Albanese preparing January reshuffle to replace Shorten before election

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will unveil a refreshed frontbench line-up in late January, with Bill Shorten’s exit from parliament opening the door to a junior minister being promoted, months out from the next federal election.

Senior government sources, who asked not to be named so they could speak freely, say Albanese is considering two options for his frontbench shake-up, with responsibility for Shorten’s former portfolios of Government Services and the NDIS to be handed on as the federal election is not due until May 2025.

Anika Wells, Matt Keogh, Amanda Rishworth and Mark Butler are all being considered to assume outgoing Bill Shorten’s responsibilities. Credit:

In the reshuffle, government sources said the first and more likely option was that Social Services Minister Amanda Rishworth and Health Minister Mark Butler would be handed responsibility for one of each of the portfolios, with NDIS a better fit for Rishworth as the disability agency is part of her department. This would mean the number of cabinet ministers would shrink from 23 to 22 people.

The second option being considered is promoting a member of the outer ministry, with Queensland-based Aged Care and Sports Minister Anika Wells and WA-based Veterans and Defence Personnel Minister Matt Keogh considered the frontrunners. Both are in the Labor Right faction, like Shorten.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton must also replace a senior shadow minister on his frontbench after opposition Senate leader and foreign affairs spokesman Simon Birmingham announced on Thursday that he was quitting politics.

The first details of how Albanese could recast his frontbench have emerged after a successful end to the parliamentary year for the government, which included the passing of 31 new laws on the final day, after months of delay and lengthy negotiations with the Coalition or the Greens and the crossbench.

As parliament wound down for the year, Labor won Senate votes on housing, food prices and a ban on social media apps for under 16s, and other measures.

Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers have to release a mid-year budget update before Christmas that could foreshadow more cost-of-living relief, while Dutton has hinted at more detail on the opposition’s nuclear and housing policies before Christmas too.

Either scenario would mean that Victoria’s influence around the cabinet table would be reduced with Shorten’s exit, but Labor hopes to gain seats in Queensland and hold on to the swag of seats it picked up in Western Australia in 2022.

Promoting a talented new minister from Queensland or WA is seen, internally, as tactically astute and unlikely to cause a fuss, whereas promoting another NSW MP to cabinet at the expense of Victoria would likely put noses out of joint.

Shorten’s combined portfolios of the NDIS and Government Services were given to him when Labor won government as he had been one of the disability insurance scheme’s earliest champions. He had also been a frontrunner in pursuing and supporting the robo-debt royal commission, which made Government Services a natural fit.

The government sources said the prime minister would ponder the changes during a short Christmas break.

Dutton, like Albanese, is expected to be back at work by early January as both men gear up for what is widely expected to be a close election in which a hung parliament is considered a distinct possibility given the size of the crossbench.

Both leaders are also planning, at this stage, to make major policy announcements in the second half of January, with a prime ministerial appearance at the National Press Club around Australia Day pencilled in and some members of both main parties anticipating an election to be called days later, though Albanese has indicated he is leaning towards May.

The most recent Resolve Political Monitor conducted for this masthead in early November showed the opposition’s primary vote had risen by one percentage point to 39 per cent, while Labor’s held steady at 30 per cent. These primary votes would deliver either major party, at best, a razor-thin majority in the next parliament.

While Dutton will feel the loss of Birmingham, a former finance, education, trade and tourism minister at various times under Scott Morrison and Malcolm Turnbull, the need to replace a foreign affairs spokesperson heading into a domestic political campaign is less urgent.

While Liberal deputy leader Sussan Ley and shadow cabinet ministers Jane Hume, James Paterson and Dan Tehan have all been put forward as possible replacements for Birmingham, moving shadow ministers from domestic portfolios months out from an election could disrupt the shadow expenditure review committee process that is now working on election policies.

Another option would be for Dutton to take the portfolio in a caretaker capacity, or for former shadow cabinet minister Julian Leeser to be returned to the frontbench while former ambassador and foreign policy wonk Dave Sharma would be handed an assistant role.

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