By Dan Walsh
For a club with a three-time premiership-winning coach and a dozen Origin or international stars in their team (with a couple more on the bench), it beggars belief that the Roosters only have one win from 20 games against Penrith and Melbourne.
Since the start of 2020, they have a five per cent win record against the Panthers and Storm – the worst of any side against the two best teams of the past five years.
The Dolphins (zero from five) might yet match them. Poor old Wests Tigers might have three wooden spoons in the cutlery draw at Concord, but they also have a couple of wins over the Panthers.
Since Penrith rose to power, Trent Robinson’s side do not, in nine attempts and counting, as they’ve been reminded ad nauseam by the rest of the rugby league world.
But there are lessons to be learnt of course, because not even the Panthers are unbeatable, and tenth time must just be the charm.
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Looking at the past three clashes (won by Penrith in a combined 100-36 margin), the Roosters have been going backwards from almost the very first exchanges against a ruthless Panthers defence.
Penrith’s swarming defence has dominated the Tricolours’ blue-chip pack like no other side, particularly in the opening 40 minutes.
Champion Data tracks the yardage battle since 2022 as the most comprehensive straight-sets win to Ivan Cleary’s – with Penrith clocking up anywhere between almost 400 and 700 more metres than the Roosters.
Across those three first halves, Penrith average 880 run metres to the Roosters’ 556.
“That’s definitely our defensive style, rushing up and trying to contain the opposition’s big men, and when it’s against a quality side like the Roosters it’s only natural that you want to match them and step everything up a gear,” Liam Martin says.
Penrith’s own approach with ball in hand during last year’s clashes featured back-rowers being regularly dropped back inside on angled runs to challenge the Roosters’ lateral movements in defence. The Tricolours know it, too.
“That’s how they play,” skipper James Tedesco says. “They turn the ball under a lot and make your middles work, and then later in the game they get you on the edges when the middles are a bit tired … but we know our forwards can play long minutes and we’re up for that challenge.”
And as for the Roosters’ response? Melbourne managed to turn similar tactics back on the Panthers themselves last month, with Tyran Wishart and Cameron Munster challenging Penrith’s middle defence.
The Roosters may be without Sam Walker and Brandon Smith. And Tedesco and Joey Manu might be significantly bigger bodies, but their speed and footwork in around the ruck will tire any defensive unit if they can get rolling in concert with Connor Watson.
The Storm’s targeting of Brian To’o from the boot, ensuring he was making kick returns instead of play one and two carries, also significantly limited his running game – so crucial to Penrith starting sets on the front foot.
Just as Melbourne kicked for Will Warbrick and his 193cm frame repeatedly in their two-point win, the Roosters should also be naturally looking to the air given they have the tallest back line in the competition, including wingers Dom Young (200cm) and Daniel Tupou (196cm).
Living on the edges and targeting an injured man
And as Tedesco noted, the Panthers do like to get you on the edges. When they visited Allianz Stadium early this year without Nathan Cleary, Luke Keary was in their sights all night and Sunia Turuva finished with a hat-trick on their right edge.
A few weeks earlier, Manly had run Haumole Olakau’atu relentlessly at the diminutive veteran playmaker, with Keary performing admirably in holding up a man with 28 kilos and 13 centimetres on him several times.
Penrith instead sent a small army of decoy runners either side of him and Sitili Tupouniua, repeatedly asking the pair to make split-second decisions on when to turn in and help their teammate, and when to hold off and slide.
Twice the Roosters defence was pulled out of sequence and into indecision for points.
Once again, beating Penrith at their own game is as good a point as any for them to start. Cleary returns from a dislocated left shoulder, which will be on his inside as Angus Crichton promises to “welcome him back”.
Roosters coach Trent Robinson said on Thursday that “you know when someone’s got an injury and you know that you have to ask that question, but you don’t change your game plan towards it.”
In all likelihood, winding Crichton up down Cleary’s corridor should be a focal point of Robinson’s plans given Crichton has been the best forward in the NRL this season.
And the last time Cleary defended in a big game, Brisbane ran three tries down the same edge before he turned around with one of the greatest grand final performances in history. Which just goes to show, it’s never too late to rewrite the record books.
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