Will we really let a privileged few racing types kibosh 25,000 new homes?

Sydney needs a development on the scale of the proposed mini-city at Rosehill Racecourse if it has any hope of reaching its lofty housing targets. But the future of that project – which includes a potential 25,000 homes and a Metro station – is in the hands of 11,000 racing enthusiasts (most of whom never go to Rosehill) and some of Sydney’s wealthiest horse trainers.

Those trainers, including Gai Waterhouse and Chris Waller, are among the most vocal opponents to the Australian Turf Club’s plan to sell the western Sydney track. Waterhouse and Waller argue the ATC has no right to put the historic track on the market and members would never support it being flogged. At a parliamentary inquiry into the sale last year, another high-profile trainer, John O’Shea, was blunt. Housing is not the racing world’s problem to fix.

The ATC will take an alternative plan to government for it to buy Rosehill, rather than the turf club becoming a quasi-developer.

“It is not incumbent upon the administration of racing in this state.” O’Shea told the inquiry, “to rectify the inadequate housing policies of various federal and state governments. If that was the case, every golf club and football field in the state would also be under consideration for housing development.” O’Shea’s argument ignores the reality that there are very few sites in Sydney, if any, that could accommodate a new mini-city and a Metro station.

The plan for the mini-city took everyone by surprise. Just before Sydney switched off for the summer, the NSW Labor government wanted to end 2023 with a bang. Rounding out its first year in government, in which it had declared housing as its number-one priority, Premier Chris Minns, flanked by then transport minister Jo Haylen and ATC chairman Peter McGauran, unveiled Labor’s biggest announcement since taking power.

A new mini-city not far from the bustling CBD of Parramatta. With NSW needing to build 75,000 homes a year for five years to meet its targets under the National Housing Accord, the Rosehill plan would be a significant contributor. The government had been coy about whether it would continue with the Coalition’s plans to build Metro West, the mega rail project linking Parramatta with the CBD. But in early December 2023, it finally declared it would not only deliver the rail line, but it would build a station at Rosehill, albeit at some cost. A station is estimated to cost between $500 million to $1 billion.

Naysayers who doubted Labor’s commitment to building infrastructure seemed to be proven wrong, although its promise came with a qualifier. A Rosehill station would only happen if the ATC sold its racecourse to developers, who would deliver tens of thousands of homes. That was just a formality, it seemed.

Until ATC members, including influential trainers, got wind of the plan. Now, as the vote of those members on the sale approaches early next month, the ATC has dramatically changed tack. Clearly anticipating a defeat, it has cooled on the idea of being a quasi-developer and now wants the government to buy the sprawling Rosehill site for at least $5 billion.

Minns, from day one, declared the sale of Rosehill would not cost the taxpayer a cent. But with a new proposal on the table, the premier has also dramatically changed tack and has not ruled out buying Rosehill. Whether the government would even have that option may well prove a moot point.

Minns has stressed that the decision to offload Rosehill rests entirely with the membership of the ATC. He has ruled out a compulsory aquisition of the site. No doubt, this is because his government would not have the stomach to take on the powerful racing fraternity.

If the ATC members do vote down the sale proposal, it will be embarrassing for Minns. While he has said the government “has to take risks” to achieve bold reform, a loss will make Minns look to have been too hasty in backing a half-baked plan. Conversely, Minns will be able to shake off the defeat as a process out of his hands. Neither outcome, however, delivers 25,000 new homes nor a Metro station.

Minns called the Rosehill mini city a “once-in-a-generation” opportunity, although apparently not critical enough for his government to fund. This is not surprising, given the fiscal pressures the government faces. But Minns has staked his premiership on solving the house crisis. If Rosehill is really a key part of the solution, he needs to take risks. But that would involve an almighty fight with the racing industry.

Alexandra Smith is state political editor.