By Dominic Brock, Dan Walsh and Adrian Proszenko
Arch rivals the Rabbitohs and Roosters have been handed two of the toughest schedules of the 2025 NRL season, according to analysis of next year’s draw.
The foundation clubs, who will meet in round five and again in the final round before the finals, both have two match-ups against grand finalists Melbourne and Penrith, as well as top-four team Cronulla and likely improvers the Bulldogs and Broncos.
Meanwhile, the finals hopes of the Canberra Raiders and New Zealand Warriors have been given a boost with the most generous draws of the competition.
The Herald has analysed the fixture list for all 17 clubs, rating their opponents based on a combination of where each team finished last season and how the bookmakers rate their premiership chances next year.
Each club has been given a draw difficulty factor for their opponents based on where they finished last year – 17 for premiers Penrith, 1 for wooden spooners Wests Tigers. We’ve also run the numbers based on premiership betting with Sportsbet – 17 for title favourites Melbourne, down to 1 for the bookies’ longshots St George Illawarra.
Every NRL team plays every other club once, and eight teams twice. So the teams they play twice determine which teams have a “tough” draw or an “easy” one.
Our analysis doesn’t consider aspects of the draw such as travel, short turnarounds or the State of Origin schedule, but it does give us a quick snapshot of which clubs face the toughest opponents in 2025.
Here’s how we rank them.
Rabbitohs
No team plays last year’s top four more often than the Bunnies as Wayne Bennett makes his return in cardinal and myrtle. Souths’ start to 2025 is especially tough with skipper Cameron Murray sidelined and a run of games against last year’s top eight from rounds three to nine. There’s a tough five-day turnaround between taking on Cronulla and Penrith in that stretch as well leading into the Origin period. All three of the Rabbitohs’ byes come after round 12 and their run home does get easier, but they will be up against it without early wins.
Difficulty: 1st
Storm
Melbourne’s endurance will go under the microscope with all their byes scheduled before mid-June, though two coincide with Origin fixtures. The last four months straight is a tough ask for any club, let alone one with the Storm’s strong representative contingent. Craig Bellamy will look to bank plenty of early wins over a relatively friendly start to the year given their final month features the Panthers, Bulldogs, Roosters and Broncos.
Difficulty: 2nd
Roosters
Roosters coach Trent Robinson faces a tough draw while rebuilding the Tricolours.Credit: NRL Photos
It’s a tough top and tail for the rebuilding Roosters, who play the Panthers and Broncos twice in the opening two months. They finish the season taking on Melbourne twice in six weeks as well. The marquee games are somewhat offset by regular scheduling, especially to start the season, with all bar one match played on a Thursday or Friday night – until round 10. The Chooks do avoid a lot of travel faced by other teams, with the NRL clocking them at only 10,628km on the road compared to the competition average of 25,152.
Difficulty: 3rd
Cowboys
Plenty of travel as usual for North Queensland and they’ve only got one bye during the Origin period when they can be expected to contribute three or four players. Two games against the all-conquering Panthers and Manly feature in the first 11 weeks, while they also play the Storm and Sharks twice as well.
Difficulty: 4th
Sharks
Trips to Las Vegas, Townsville, Canberra and Perth all feature in Cronulla’s opening six weeks, while their three five-day turnarounds are the equal-most of the NRL. The Sharks’ 13 games against last year’s top eight also hit the competition’s high-water mark but is offset by a comfortable run home. Cronulla don’t leave Sydney after round 18 and have two byes in that period.
Difficulty: 5th
Panthers
The four-time reigning premiers have the toughest start to 2025 with the Sharks, Roosters and Storm as their first three opponents. Life does get easier from there, particularly leading into the finals. Melbourne, Canterbury and Newcastle are the only top-eight teams from last year on Penrith’s dance card from round 18. All three of their byes also fall during the Origin period, though the Panthers face more teams coming off a week’s rest (five) than anyone else in the NRL.
Difficulty: 6th
Broncos
Brisbane host seven of their first 11 games at Suncorp Stadium, though a tricky three-week stretch rounding that out against Canterbury, Penrith and the Rabbitohs includes two five-day turnarounds. The Broncos’ traditional bogy side Melbourne looms twice in their last five games of the season, along with the Dolphins, Cowboys and Knights.
