The six reasons Anthony Albanese could still go for an election this year (and get married soon after)

Anthony Albanese has repeatedly said he believes governments should serve full terms, and he intends to do so. He’s flagged an early-ish budget in March 2025, followed by a poll in May 2025. But with less than 12 months until an election is due, talk in Canberra about timing is growing.

Wednesday’s inflation figures, which saw a surprise rise to 3.6 per cent, means the likelihood of an interest rate cut this year has receded, though most economists still believe the next move by the Reserve Bank will (eventually) be down.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese delivers a speech at Victorian Labor’s state conference in May.Credit: Wayne Taylor

Prime ministers go to the polls when they think they can win – one member of the cabinet told this masthead there’s a 50-50 chance an election will be held this year – and there are at least six good reasons why an early election is still possible.

1. Queensland's newish premier, Steven Miles, will lead state Labor to the polls on October 26, and after nearly a decade in power, the government is looking tired. Shamelessly pandering to voters with policies such as slashing the cost of public transport to just 50¢ is unlikely to save his government. Many in the ALP expect the Queensland Liberal National Party (LNP) to win – and a state Labor loss could actually help federal Labor, which holds a paltry five of 30 seats and is desperate to claim a few more. The caricature of Queensland as a redneck state that always votes conservative is inaccurate. Since 1989, the Queensland LNP has been in power at state level for just six years (three of them in minority) but has reliably sent a majority of federal LNP members to Canberra in nine of the 12 last federal elections. That suggests that Queenslanders are fans of competitive federalism and like to have governments from opposing sides at state and federal levels. So, if the LNP wins, that could help Anthony Albanese.

2. The Reserve Bank’s last chance to cut rates in 2024 will be at its November 5 meeting. Though inflation has started to rise again, it isn’t out of control – and if a rate cut is to happen in 2024, that final meeting is the most likely date. Political hardheads in the government insist Albanese won’t go to the polls without at least one rate cut under his belt, so pressure begins to come off household budgets. But there is a counterview among some MPs who argue that as inflation is trending down, a rate cut is at least on the horizon, wage growth continues to firm, and voters have a bit of extra money in their pockets because of the stage 3 tax cuts, Albanese could credibly argue the economy is headed in the right direction, and voters should stick with the incumbent.

Credit: Matt Davidson

3. November 5 is also the day that the US will vote for its next president and on current polling, Donald Trump looks set to return to the White House. While it may sound counterintuitive, a Trump win could actually help Albanese as it will allow the prime minister to argue that in an unstable world, and with our closest ally led by an unstable leader, voters should stick with Labor and trust it to stand up for the national interest.

4. After more than a decade of deficits from both major parties, Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher have handed down two consecutive budget surpluses. The Coalition will be able to argue that record revenues from coal and iron ore have underpinned those surpluses, and that’s true – but the previous Coalition government handed down nine consecutive deficits. If Labor goes full term, the next budget is forecast to be in a deficit of $28.3 billion – but if they go early, they can make a much simpler “better economic managers” argument.

5. The Coalition has made a couple of big announcements on immigration and housing, but the policy cupboard is still relatively threadbare. Work is under way on more, but policy development is harder in opposition. If Albanese went early, he would allow the opposition less time to do the detailed work needed, raising the risk of their making a fatal mistake in costings and allowing less time for the sales job. Fundraising is also harder in opposition, especially against a first-term government that has seen its popularity slip but which isn’t on the nose.

6. February’s Resolve Political Monitor showed 36 per cent of voters supported nuclear power, and 27 per cent of people were open to it, with just 23 per cent opposed and 15 per cent undecided. But once Labor cranks up a scare campaign and starts asking voters whether they want a nuclear power plant near their homes and schools and whether every household within 50km will be issued free iodine tablets in case of a nuclear meltdown, those poll numbers could change quickly - as they did with the Voice to parliament once a concrete proposal was put forward. It’s also unclear why voters in rural areas, who apparently don’t like solar farms and the construction of new transmission lines, would be fine with nuclear power plants. Back in 2007, Labor launched a successful campaign against John Howard’s plan for nuclear power in Australia. The person who helped lead that campaign? Anthony Albanese. And he hasn’t forgotten the lessons.

There is a range of other factors for Albanese to ponder that could impact election timing. What if Australia endures another summer of disastrous bushfires? What impact could the wars in Ukraine and Gaza have? Will he get a small bounce from Charles’ first visit as King in October? Will he want to go before or after the relatively popular WA state government faces voters on March 8, 2025? Will voters mark him down for going a few months early? What impact will seat redistributions in WA, Victoria and NSW have? What will give him the best chance to avoid a hung parliament? When will he find time to marry partner Jodie Haydon – and could that give him a bump in the polls?

The prime minister wants a domestic campaign to have as little crossover with the US election as possible, and the earliest Albanese can call an election is August 3. That means if there is to be a poll this year – if inflation is steady, if there is a chance of a rate cut in November or next February and if Trump looks set to win – there’s an outside chance that he takes the short drive to Government House and rolls the dice on a December 7 poll.

Doing so would leave the rest of December clear for the first-ever prime ministerial wedding on December 14 - and a couple of weeks honeymoon. A second election win would be quite a wedding present.

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