The Greens bet on Gaza and may have lost the House

The party of protest has just discovered it protested far too much.

Greens leader Adam Bandt has suffered a devastating verdict from voters after victories at five elections since he made history for his party by seizing the seat of Melbourne from Labor in 2010.

Greens leader Adam Bandt.Credit: Getty

While Bandt has not conceded defeat, he is losing steadily as more votes are counted. It would be a miracle if he were saved by the late discovery of hordes of votes in his favour. The most likely outcome will be a concession speech.

Bandt has been a strong advocate for the environment, social justice and action on Gaza. Nobody can doubt his passion for the Greens’ cause and his energy in parliament. But there are consequences for every party when they misjudge the Australian electorate.

Four factors worked against Bandt and his party at this election. The first was entirely outside their control. The Australian Electoral Commission set new borders for Victorian seats including Melbourne, which meant the Green-tinged community of North Carlton was moved out of the seat and the Liberal-tinged voters of South Yarra were moved in.

This set a big challenge for Bandt in holding support in an electorate that was less loyal to the left.

The second factor was only partly outside the Greens’ control: the Liberal primary vote shrank a little, while the Labor primary vote surged. The failure of Peter Dutton as opposition leader, and the sheer discipline of Anthony Albanese as prime minister, delivered a new reality for the Greens.

The dynamic was clear in the vote count. Officials assumed Melbourne would end up as a two-party contest between the Greens and the Liberals. It ended up a fight between Labor and the Greens instead. And more than three quarters of the voters sent their preferences to Labor, not the Greens.

It is totally inadequate for the Greens to argue, as they will, that Liberal and One Nation preferences delivered victory for Labor. The parties do not fill out the ballot papers – the voters do. More people in Melbourne wanted their preferences to go to Labor.

A third factor was all about the Greens because it was about their policies. The party campaigned for dental services to be included in Medicare, something that resonates with many Australians. There was no equivalent crusade on the environment, usually the winning argument for the party. And there were big questions for three years about whether the party was being too obstructive in parliament.

The Greens shared responsibility for failing to pass the law to set up Environment Protection Australia, the “nature positive” reform sought by Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek. The party also stymied the Labor agenda on housing, delaying the funding for new homes. The election results are a verdict on that approach.

Finally, the Greens spent much of the last term campaigning furiously on the war in Gaza. This was personal: Bandt claimed in parliament that Albanese and Dutton were complicit in genocide. This was hyperbolic and offensive.

At the same time, the Greens backed public protests that became platforms for antisemitism. They washed their hands of tactics that led to blockades against Labor MPs. The protests continued every week in Melbourne, for instance, and public opinion was strongly against them.

Credit: Matt Golding

Foreign Minister Penny Wong summed up the problem earlier this week.

“I think Australians rejected the politics of conflict and the politics of grievance,” she said of the election result. “And, unfortunately, Adam Bandt in some ways is quite like Peter Dutton. It’s the same conflict … sometimes quite aggressive, and the same politics of protest and grievance.”

Wong identified a fundamental problem for the Greens. Young voters may be drawn to its exaggerated rhetoric and confected conflict, but voters tend to drop the party as they age.

All politicians go too far at times, but Dutton and Bandt went too far on similar issues in different ways.

Dutton seized on the discovery of explosives in a Sydney caravan to claim Albanese was guilty of a national security disaster. The incident turned out to be a criminal plot, not a terrorist attack.

Bandt seized on the war in Gaza to accuse Albanese of knowingly aiding Israel in a genocide. There was no such support for genocide; the Australian government wants a ceasefire and a two-state solution. Most importantly, most Australians knew their government did not have the power to stop the war.

The Greens leader was eyeless in Gaza, blind to the danger for him and his party.

The election results are not final, and counting continues in Melbourne. There may be a miracle recovery for Bandt, but there is certainly a lesson from voters.

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