If the US election were held today, Trump would win

If the US election was today, Donald Trump would win. This week’s New York Times-Siena poll confirms trends reported over the past several months: Trump is leading President Joe Biden in almost all the key swing states that will determine the election – the same states that played that decisive role in 2016 for Trump over Hillary Clinton, and in 2020 for Biden’s making Trump a one-term president.

Trump leads Biden even in Pennsylvania – the state Biden has visited more than any other in this campaign – by three points, and in Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia by margins of seven to 12 points. Biden holds a two-point lead in Wisconsin.

Former president Donald Trump walks to the courtroom following a break in his trial at Manhattan criminal court on May 9.Credit: AP

If Trump carries Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, and either Michigan or Pennsylvania, he will win the Electoral College and the presidency.

Like the last New York Times-Siena poll in November, which showed Biden trailing in several swing states, this again rocked Washington’s political class, feeding uncertainty and fear among Democrats that Biden will lose, notwithstanding Trump’s sensational trial in Manhattan and his descent into even more wild and extreme behaviour.

Although Biden is effectively tied with Trump nationally, the state of the race is quite clear.

Trump’s base is fully intact. He crushed his opponents in the Republican primaries – from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to Nikki Haley, Trump’s one-time UN ambassador – with 70 to 80 per cent of Republican voters locked in. But Biden is haemorrhaging support – most especially from young voters, black men, and Hispanic voters. He is tied with voters under 30 and Hispanic voters – which he carried by huge margins four years ago. Some polls show double-digit erosion of black voters for Biden.

The biggest factor affecting Biden is simply his age. Eighty per cent of voters believe he is too old to serve a second term, while only 55 per cent see Trump the same way. It is a huge speed bump for a fellow who is 81.

Biden is adamant that he will win. He told donors last week: “While the press doesn’t write about it, the momentum is clearly in our favour, with the polls moving towards us and away from Trump.”

But does he have that momentum? The top issues are inflation and immigration – big winners for Trump. These polls reflect Trump’s pushing those buttons and reaping the payoff of steady support in the face of all the turbulence Trump generates.

Trump’s New York trial is every bit as salacious and tawdry as advertised. Trump is bringing in the cavalry. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, several senators and prospective vice-presidential picks are now part of the Trump entourage before the bar of justice. They come out of the courtroom and make statements that Trump dares not to say himself lest he be thrown in the slammer for contempt. The trial is “corrupt”, Johnson said. “It is election interference, and the American people are not going to let this stand.”

Trump is completely unplugged. Time magazine has him on the record: states should be able to monitor women’s pregnancies and their terminations to determine whether state abortion laws have been broken. He will command the biggest deportation of immigrants in American history and bring in the military to execute it. Trump will use the National Guard to control protesters. Civil servants will sign loyalty oaths. He will have complete control over the Justice Department and who it prosecutes. Trump will stand up for white people. “I think there is a definite anti-white feeling in this country, and that can’t be allowed.”

Trump goes even further in closed-door meetings. In Florida last week, he spoke about Biden to contributors. “These people are running a Gestapo administration,” he said, adding that Biden is “the worst president in the history of our country. He’s grossly incompetent. He’s crooked as hell. He’s the Manchurian candidate.”

Former president Jimmy Carter has called political campaign contributions “legalised bribery”. Trump last month took transactional politics to a new level. He asked oil and gas executives for $1 billion in campaign contributions in exchange for a rollback of Biden’s energy and environmental policies. Trump said this would be a “deal”.

While this race is static, there are two coming inflection points. When the Trump trial jury reaches a verdict, there will be a reset on his standing. If convicted, will Trump lose support? For Biden, beyond the structural weaknesses in his campaign today, he faces two foreign policy crises that can do him real harm. If the war in Gaza is not ended soon, and if Russia is within reach of military victory in Ukraine, then Biden, the president with enormous foreign policy expertise, will own those failures.

Trump increasingly says that he kept the United States out of war during his presidency. With the world going to hell, this may be his killer advantage come November.

Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.

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