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Courageous, clean and consistent: How Smith jagged No.1 ranking for this year’s AFL draft

By Marc McGowan
Updated

There are two consensus views on this year’s AFL draft class.

The first is it’s an exciting and very deep crop, and the second is there is no surefire No.1 selection, 12 months after Harley Reid was the clear standout prospect at the top of the draft.

Here are our top 30 prospects based on discussions with recruiters from 10 clubs, and factors in this year’s AFL under-18 championships, performance across all levels, potential, attributes, and injuries that may have impacted them.

Carlton’s father-son Camporeale twins – Ben and Lucas – Harry O’Farrell, Charlie Nicholls, Giants Academy ruckman Logan Smith and Ned Bowman are among those to miss out, while there is a new No.1 ...

Top draft prospects Levi Ashcroft, Jagga Smith, and Sid Draper.

Top draft prospects Levi Ashcroft, Jagga Smith, and Sid Draper.Credit: Wayne Taylor, AFL Photos. Artwork: Matt Davidson

1. Jagga Smith
Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro
Position: Midfielder, Height: 181cm, Born: 28/1/2006

Under-18 championships stats (average): 29.3 disposals, 13.8 contested possessions, 6.8 clearances

The midfield rubber man, who constantly weaves his way out of trouble at stoppages, is an extraordinarily gifted ball-winner. Smith won at least 28 disposals in all seven of his games for the Chargers this year, and gathered between 23 and 37 touches across four appearances at the championships. He has continually proven his slender frame won’t be an issue against men, most recently for Richmond’s VFL team, and the belief is he could play in the AFL immediately. He ticks almost every box in an on-baller’s job description.

2. Levi Ashcroft
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
Midfielder, 179cm, 18/12/2006

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U18 champs stats (avg): 25.5 disposals, 3.3 clearances, 7 score involvements

The brother of Brisbane rising star Will and son of triple premiership-winner Marcus already has an impressive resume and record as a consistently high performer. Ashcroft – who is expected to continue his family’s legacy at the Lions as a father-son selection – is one of two players in this draft to be a dual under-18 All-Australian. He has arguably not been quite as good this year as last, but that speaks to how good he was in 2023. Ashcroft is a neat kick, boasts excellent midfield craft, and has become a regular goalkicker.

3. Finn O’Sullivan
Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro
Midfielder, 182cm, 30/5/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 11.5 disposals, 3 inside 50s, 3.5 tackles

O’Sullivan was once this year’s likely No.1 pick, but a wretched injury run in 2024 has held him back and left some doubt on where he will land. He remains a leading contender to be the dux of this class, but recruiters want to see more from him after playing only two so-so championships games. In O’Sullivan’s favour is he was so outstanding at under-16 level, then as an All-Australian bottom-ager in the under-18s. He matches strong endurance with excellent skills, and his overhead marking is always brought up as a strength.

4. Josh Smillie
Eastern Ranges/Vic Metro
Midfielder, 194cm, 17/5/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 18.8 disposals, 5.8 clearances, 6.8 score involvements

The teenager dubbed Patrick Cripps 2.0 has a bit to prove, with recruiters keen to see a higher work-rate from him. Smillie missed All-Australian selection after bouncing between the midfield and up forward at the championships while producing decent numbers without being dominant. The expectation is he will respond in the second half of the season, which started with a strong display against Gippsland. Smillie has impressive physical attributes, is powerful, and has a knack for lifting when his team needs him, but must improve his running.

5. Sam Lalor
GWV Rebels/Vic Country
Midfielder/forward, 187cm, 30/8/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 11 disposals, 4 tackles, 1.3 goals

Lalor is one of several top prospects who has endured an injury-interrupted year, but there is excitement about his upside. Him being likened to Christian Petracca should give people an insight into the player recruiters think he can become. Lalor, who also has a high-level cricket background, is a bull in the contest, and similarly impactful as a midfielder and forward. He had only brief on-ball bursts at the championships because he was short on match fitness, but kicked three set-shot goals against the Allies. One to watch.

