Why Albanese and Dutton’s path to government heads west this election

Turn a corner in Western Australia right now and you’ll find some of the most fascinating political battles in the country raging ahead of the May 3 election.

In Bullwinkel, on Perth’s eastern fringe and the nation’s newest seat, Liberal Matt Moran’s blue vinyl-wrapped van vies for voter eyeballs. Metres away, the imposing old Nissan Patrol of his supposed political ally, the Nationals’ Mia Davies, does the same.

About 18 kilometres west, wealthy progressives and old-money Liberals are locking horns in Curtin, whose constituents include billionaires Kerry Stokes, Gina Rinehart and Andrew Forrest. Here, former Uber executive Tom White is throwing the kitchen sink at wresting back the seat previously held by Liberal blue blood Julie Bishop from teal independent Kate Chaney.

Pre-poll parking: Former WA Nationals leader Mia Davies is taking on the Liberals’ former Afghanistan veteran Matt Moran in the federal seat of Bullwinkel.Credit: Colin Murty

These two contrasting seats showcase the breadth of issues in Western Australia, but both are vital to the major parties’ hopes of governing after May 3. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s decision to converge on Perth this weekend ahead of their respective campaign launches underscores the state’s importance.

“I’m back here again in WA because, guess what, WA is not just still important,” Albanese said in Perth on Saturday. “It’s more important than ever, given the changes in the economy and the opportunity that is here in WA.”

Dutton did not disagree. “We know that our economy doesn’t work without a really strong economy here in Western Australia, and Anthony Albanese is a risk,” he said less than 10 kilometres away in the electorate of Tangney.

Labor’s path to majority or minority government rests on how much of its COVID-era 10.5 per cent swing it can defend in the state. The Coalition’s shot at returning to government relies on wins in Curtin, Bullwinkel and claiming Labor’s seats in metropolitan Perth: Pearce, Hasluck, Tangney and Swan.

Both parties are running WA-centric campaigns after Labor’s 2022 success, in which it springboarded off then-premier Mark McGowan, who scored a record win in the 2021 state election by casting then-prime minister Scott Morrison as anti-WA.

Dutton knows this, and on every trip west has been quick to point out “Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is no Mark McGowan”.

The Liberals continue to cast Albanese as anti-WA in the same fashion Labor did Morrison, highlighting controversies such as delays to Woodside’s North West Shelf gas project extension approval, his Nature Positive environmental reforms the Coalition claims could curb mining and a live sheep export ban that has infuriated farmers.

Labor is stylising its national campaign to WA tastes and will counter the Liberals’ negativity with a pro-WA pitch to voters after Albanese’s national campaign launch in Perth on Sunday.

One WA Labor strategist, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the party’s weekly and local focus-group sessions suggest the messaging in WA was “about right”.

“We’re pretty confident … we’re just going to keep doing it,” the strategist said.

The WA Liberals’ hopes took a dent in March when the party recorded its second-worst state election loss in its history, which poll analyst William Bowe attributes to lingering brand damage from the Morrison government’s abortive attempt to stop the state’s popular COVID border controls.

Bullwinkel voter Jason Boston at Old Mates Cafe in Kalamunda on Monday.Credit: Colin Murty

“It’s the party brands that matter and clearly the damage that the Coalition suffered in Western Australia from COVID hasn’t completely gone away ... it has probably been more persistent than I would have expected,” Bowe said.

The Bullwinkel stand-off

The quiet streets of Kalamunda belie the quaint bushy Perth Hills suburb’s importance to the nation’s political future.

It is the population centre of Bullwinkel, one of the most intriguing three-cornered contests in the country. Here, well-known former WA Nationals leader Davies is taking on local Labor councillor Trish Cook and the Liberals’ Matt Moran, whose CV includes Afghanistan war veteran, Liberal staffer and Walkley Award-winning journalist.

But Jason Boston, 56, is unimpressed with the well-credentialled candidates as he and many of his neighbours battle the cost-of-living crunch.

“My major issue? Politicians being honest. There’s no point in saying one thing and doing another,” Boston said as he enjoyed the peace at Old Mates Cafe in Kalamunda.

Bullwinkel is a Frankenstein-like stitching of six federal electorates across the Perth Hills and Wheatbelt region, which covers much of Davies’ former state seat.

Based on 2022 polling booth data, Labor notionally holds the seat with a 3.3 per cent margin, which gives Cook hope of making history as the first member for the new seat.

