The south-east growth areas set to shape the next Qld parliament

Queensland election campaigns are often seen through the lens of major party leaders flying up and down its east coast to clusters of regional city-hugging marginal seats.

While these are one path to government in our decentralised state, in-roads into greater Brisbane and the coasts are another – and one where third-term Labor largely reigns, for now.

Of the 14 most marginal Labor seats LNP leader David Crisafulli had taken aim at to tackle such a task, six sit in this south-east hub. But there are other key contests here, too.

The new suburb of Baringa, among the sprawling developments outside Caloundra – and within its namesake electorate – had the state’s largest population growth in 2022-23 with 1700 people.Credit: Matt Dennien

The top of the list features Nicklin in the Sunshine Coast hinterland, which Labor’s Rob Skelton won in a first for Labor from the LNP’s (recontesting) Marty Hunt by a margin of just 0.1 per cent.

A tad south, straddling the Bruce Highway and sprawling new developments toward the sea, Jason Hunt also made history with a comfier (maybe COVID and retiring MP-aided) 2.5 per cent win in Caloundra.

But it appears in a new light when you consider the 1631 votes this equates to is fewer than the 1700 residents who moved into the new suburb of Baringa alone in the 12-months to last July.

South again across the Pumicestone Passage, and its namesake seat has flipped between Labor and the LNP at the last four elections. Assistant minister Ali King has a 5.3 per cent buffer, but could it flip again to 22-year-old Ariana Doolan? (The would-be youngest women ever in state parliament.)

Skip over the bay to Redcliffe and you land in the safe (6.1 per cent) Labor seat held by Attorney-General Yvette D’Ath since a 2014 byelection which belled-the-cat on the end of the Newman-era.

But D’Ath is bowing out. While successor Kass Hall’s past teaching, police prosecuting and Liberal Party-ing may help, she’ll need it against serial LNP via Family First candidate Kerri-Anne Dooley.

Back into marginal territory, and moving (or crawling?) into Brisbane Proper along Gympie Road, and Transport Minister Bart Mellish sits on a 5.2 per cent buffer in the seat of Aspley.

But the road in could also spell Mellish’s exit, now he’s in the role responsible for long-awaited efforts to ease pressure on the major corridor which have been a major focus of LNP attacks.

For the blue team, former Newman advisor (Lord Mayor, not premier) and Bracken Ridge Ward councillor in City Hall, Amanda Cooper, is returning for a second stab after falling short in 2020.

Out on the southern bayside, and covering the smaller residential bay islands, Redlands is held by Labor’s Kim Richards on a margin of 3.9 per cent. But it has often followed the governing party.

While seat-by-seat swings can differ greatly either side of a statewide shift in the major party vote, polling points against Labor. So the LNP’s riskier seats around Brisbane may be ones to watch more for a potential deepening of their roots.

Chatsworth in Brisbane’s suburban east is the lowest-hanging of these for transport spokesperson Steve Minnikin on 1.3 per cent. Along with fellow shadow cabinet members and former LNP leaders Tim Nicholls in Clayfield (1.6 per cent) and Tim Mander in Everton (2.2 per cent).

But blue-ribbon leafy Moggill, held on 3.6 per cent by education and arts spokesperson but medical doctor Christian Rowan, falls within federal Greens-held Ryan – and is being chipped away at on a state level, too.

Of the three-corner city contests, Cooper is the ripest for Greens’ picking despite Labor’s 10.5 per cent margin. Katinka Winston-Allom came close to denying Jonty Bush a first term in 2020, and even a small swing from red to green this time could seal the deal in the inner west.

CBD and inner north-hugging McConnell, held by senior Labor minister Grace Grace on a similarly healthy looking margin, is another. But a small drop in her first preferences could also drop her into third and leave the fight between the LNP’s Christien Duffey and Greens’ Holstein Wong.

While South Brisbane will be one to watch for Amy MacMahon’s ability to bed the minor party into a second term in its second state seat, while colleague Michael Berkman sits safer in Maiwar.

There are also razor-thin LNP margins on the growing Sunshine and Gold coasts, but these have been difficult for Labor to break into – and may be more so again this time – even if shifting demographics and seat boundaries could change this in future.

While now Housing Minister Meaghan Scanlon boosted her margin in the chunk of the Gold Coast she managed to grasp in 2017 to 7.8 per cent, she will be battling both a looming swing and high-profile LNP opponent in former TV journalist Bianca Stone.

West out of the capital along the Warrego Highway, and Ipswich West will see the mixed urban and rural voters pick what will be their third MP this year after the resignation of Labor’s Jim Madden, LNP byelection upset by Darren Zanow in March, and his bowing-out for medical reasons since.

Plenty of campaign time has also been spent by both major parties in the wider Ipswich region, where seats usually deep red can swing big to blue.

And as Queensland’s population balance shifts further to the south-east, and Brisbane, these almost compass-point tracking growth corridors being staked-out or built-up are likely to only grow in their political significance.

Beyond the south-east, and Labor heartland seats up the coast like Bundaberg (the state’s most marginal) or Rockhampton and Mackay (with retiring MPs) are also in the LNP’s sights, along with the cluster of three marginal or bellwether seats around both Townsville and Cairns.

It’s in the north here, where the Katter’s Australian Party is hoping to boost its current crossbench-leading crop of four – if it can also hold One Nation defector Stephen Andrew’s Mirani spot.

Within a week, we’ll be on the verge of finding out.