Labor primary vote exposed in key states despite recovery this year

Labor is exposed to a slump in support in the nation’s two most populous states despite a political recovery in recent weeks, putting key seats at risk in NSW and Victoria due to the weakness of the party’s primary vote.

An exclusive survey shows the Labor primary vote has fallen to 30 per cent in NSW and 27 per cent in Victoria in the first three months of this year, down from 33 per cent in each state at the last election.

Anthony Albanese prepares to greet Peter Dutton on Friday in Sydney.Credit: James Brickwood

The survey also reveals a shift in the government’s favour in both states since the start of this year, although it has not been enough to make up all the ground Labor has lost over the past three years.

While Prime Minister Anthony Albanese regained a personal lead over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton over the past month, the new analysis reveals the daunting task for Labor in securing majority government on May 3.

The analysis, conducted for this masthead by research company Resolve Strategic, is based on responses from 6096 voters over three surveys from January to March, including 3083 respondents in March alone. That is twice as large as the typical monthly survey.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the results showed the weakness in the Labor vote in the two key states as well as the recent trend in the government’s favour, suggesting Albanese could retain power if he maintained momentum for the rest of the campaign.

“The campaign trend so far has been towards Labor, and it’ll be the large regain for them in NSW that will most please their campaign,” said Reed.

“NSW is a swing state with a lot of seats in play.

“Labor’s regain isn’t enough to secure them a majority, at least not yet, because they’ve still got a swing against them in the largest states.

“With such a large crossbench they’ve really got to equal their 2022 showing to avoid sharing power.”

Labor recorded a primary vote of 32.6 per cent at the last election nationwide, delivering it 77 seats, and a final result of 52.1 per cent in two-party terms after preferences, but the Resolve Political Monitor shows the party is behind on both measures.

The lower primary vote in NSW could help the Liberals topple Labor candidates in seats such as Sydney’s Bennelong and the coastal electorates of Gilmore, Robertson and Paterson, which the government holds on margins of less than three per cent.

The outcome in Victoria could generate a swing to the Liberals that puts Labor candidates at risk in seats such as Chisholm, Aston and McEwen located in and around Melbourne, which the government holds on margins of less than four per cent, according to estimates by ABC election analyst Antony Green.

The findings also reveal the challenge for the government in the battleground state of Queensland, where the Labor primary vote has fallen to 25 per cent compared to 27 per cent at the last election.

The Queensland contests centre on three Brisbane seats – Griffith, Ryan and Brisbane – where Labor and the Liberal National Party are both hoping to drive the Greens out of the electorates they won at the last election.

While the Labor primary vote is weaker in Queensland than it was at the last election, the latest Resolve Political Monitor shows the Liberal National Party vote is also slightly down, at 39 per cent compared to 40 per cent three years ago. The Greens primary vote in Queensland is 13 per cent, unchanged since the last election.

The key results come from the survey’s March track, which surveyed a higher-than-usual base of 3083 voters who were chosen to reflect the wider population. This generated results with a margin of error of 1.7 percentage points for national figures, with a higher margin of error for the state results.

The analysis highlights the big gains for Labor after its poor performance in January and February, reflecting the recovery for the government after Cyclone Alfred, the March 25 budget and the formal start of the election campaign.

The recent shift emerged in a comparison of the March survey of more than 3083 respondents with the combined surveys of 3013 respondents from the January and February results.

While the Labor primary was 26 per cent in NSW in the first two months, it was 30 per cent in March. Over the same time, the Coalition primary vote edged up from 39 to 40 per cent.

While the Labor primary vote was 24 per cent in Victoria in the first two months, it was 27 per cent in March. The Coalition’s core support fell from 38 to 35 per cent over the same period.

The outcomes are much closer, however, when the Resolve Political Monitor asked voters to allocate their preferences as they would at the election, generating results in two-party terms that show Labor and the Coalition are tied at 50 per cent each in NSW. While this is close, it reflects a fall in Labor support from 51.4 per cent at the last election.

In Victoria, the outcome in two-party terms shows Labor ahead of the Coalition by 52 to 48 per cent. Labor gained 54.8 per cent of the state vote in two-party terms at the last election.

Because the Resolve Political Monitor asks voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they would write “1” on the ballot papers for the lower house at the election, there is no undecided category in the primary vote results, a key difference from some other surveys. This means there is no “uncommitted” cohort excluded from the results.

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