Liberal strategists believe they can build on results in the state election, when the party narrowly flipped the seat of Kalamunda – the only outer suburban seat they won.

But Davies and the Nationals are confident in the electorate’s Wheatbelt areas, where the party has good standing.

The closer to the city, the tougher Davies’ prospects become, but she has backed the Keep the Sheep campaign, which heavily targets metro areas where she needs to cut through. Moran has also backed the campaign.

The dynamic between Davies and Moran’s campaigns adds another layer of intrigue.

Typically, the Liberals and Nationals do not run viable candidates against each other, but that is the reality in Bullwinkel after the Nationals decided for the first time in WA to run candidates in metro seats.

The dynamic between the Moran and Davies campaigns adds another layer of intrigue in Bullwinkel.Credit: Colin Murty

The Coalition partners have to share campaign information, appear on the same press releases, and Davies has taken a spot behind Dutton, next to Moran, at the past two Bullwinkel-related press conferences.

Davies said she was unconcerned. “Competition is healthy,” she said.

“Giving people options. If they want to change the government, they’ve got two choices – one is the Nationals, who are a grassroots political organisation that put people and communities and practical, common-sense solutions ahead of politics.”

Moran is equally determined not to criticise his Coalition stablemate and rival. “There are some real local issues that I’m focusing on because that’s what people are concerned about, and that’s what they want me to fight for, so I’m focusing on my own campaign,” he said.

Curtin’s big-money showdown

Across the city, Curtin feels a world apart from Bullwinkel: there are no Nationals but there is plenty of money.

In the seat of wealth in WA, it is little surprise Chaney and White are running the most expensive campaigns in the state.

Curtin captures the Perth’s western suburbs, where the city’s most expensive properties are nestled between the Swan River and Indian Ocean. The electorate includes trendy inner-city suburbs such as Subiaco and affluent beachside suburbs City Beach and Scarborough.

Chaney swept in with the wave of teal independents in 2022 with a 29.5 per cent primary vote and strong preference flows from Greens and Labor voters, which helped her leapfrog Liberal Celia Hammond and scrape through by 1.3 per cent.

Chaney’s profile has increased since her shock win, but pressure is being applied by Seven West Media, the resources sector and farmers over issues such as live exports, her support for Nature Positive laws and her changing position on the North West Shelf extension. She has clarified she supports live exports and the North West Shelf extension but is not convinced Woodside needs its approval extended until 2070.

The teal vote was strong in Curtin state electorates last month, with new Liberal Basil Zempilas just scraping through over independent Lisa Thornton. Zempilas was later elected WA’s opposition leader following the Coalition’s election defeat.

Nationally, teal sources are worried Chaney is the most vulnerable of their group.

Since April last year, Chaney, a granddaughter of former Menzies government minister Fred Chaney Sr and daughter of former Woodside and current Wesfarmers chair Michael Chaney, has received $1.2 million in donations, including $333,000 from teal funding group Climate 200.

White’s donation totals are not public, but campaign sources said he has been a successful fundraiser and has a sizeable war chest.

In the past 90 days, Chaney has spent $188,000 on Facebook advertising. More than $100,000 of that was spent in the past month alone – the 12th highest political advertising spend on the platform in Australia and the highest individual MP spend.

Comparatively, White has spent only $22,000 on Facebook ads but has poured plenty of money into outdoor advertising.

White pitches himself as the underdog.

“I don’t think there’s any doubt that I’ll be outspent in this contest, but we’re fighting as hard as we possibly can,” he said. “I don’t have the benefit of several hundred thousand dollars flying into my account from Sydney as the teals do.”

Chaney’s pitch to voters revolves around her continued independence.

“If neither major party wins a majority and I’m re-elected, the people of Curtin will have a powerful voice in the next parliament,” she said.

Outside the premium Herdsman Market in the centre of Curtin, shoppers are not convinced about the teal movement.

Curtin voter Kristine outside Herdsman Fresh last week.Credit: Colin Murty

Kristine, 47, says her husband is in the mining sector, and while she likes a lot of Chaney’s policies, she is worried about the viability of the industry if the teals come to control the balance of power.

“I know that there are a lot of things that if she votes with it, be it with the Greens, or whomever, then that’s probably going to impact on the broader economy and on WA,” Kristine said.

In a parochial state, Kalamunda’s Jason Boston knows his ideal candidate, though he isn’t on the ballot paper.

“If I can have anyone in control of Australia – I don’t just mean Western Australia, I mean Australia – I would say [former premier] McGowan,” Boston said.

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