Anatomy of a monster: Inside the one-in-1000-year hurricane that smashed Florida
It began as a tropical disturbance, then transformed into a category 5 monster hurtling towards the US coast. Here is how Hurricane Milton left a trail of destruction.
Viewed from space, Hurricane Milton spun menacingly but silently across the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida’s vulnerable, low-lying west coast.
It began as a tropical disturbance tracked from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico, where it grew into what was, for a time, the second most intense storm recorded in a region known for them.
To those sheltering from it as it made landfall, it hit with the force of a bomb.
Nichole Gaza and Shane Ostrander sat on their living room couch clutching their German shorthaired pointer, Atticus, when their front door began to heave in and out, The Washington Post reported.
They raced for further shelter in a bedroom closet when a tornado that had spun off from the hurricane obliterated much of their home, rupturing Gaza’s eardrums.
“The minute we closed the closet door, the explosion happened,” Gaza said.
She was lucky to survive. Many of the storm’s victims, up to 14 dead at the time of writing, were killed by the tornadoes.
Still, despite being the second hurricane to hit the state in a fortnight, Milton’s impact was not as severe as many had earlier feared.
“You face two hurricanes in a couple of weeks – not easy to go through – but I’ve seen a lot of resilience throughout this state,” Florida Governor Ron DeSantis told a press briefing in its wake.
The hurricane machine
Each year, as the northern summer peaks, waters in the Gulf of Mexico grow ever warmer, generating tropical storms above them when surface temperatures pass 26 degrees. Due to global warming, global sea surface temperatures are breaking records at present.
The warmer the water, the more frequent and powerful the storms become.
This year, the temperature has topped 31 degrees, causing perfect conditions for hurricanes Helene and Milton to form over the Gulf and plough north in a one-two punch.
Worse, the warmer it gets, the faster the storms intensify.
Increased heat not only translates to increased energy to fuel the storm but also increased evaporation to charge with rainfall to contribute to flooding.
But it is not just global warming that is accelerating the incidence and intensity of the storms. As the sea level rises, low-lying parts of the Gulf region are becoming more vulnerable to them.
Last year, NASA researchers found seas were rising around the Gulf Coast faster than in other regions because the heat in the water caused thermal expansion.
The timeline of a monster
Sunday, October 6, 6pm UTC
Hurricanes are ranked from category 1 (with winds between 119 and 153 kilometres per hour) to category 5, with winds of between 209 and 251 km/h and above.
Two days after Milton consolidated in the Bay of Campeche on October 4, it underwent what is known as explosive intensification, surging rapidly to become a category 5 monster. Such intensification as storms approach land is particularly dangerous.
Hurricane Michael caused billions of dollars in damage when it intensified into a category 5 storm just before making landfall in 2018.
Monday, October 7, 12pm UTC
Milton’s sheer size and explosive intensification, combined with the fact it was on track to hit the region’s largest city, Tampa, prompted officials to issue dire warnings.
“This is literally catastrophic,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said on CNN on Monday evening. “I can say this without any dramatisation whatsoever: If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you are going to die.”
“It’s an incredible, incredible, incredible hurricane,” veteran meteorologist John Morales said during a live report for NBC 6 South Florida, choking back tears as he detailed the speed of Milton’s rapid intensification this week. “I apologise … This is just horrific.”
Monday, October 7, 6pm UTC
According to NOAA, the record water temperatures allowed the storm to intensify into a category 5 hurricane in record time. Seen from space, Milton’s enormity became viscerally apparent.
As the hurricane approached land, another devastating implication was clear. As the system’s heated air rose and spun, tornadoes began forming around it.
More than 100 tornado warnings were issued across Florida, and the swarm of tornadoes that spun out of Milton contributed to its destructive power.
Thursday, October 10, 12am UTC
As Milton approached, the winds dipped to category 4 levels, and when it hit land, they were category 3.
But this did not ease fears entirely. Storm surges can remain high even as winds fall.
How the worst fears weren’t realised
By the time the storm system had crossed the long Floridian peninsula, it was clear that the region’s worst fears had not been realised.
Milton had been predicted to hit Tampa, the region’s most populous city, but instead, it veered away, making landfall in Siesta Key, a barrier island about 110 kilometres to the south.
The storm surge – seawater forced onto land by the winds – peaked at under three metres, a full metre lower than had been earlier predicted.
Rather than slamming into the coastline as a category 5 storm, it slowed to a category 3, with sustained winds between 150 and 224 km/h.
Early reports suggested that tornados killed eight people, including six in a retirement village of mobile homes known as the Spanish Lakes Country Club.
The hurricane’s loss of intensity and slowdown as it made landfall spared those in its path, but it also broadened the storm and may even have contributed to the tornado swarm that it spawned.
Despite this, in some areas, it dumped 22 centimetres of rain in three hours, making it a one-in-1000-year event. Recovery is expected to be hard and long; the region is already reeling from the impact of Hurricane Helene, which killed more than 230 people across five states a fortnight ago.
More than 3 million people were left without power.
Speaking at a White House briefing, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said there were reports of as many as 10 deaths from tornadoes but cautioned that the number was tentative.
Among many rescues conducted by emergency services, a Coast Guard helicopter picked up a man clinging to an ice box in the Gulf of Mexico after his fishing boat was hit by seven-metre seas.
“This man survived in a nightmare scenario for even the most experienced mariner,” Coast Guard Lieutenant Commander Dana Grady said.
Though the storm surge did rise as high as feared, floods associated with the deluge still posed serious dangers.
On Thursday morning, Hillsborough County Sheriff officers rescued a 14-year-old boy clinging to debris in flooded suburban streets.
The aftermath – and what happens next
It is not yet clear how many people Milton killed, how much it will cost, or how long the recovery effort will take. Those who live in pathways of the great tropical storms do not yet even know if it will be the last of the season, which normally drags into November.
All that is sure is that there are more to come and that storms are likely to become even more common and more intense until greenhouse emissions begin to fall.
As the clean-up from Hurricane Helene bled into preparations for Milton, misinformation began to spread online, accelerated by Donald Trump, who, along with Elon Musk, accused President Joe Biden’s administration of “stealing” emergency funds to direct to immigrants.
A warning message is seen next to a flag supporting Donald Trump in St. Petersburg.Credit: AP
Some went so far as to allege that the Federal Emergency Management Agency was using the storm as cover to seize assets and land; others suggested that the Democratic Party was somehow manipulating the weather.