Difficulty: 7th
Eels
Eels coach Jason Ryles.Credit: Edwina Pickles
It’s a baptism of fire for new coach Jason Ryles, who faces mentor Craig Bellamy first-up. Ryles will need to break Melbourne’s undefeated 22-game streak in season openers with a side no longer containing Clint Gutherson, Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Maika Sivo. If the broadcasters are any indication, they will be compelling viewing; they have 14 free-to-air games, more than even the Broncos. Josh Addo-Carr could be cleared to make his debut against his former club in round three.
Difficulty: 8th
Bulldogs
They were the big improvers last year and Canterbury have been rewarded with plenty of love from the broadcasters, with an equal-high 14 matches shown on Channel Nine. Their opening-round encounter against St George Illawarra will be a doozy if they sign former Dragons captain Ben Hunt. They are ranked right in the middle when it comes to the difficulty of opponents, there’s nothing to quibble about here.
Difficulty: 9th
Dragons
Like Melbourne, the Dragons could be running on fumes by season’s end with all three of their byes coming by round 16. Especially considering they face the Panthers, Manly, Cronulla, Bulldogs and Roosters over their final nine weeks, with away trips against the Cowboys and Warriors thrown in. Local rivals in the Bulldogs and Sharks feature twice in their campaign, along with the Roosters, Manly, Parramatta and South Sydney.
Difficulty: 10th
Sea Eagles
Tom Trbojevic’s fitness once again holds to key for Manly.Credit: Getty Images
An ideal start to the year, with four of their first five games at home. It’s a massive advantage for a side that sold out all bar one of its games at Brookvale last season (the only one that didn’t was against Canberra in the 6pm Friday night timeslot). The Sea Eagles are ranked 11th for draw difficulty and after returning to the finals under Anthony Seibold last year, will expect further improvement.
Difficulty: 11th
Wests Tigers
One of the most intriguing watches in 2025, with Phil Gould predicting they will rise into the finals from bottom of the ladder. Superstar recruit Jarome Luai will take on Penrith for the first time in round 14 in one of the biggest games of the year. They’ll be keen on a quick start; they face only one top-eight team in their opening five rounds, but finish their campaign with arduous away trips, to Canberra and the Gold Coast.
Difficulty: 12th
Dolphins
Relatively easy start for new coach Kristian Woolf, whose side faces only one top-eight side in the opening five rounds. The Dolphins have 12 free-to-air games, just one shy of Channel Nine darlings Brisbane, in a pointer to how quickly they have captured the imagination of league fans. Hampered by three five-day turnarounds, but their difficulty factor ranking of 13 gives them every chance of a first finals appearance.
Difficulty: 13th
Titans
The Gold Coast only have to face each of last year’s top-four teams once in 2025, and could be a sneaky chance to climb into finals contention themselves after finishing 14th last year. Of the eight teams they face twice, five missed the eight last season – the Tigers, Broncos, Raiders, Dolphins and Warriors – and two more (the Cowboys and Knights) are expected to slide next year according to the bookies.
Difficulty: 14th
Knights
With an NRL-low nine games against teams that played finals football last season, Newcastle have one of the best schedules in the league. The only downsides are multiple match-ups against powerhouses Penrith and Cronulla, although one of those Panthers match-ups will come while their rep stars are away on Origin duty. They’ll also face fresh teams coming off a bye four times throughout the year. Two early games against the Wests Tigers within the first six rounds, plus winnable matches against the Dolphins and Titans, should help the Knights get off to a strong start.
Difficulty: 15th
Warriors
Based on the premiership odds of their rivals, the Warriors may have the easiest schedule in the league. Of the teams they play twice, only the Knights and Sea Eagles played finals football last season, while several others are expected to go backwards next year. While the New Zealanders will once again endure the most travel of any NRL club, they at least won’t have any five-day turnarounds next season.
Difficulty: 16th
Raiders
Ricky Stuart’s men have just 10 games against finalists from last season, and just one against each of the top four teams from 2024. They also don’t face any team that will be fresh from a bye next season. Double-ups against the Eels, Tigers, Titans, Dragons, Knights, Dolphins and Warriors will give the Green Machine every chance of pushing for a top-eight finish.
Difficulty: 17th
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