Sid Draper is widely regarded as a top prospect this year.

Sid Draper is widely regarded as a top prospect this year.Credit: AFL Photos

6. Sid Draper
South Adelaide/South Australia
Midfielder, 180cm, 5/7/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 21 disposals, 8 contested possessions, 3.8 clearances

A serious shin stress injury delayed Draper’s season starting, and left him scrambling to be ready for the championships. It was an unfortunate blow for a player who dominated in his bottom-age season at all levels. Draper still made his mark at the 2024 championships, earning All-Australian honours for the second straight year. He has no trouble finding the Sherrin, has an appetite for hard work, and is an expert at navigating through traffic, but some recruiters would like to see him make better decisions at times with his kicking.

7. Luke Trainor
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
Tall defender, 194cm, 10/4/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 19.8 disposals, 1.8 intercept marks, 4.8 rebound 50s

Trainor’s blistering start to the season propelled him on draft boards, but also meant recruiters started nitpicking him more. He is unlikely to develop into a defender who consistently mans the opposition’s best key forward, and there were eyebrows raised when Trainor did not get the job on Harry Armstrong in a school clash. However, Trainor is an excellent interceptor who takes the game on, and some recruiters tip him to be a better player at AFL than underage level. He could go higher than this if a team has a defensive need.

8. Harry Armstrong
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
Tall forward, 195cm, 14/6/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 9 disposals, 3.7 F50 marks, 3 goals

Armstrong’s five-goal starring role in Metro’s last-gasp victory over Country helped rocket him into the upper echelon. He is universally regarded as the best key forward prospect – and some believe he could challenge for No.1 by year’s end. Armstrong’s towering contested mark on the wing between two Country defenders in the dying stages of the championships finale is imprinted in recruiters’ minds. He has great size and athleticism, and an accurate left boot, but some recruiters want to see him compete more.

9. Bo Allan
Peel Thunder/Western Australia
Defender/midfielder, 191cm, 16/2/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 20 disposals, 3.7 clearances, 6 tackles

Recruiters believe WA’s top 2024 prospect is a top-10 lock, and he appeals to them as a powerful, strong and tough athlete whose height and skillset give him positional versatility. Allan could fill a role immediately at half-back or the wing, but should develop into an inside midfielder. He might even be Fremantle-bound as a local product, given the Dockers have three first-round picks, with Collingwood’s selection – which Freo own from last year’s Lachie Schultz trade – expected to land in his draft range. Allan’s kicking could improve.

10. Xavier Lindsay
Gippsland Power/Vic Country
Midfielder, 183cm, 3/8/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 22.7 disposals, 5 inside 50s, 4.3 clearances

You will struggle to find a recruiter who doesn’t love Lindsay, who is rising to the point he is a genuine chance to be snapped up in the top 10. Words such as “outstanding”, “jet” and even “special” came up in conversations about the Power’s All-Australian midfielder. Gippsland’s defeat of Eastern Ranges a fortnight ago saw him win a game-high 31 disposals and outshine fellow first-round prospects Josh Smillie and Christian Moraes. Lindsay boasts a classy left slipper, and performs in inside and outside midfield roles.

11. Harvey Langford
Dandenong Stingrays/Vic Country
Midfielder, 190cm, 15/3/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 25.5 disposals, 6.3 clearances, 7.5 score involvements

Langford was considered closer to a top-30 pick than top-10 pre-championships before sharing the Larke Medal as the carnival’s best performer. He is a great size for a midfielder, powerful, can mark the ball in attack, and has answered queries on his endurance, with recruiters now convinced of his game-running prowess, although he is not quick. It will be fascinating to see how high he ends up because some scouts rave about him, whereas others believe he is a dime-a-dozen on-baller whose kicking could be better.

