Why Kamala Harris chose Tim Walz over Josh Shapiro

In the days she was vetting Josh Shapiro, a rising star and very popular governor of Pennsylvania (the state Kamala Harris must win to become president), there was serious pushback from some of the party’s deep thinkers and interest groups.

The most divisive issue in the Democratic Party – just as it is for Labor in Australia – is Israel and the war in Gaza. Shapiro is a staunch supporter of Israel. With US backing, Israel may be in a regional war with Lebanon and Iran in coming days. This is a crisis that would take a political toll.

Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and her new running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.Credit: AP

At this very moment, was there a safer choice than Shapiro? Harris concluded there was, and chose Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota and 12-year veteran of the House of Representatives. A happy warrior for the middle class in the spirit of the legendary Hubert Humphrey, who served as vice president to Lyndon Johnson. A safe, steady and reliable asset to Harris.

Harris’ decision came down to the same defining judgment this choice always requires: the private discussion on how closely they will work together. Can the man I am talking to be the most able vice president, who can step in and execute the office in a heartbeat if necessary? Biden chose Harris to be vice president because he knew what the job required after serving Barack Obama as VP for eight years. He also knew exactly what he needed from Harris so they could work together effectively. Harris chose Walz by using that precise lens to assess Shapiro and Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona.

Harris wanted a vice president with governing experience. She can hardly approach Biden’s mastery of Congress and what he won on the budget, healthcare, clean energy, infrastructure, build-it-in-America, tax policy and much more. Walz can strengthen her leverage on Capitol Hill and help bring home her legislative agenda.

Harris, in considering Shapiro, wanted to nail victory in Pennsylvania. If Harris carries Pennsylvania and adds Georgia (with its 33 per cent of the vote that is black) and Wisconsin – right next door to Walz’s Minnesota – she could lose Michigan (with its significant Muslim and Arab-American vote), as well as Nevada and Arizona and still win the election.

Tim Walz will be well received by American voters, unlike Donald Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance.Credit: New York Times

Shapiro will still go all-out to secure Pennsylvania – indeed, the state’s voters will be very pleased they are not losing their very popular governor. At the same time, Walz can buttress the “Blue Wall” that Trump keeps attacking with abandon.

Harris and Walz can seize the middle – and win in November.

The past three weeks have been exceptional for the Democrats. Harris has erased Trump’s lead in the national popular vote. She is attracting back young voters, black voters and Latinos – but not yet at the levels enjoyed by Biden in his 2020 victory.

Nevertheless, Harris will build on the momentum in the next two weeks. Walz will be well received, much better than Trump’s pick of Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio, whose “handmaid tales” about women and their bodies are a real drag on Trump. In two weeks’ time, Harris and Walz will arrive in Chicago to a tumultuous reception from the party’s legendary stars with unmatched wattage: past presidents Bill Clinton and Obama, Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama and President Joe Biden.

But it is imperative – and Harris knows this – that she outlines for the country the most compelling vision for where she wants to take America over the next four years. You don’t win the presidency on memes; it is won on trust.

Even with a stellar call from Harris to the nation, Trump can still beat her – comprehensively. Trump is not down. He’s tied. He is fully competitive in all the swing states. Trump has a commanding lead in the polls on who is best to manage the economy and inflation. Trump heralds the rocky stock market as the “Kamala Crash”.

Trump has the same lead on the hot-button issue of immigration and the southern border. These can be killer issues against Harris.

But Trump has form on how he can squander the potency of his base. Trump’s first instinct was to define Harris as a radical left San Francisco extremist with social policies that are way out of the mainstream. Now, instead, he prefers to focus on calling her “dumb as a rock” and a “lunatic”. Trump would rather talk about Kamala’s race and heritage, the size of her crowds, why Christians must vote for Trump, and why Jews should be ashamed for voting against him. He has lost ground.

Jimmy Carter exemplifies the enthusiasm Harris has spawned and must sustain. As governor of Georgia and then as president, Carter embraced racial harmony. Carter is not interested in reaching his 100th birthday on October 1. He just wants to live long enough to vote for Kamala Harris on November 5.

Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.

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