in the region, security experts told CFR that Tehran could resort to terrorist or cyber attacks. Its parliament has also endorsed closing the Strait of Hormuz. 

Key weaknesses in Iran’s arsenal were revealed in attacks on Israel last year. Israeli and US air defence proved adept at intercepting missiles. Iranian targeting is imperfect, and many missiles miss their targets. Quality control problems have led to significant numbers of malfunctions.

To overcome those problems, Iran needs to be able to fire large numbers of missiles simultaneously. But as long as Israeli pressure on launch sites continues, experts say, Iran will struggle to fire large barrages, which could limit its ability to retaliate against US bases.

US missile defences – ranging from Patriot batteries to Aegis destroyers – have the capacity to defend military bases in the region. Those defences will be more effective against small barrages of weapons.

Iranian officials have said that US bases in Iraq would probably be their first targets, either with a direct missile strike or by rockets or drones fired by pro-Iran militia. Iran may not want to strike US bases in Arab countries, but that calculation would probably change after the US attacks on Iran’s underground Fordow nuclear site, and other sites in Natanz and Isfahan, US officials said.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

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