Vic Metro star Isaac Kako could well be Essendon-bound.

Vic Metro star Isaac Kako could well be Essendon-bound.Credit: AFL Photos

12. Isaac Kako
Calder Cannons/Vic Metro
Forward, 175cm, 7/3/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 14.5 disposals, 2 goals, 8 score involvements

Changes to Next Generation Academy rules mean Kako, whose parents were born in Iraq, is likely to be a Bomber – but where a bid comes for the dazzling goalsneak remains to be seen. There were question marks on him entering the championships, particularly to do with his finishing, but he kicked eight goals in four eye-catching games. Kako is often compared to last year’s No.5 pick, Hawk Nick Watson. The consensus is Kako isn’t quite as classy, but creates havoc and some recruiters would use a top-10 selection on him.

13. Tobie Travaglia
Bendigo Pioneers/Vic Country
Defender/midfielder, 187cm, 26/10/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 21.8 disposals, 8 contested possessions, 3.5 intercept marks

There is a growing army of Travaglia admirers, and recruiters are impressed with his reliability, consistency, and how much he has improved this year. That development helped him force his way into the AFL Academy squad, where he was a good performer against VFL opposition, and he also excelled at the championships. Travaglia is rarely beaten in one-on-one defensive situations, marks the Sherrin well, is highly competitive, and can run all day, which he has illustrated while playing further afield on a wing.

Part of the Gold Coast academy, Leo Lombard thrives in the contest.

Part of the Gold Coast academy, Leo Lombard thrives in the contest.Credit: AFL Photos

14. Leo Lombard
GC Suns Academy/Allies
Midfielder, 178cm, 5/10/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 26.3 disposals, 10.5 contested possessions, 4.8 clearances

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The co-Larke medallist as the most outstanding player at this year’s championships will add to Gold Coast’s burgeoning youth under Damien Hardwick. Lombard could attract a bid higher than this, and maybe even late in the top 10. However, he is seen as a similar player to future teammate Jake Rogers and there is a deeper midfield group in the 2024 class than last year’s draft, so he will probably sit somewhere in this range. Lombard is a big ball-winner who thrives in the contest, but can tidy up his skill execution.

15. Taj Hotton
Sandringham Dragons
Midfielder/forward, 182cm, 17/6/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): N/A

Hotton’s incredible start to the season, including a 32-disposal, four-goal game against Oakleigh, had him touted as a top-10 pick before he suffered an ACL rupture at training in May. That setback ended his season prematurely and means he is more difficult to place, given the new risk associated with drafting him. Kangaroo Brayden George slid in the order two years ago for the same reason before sustaining a second ACL tear this season. The upside is obvious in Hotton, who has a great leap, marks the ball well and is versatile.

16. Joe Berry
Murray Bushrangers/Vic Country
Forward, 180cm, 18/4/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 13.3 disposals, 2.3 goals, 2.8 tackles

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There is a lot of love within recruiting ranks for Berry, who has been a consistent goalkicker throughout the season, whether for the Bushrangers or as a key cog for Country at the championships. He will be a high half-forward at AFL level, where his speed, power, agility, endurance and kicking skills will make him a menace for opposition defences. There are some recruiters who would pick Berry before Isaac Kako, but they bring different strengths to the table. Don’t be surprised if he goes even earlier than this.

17. Murphy Reid
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
Midfielder/forward, 181cm, 30/7/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 24.5 disposals, 3.3 clearances, 7.3 score involvements

This ranking reflects the likelihood that Reid will predominantly play as a high half-forward rather than a midfielder at the top level because of his lack of height and leg speed. However, he has some exceptional qualities, including clean ball use, football smarts, vision and agility, all of which were on display at the championships as he earned All-Australian selection. Recruiters also felt his touches were more damaging than previously, but that his kicking could still improve.

