How Australia’s swimmers compare to the rest of the world ahead of Olympics

The morning after Australia’s swimmers officially booked their ticket to the Paris Olympics, the country’s stars turned their attention to an NFL stadium in Indianapolis, some 15,000 kilometres away.

How will Australia’s swimmers perform in Paris in July and August? Is this really, as Ian Thorpe declared on Saturday night, shaping up as the greatest Australian Olympic swimming team in history?

We’ll know a lot more by the end of the week. After six nights of strong performances at the Brisbane Aquatic Centre, the USA’s swimming trials began with a bang on Sunday morning, Australian time.

USA Swimming has transformed Lucas Oil Stadium, the home of the Indianapolis Colts, into a swimming arena for the week, with capacity for 30,000 fans.

Gretchen Walsh is a superstar in the US college system but almost unrecognisable in Australia. On Sunday, she broke the women’s 100m butterfly world record by 0.3 seconds … in a semi-final.

Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis is hosting the US swimming trials. Credit: AP

Minutes later, Ariarne Titmus’ long-time rival and the undisputed greatest female swimmer of all time, Katie Ledecky, clocked 3:58.35 to win the women’s 400m freestyle final. The time was almost three seconds slower than what Titmus managed in Brisbane on Monday night.

But after months of debate and previews, the swimming world is this week going to get a decent gauge of who is going to reign in Paris.

As it stands, there are six individual events on the Paris swimming program where Australia has the No.1 ranked swimmer, based on times this year (so far). There are also major gold medal chances in relays, notably in the women’s 4x100m and 4x200m freestyle. Of course, a lot can change, but here’s an early form guide.

Best bets

Ariarne Titmus

Everything is going perfectly for Titmus, who has put herself in position to make it back-to-back gold medals in both the 200m and 400m freestyle. No female swimmer has managed that accomplishment. Titmus (3:55.44) was 0.08 seconds off her world record in the 400m freestyle and much quicker than Canada’s Summer McIntosh and Ledecky have been this year. The 400m freestyle in Paris has been billed as the “Race of the Century” but, on current form, it could be the Australians to lose. Nothing is a given in sport and that’s why Titmus’s coach, Dean Boxall, will have all sorts of tricks up his sleeve to keep his athlete primed. She will also contest the 800m freestyle, and is a medal chance.

Kaylee McKeown

Titmus might be more of a household name, but McKeown is just as dominant. The three-time Olympic gold medallist is the fastest in the world this year in the three individual events she will contest in Paris: the 100m and 200m backstroke, and the 200m individual medley. No woman has completed the 100m and 200m backstroke double at back-to-back Olympics. Shane Gould (Munich 1972) is the only Australian to win three individual gold medals at the same Olympics. If there’s one swimmer to keep an eye on this week in Indianapolis, it’s backstroker Regan Smith, who is McKeown’s biggest rival. Smith came second to McKeown in all three backstroke events (50m, 100m and 200m) at last year’s world championships in Fukuoka but has been posting sharp times and will be wanting to spoil the Australian’s party.

Cam McEvoy

The 30-year-old, who effectively quit swimming after the Tokyo Olympics, is the first Australian male swimmer to make it to a fourth Games. A 100m freestyle specialist in years gone by, McEvoy has revolutionised his training program and is focusing on the 50m freestyle. Australia has never won a medal in this event. His rise was capped with a maiden individual world championship gold medal last year. McEvoy clocked 21.35 at trials but has swum 21.13 this year. His gold medal-winning time of 21.06 last year was an Australian record. It was the biggest winning margin in a men’s 50m freestyle final in world championship history.

Gold medal chances

Sam Short and Elijah Winnington

Short won gold (400m freestyle), silver (800m freestyle) and bronze (1500m freestyle) at last year’s world championships but was below his best at trials due to illness. He’s been battling gastro, to the point he pulled out of the 1500m (he will still be allowed to race it in Paris). Short’s 400m and 800m times in Japan last year put him in gold medal contention. He believes he can break the 400m and 1500m freestyle world records in Paris. The question is whether he can get back to full health and perform when it matters. Elijah Winnington owns the second-fastest times in the 400m and 800m this year.

Mollie O’Callaghan

O’Callaghan beat her own world record in the 200m freestyle at the Olympic trials but was beaten by Titmus. O’Callaghan took that loss to heart – she was spotted crying in the arms of coach Dean Boxall after – and will use it as motivation. If everything goes to plan, she and Titmus can go 1-2 in that event, it just depends on what order. O’Callaghan won gold in the 100m freestyle at last year’s world championships. That time (52.16) was quicker than Marrit Steenbergen’s world best this year (52.26).

Mollie O’Callaghan and Ariarne Titmus after their epic 200m freestyle final.Credit: Getty

Kyle Chalmers

A gold medallist in Rio in 2016, Chalmers was pipped by American Caeleb Dressel in the 100m freestyle in Tokyo. His time of 47.75 at trials wasn’t anything special, but he’s been battling a bad back. China’s Pan Zhanle set a new world record earlier this year (46.8 seconds). Chalmers’ best is 47.08 and it’s likely he’ll have to go faster if he wants another gold medal.

Zac Stubblety-Cook

Won gold in the 200m breaststroke in Tokyo and had excellent success after that. Lost his world record to Qin Haiyang last year. Stubblety-Cook’s time of 2:07.4 in Brisbane was well outside his personal best (and former world record) of 2:05.95. He’s third-ranked in the world this year.

Australia’s Olympic swimming team for Paris 2024

44 athletes selected (pool and open water). 

Debut (22): Iona Anderson, Ben Armbruster, Jaclyn Barclay Jack Cartwright, Abbey Connor, Elizabeth Dekkers, Jenna Forrester, Maximillian Giuliani, Shayna Jack, Lani Pallister, Alexandria Perkins, Jamie Perkins, William Petric, Ella Ramsay, Samuel Short, Flynn Southam, Kai Taylor, Samuel Williamson, Bradley Woodward, Olivia Wunsch, William Yang, Joshua Yong. 

2nd Olympics (13): Isaac Cooper, Meg Harris, Zac Incerti, Se-Bom Lee, Kaylee McKeown, Thomas Neill, Mollie O’Callaghan, Brendon Smith, Jenna Strauch, Zac Stubblety-Cook, Matthew Temple, Ariarne Titmus, Elijah Winnington. 

3rd Olympics (3): Kyle Chalmers, Emma McKeon, Brianna Throssell. 

4th Olympics (2): Bronte Campbell, Cameron McEvoy.

Outside chances

There are plenty of other medal chances and some youngsters coming through who could make waves in Paris. For the women, Shayna Jack is an outside chance in the 50m freestyle, while Lizzy Dekkers, a world championship silver medallist, is flying under the radar in the women’s 200m butterfly. Max Giuliani, the second-fastest Australian 200m freestyler behind Ian Thorpe, would need a big personal best for a medal in that race, while Matt Temple isn’t out of the running for a podium finish in the 100m butterfly.

Australia’s best gold medal haul in the pool is the nine they won three years ago in Tokyo.

Sports news, results and expert commentary. Sign up for our Sport newsletter.