18. Christian Moraes
Eastern Ranges/Vic Metro
Midfielder, 183cm, 8/11/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 20.8 disposals, 4.5 inside 50s, 5.8 marks

Moraes is, perhaps, the toughest player to rank. He put together an outstanding bottom-age season last year that fuelled expectations he would be a top-10 selection, but has not been quite as good in 2024. Moraes is highly talented, a gifted offensive player and the best runner in this year’s class, which led to him spending most of the championships on a wing because of Metro’s deep group of midfield options. The consensus view among recruiters is he will need the right environment to thrive, but could surge again.

19. Alixzander Tauru
Gippsland Power/Vic Country
Tall defender, 191cm, 16/11/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 6.7 disposals, 2 intercept marks, 4 intercept possessions

This ranking might be too conservative, with Tauru looming as the potential bolter in this year’s draft after being largely unknown on season’s eve. The Power experimented with him recently as a midfielder, but recruiters see him purely as a defender, even more so after seeing that positional switch. As a backman, Tauru is highly competitive, brings great effort, bravely soars for marks, and gobbles up intercepts for fun – including taking 15 across a two-game period in June.

20. Alex Dodson
Sturt/South Australia
Ruckman, 203cm, 15/6/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 17.3 disposals, 3.7 clearances, 6.7 hit-outs to advantage

Dodson knocked back the chance to play in the NBL for the Adelaide 36ers to chase his AFL dream. Recruiters consider Dodson as comfortably the best ruck prospect in this year’s class, ahead of Giants Academy big man Logan Smith. Several of them argue he is also well ahead of North Melbourne and fellow South Australian big man Taylor Goad – the No.20 pick in 2023 – at the same stage. Dodson’s All-Australian performance at the championships only enhanced his reputation, given his limited football exposure.

21. Jobe Shanahan
Bendigo Pioneers/Allies
Tall forward/defender, 194cm, 2/8/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 12.3 disposals, 5.5 marks, 1.3 goals

The big question for recruiters about Shanahan is whether he is a forward or defender. He has spent more time in attack and kicked bundles of goals, but an impressive recent stint down back confirmed suspicions for some scouts that he is best-suited at that end. As a forward, Shanahan uses his athleticism to create opportunities for himself and is a good kick, and certain recruiters have him not far behind Harry Armstrong, but would like to see him compete harder.

Jack Whitlock looks to evade a tackle during the national championships.

Jack Whitlock looks to evade a tackle during the national championships.Credit: AFL Photos

22. Jack Whitlock
Murray Bushrangers/Vic Country
Tall forward, 200cm, 16/5/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 14.8 disposals, 5 marks, 1 goal

Whitlock, whose twin Matt is also a top-30 prospect, burst into first-round calculations with a four-goal haul from eight scoring shots against Tasmania in the opening round of the Talent League. His future appears to be up forward and as a relief ruckman, whereas his brother is a genuine swingman. Whitlock is still a bit raw, but his sheer size, marking ability and competitiveness mean he will be coveted in the draft and could get snapped up in the teens. His two-goal championships finale performance helped that cause.

23. Jesse Dattoli
Northern Knights/Vic Metro
Midfielder/forward, 179cm, 7/8/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 15.3 disposals, 7.3 marks, 6 score involvements

Dattoli has fans in this draft range, and even as high as the late teens, after a strong stretch of play that includes the championships. Recruiters are not bothered by his height and some see similarities with dual Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale. Dattoli projects as a player who will spend time as a midfielder and up forward at the next level. He has improved as a runner to complement his smarts, toughness and power that enables him to move through stoppages. Dattoli has also shown marking ability when playing in attack.

24. Tom Gross
Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro
Midfielder/forward, 181cm, 15/9/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 20 disposals, 3 clearances, 7 score involvements

There is an old-school feel to the rugged way Gross goes about things. He is one of the toughest on-ballers in this year’s draft group and has the acceleration to break away from stoppages, while also being a scoreboard threat with his underrated marking ability when he plays up forward. Likened to Rory Sloane, Gross has been a consistent ball-winner whose output rarely wavers. Not being as dynamic as some of his midfield peers might mean he slips into the 20s, but he will be a good addition wherever he ends up.

25. Harrison Oliver
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
Defender, 181cm, 15/6/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 16.3 disposals, 5.3 marks, 1.3 intercept marks

Oliver has established himself as the best small defender in the 2024 crop, with recruiters praising his balance between attack and defence. He starred under his Dragons coach Rob Harding for Metro at the championships, earning All-Australian selection. Some scouts would be willing to take Oliver slightly higher than this, and a team with a positional need may do exactly that. He is viewed as a safe pick who will competently fill a role at the highest level.

Jonty Faull in action for Vic Country during the national championships.

Jonty Faull in action for Vic Country during the national championships.Credit: AFL Photos

26. Jonty Faull
GWV Rebels/Vic Country
Tall forward, 195cm, 1/2/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 8.3 disposals, 3.3 marks, 1.7 goals

A back injury sidelined Faull for the first few months of the season, but he returned with a five-goal splash mid-year before enjoying some good championships performances. He is tall enough to hold down a key-forward post and his talent is not in doubt, with his contested marking, athleticism, aggression and goalkicking all ticks. Like fellow key forwards in this class, recruiters are keen to see how Faull fares as the weather warms up – and he is one who could rise.

27. Thomas Sims
Northern Knights/Vic Metro
Tall forward, 199cm, 12/5/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 8.5 disposals, 2.8 F50 marks, 1 goal

Another of the key forward cluster in this area of the draft who has shown promise. Sims is the ideal size for a modern player at his position and can also pinch-hit in the ruck, which only adds to his value. He has had some dominant displays, including a five-goal day against Western Jets and a monstrous 7.4 performance at Oakleigh’s expense, where he grabbed eight marks inside 50. There is still a decent gap between Sims’ best and worst, so improving his consistency will be key.

28. Sam Marshall
Sandringham Dragons/Allies
Midfielder, 185cm, 19/1/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 27 disposals, 9.8 contested possessions, 4 clearances

The Brisbane Lions Academy prospect relocated to Victoria last year to accept a scholarship at Melbourne Grammar, and has blossomed with more opportunity this season. His elite endurance – he is a sub-six-minute two-kilometre runner – and ball-winning talents were on display during his All-Australian campaign at the championships. Those that rate Marshall highest noted how he stood up in clutch moments late in games, whereas others are concerned with his kicking and feel he may only be a role player in the AFL.

29. Matt Whitlock
Murray Bushrangers/Vic Country
Tall defender/forward, 199cm, 16/5/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): 14 disposals, 4.8 marks, 3.3 intercept possessions

Whitlock’s twin brother Jack has grabbed more headlines this year, but he is nipping at his heels. Matt has increased his draft stock since swinging forward to kick multiple goals in six Talent League matches, including twice slotting five majors, while also showing plenty of ability as a defender. There are recruiters who believe Matt is the more athletic of the siblings, and his height and capability at both ends mean this ranking could climb significantly by draft time.

Dandenong Stingray Noah Mraz has had a challenging season in more ways than one.

Dandenong Stingray Noah Mraz has had a challenging season in more ways than one.Credit: Paul Jeffers

30. Noah Mraz
Dandenong Stingrays
Tall defender, 198cm, 20/2/2006

U18 champs stats (avg): N/A

Mraz’s year has not gone according to plan, with a stress fracture in the navicular bone in his left foot restricting him to only two matches for the Stingrays – and he almost certainly won’t play again this season. Some recruiters believe he had the chance to emerge as the draft’s best key defender before the setback, but others are still unsure about him, particularly not being able to see him this season. Mraz is competitive, marks well and is a good size, but is not overly quick and can improve his kicking.

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